📈 The Rookie QB Screaming Up Boards

The enemy speaks kindly & holds a knife...

In today’s Fantasy Life Newsletter:

The NFL combine kicked off yesterday with players starting to trickle into Indianapolis for what old sportswriters love to call "The Underwear Olympics" while lightly chuckling to themselves behind their keyboards.

With all due respect to the defensive players, the real fun will begin later in the week when the QBs, WRs, TEs, and RBs get measured and participate in their on-field workouts, including the 40-yard dash, 3-cone drill, bench press, and vertical jump.

One of the most anticipated players to watch this weekend is 21 year-old Florida QB, Anthony Richardson.

Early consensus and mock drafts placed him at QB4, firmly behind Bryce Young, C.J. Stroud, and Will Levis, but there's some recent steam indicating that he is quickly moving up draft boards.

In his most recent piece, Peter King spoke with an NFL evaluator who said Richardson has "clearly the best upside" and then Daniel Jeremiah said NFL teams currently view him as the 2nd best QB prospect.

Over at BetMGM, he's now tied with Levis at +700 to be the first player off the board:

He's also been screaming up Underdog draft boards with his current ADP up 31-plus slots to 178.7 after initially opening up 209.8.

Richardson fits a high-risk, high-reward profile at QB similar to what we've seen with other tools-y QBs like Justin Fields and Trey Lance.

It's an intoxicating combination that both NFL franchises and fantasy drafters are willing to gamble on. The stakes are just a smidge higher for GM's. If we miss? Well, there's always another team to draft...

The NFL offseason is now in full swing with coaching changes, free agency and the NFL draft reshaping the 2023 fantasy football landscape. With that in mind, the Fantasy Life squad is breaking down every NFL team to determine what went wrong in 2022 and identify paths to improvement. LaMarca is here to take on our next project, the Steelers...

 👷 Team Summary

The Pittsburgh Steelers are the model of consistency. While some teams churn through head coaches like I churn through cartons of ice cream, the Steelers have somehow had only three head coaches since 1969. That is remarkable. Chuck Noll led the squad for 23 years, followed by Bill Cowher for another 15.

Mike Tomlin has been at the helm since 2007, and in his 16 years as head coach, the team has never posted a losing record. Even in what was largely a subpar season for them last year, the team won six of their final seven games to finish 9-8.

The Steelers have also historically been a team with tremendous stability at quarterback. Guys like Terry Bradshaw and Ben Roethlisberger have guided the team through their golden eras, and now Kenny Pickett will get his opportunity. He wasn’t overly impressive as a rookie, but he had enough positive moments to give the team some optimism moving forward.

What do the Steelers have to do to get back into the playoffs next season?

Let’s break it down.

🚧 Fantasy Fixer Recommendations

1. Set Kenny Pickett Up for Success

On the surface, Pickett’s numbers were ultimately pretty disappointing. He finished with more interceptions (nine) than touchdown passes (seven), and he averaged just 5.5 adjusted yards per attempt. That ranked dead-last among 33 qualified passers.

However, Pickett displayed one of the most useful traits that a young quarterback can possess: fearlessness.

He engineered four game-winning drives in his 12 starts, and he delivered some beautiful passes when they were most needed:

Pickett’s passing numbers are also only part of the story. He’s a capable runner, racking up 237 yards and three scores on the ground in the 2022 season. No one is going to confuse him with Michael Vick, but his 4.73 40-yard dash time puts him in the 75th percentile at the quarterback position.

Add it all up and Pickett graded out pretty well at the position. He ranked 18th among 39 quarterbacks, putting him in the same ballpark as guys like Daniel Jones (17th), Jared Goff (20th), and Dak Prescott (21st). Those players are all going to cost their respective teams way more money than Pickett next season – especially if Jones is really asking for $45M per year – which puts the Steelers in a solid spot at the position.

Now, the Steelers need to do everything possible to maximize the rest of their roster.

The Steelers are currently in the middle of the pack in terms of cap space, checking in just slightly above the expected figure of $224.8M.

However, they should be able to open up additional spending room. Cutting the disappointing Chuma Okorafor – who ranked 61st out of 81 qualified tackles – would open up nearly $7M, and releasing Miles Jack would free up another $8M. They could also choose to move on from Mitch Trubisky, saving the team an additional $8M. Add some restructured contracts to the mix, and the Steelers should be able to get themselves well below the cap.

That should allow the team to be aggressive in free agency.

I would start by looking at the offensive line, which was merely average last season. Specifically, both of their offensive tackles ranked 57th or worse per PFF, while their interior blockers were much more respectable.

Orlando Brown Jr. is considered one of the biggest prizes in free agency, and he would be a huge upgrade if the Steelers could land him. Jawaan Taylor, Mike McGlinchey, and Kaleb McGary would also be solid additions, with all three players ranking inside the top 20 on CBS Sports’ free agent big board.

The team could also certainly use another pass-catcher. Diontae Johnson is a very dependable chain-mover, and George Pickens turned in a solid rookie season.

The reality is that the team lacks a true No. 1 option at the position. Both players were outside the top-44 at receiver per PFF, and the cupboard is pretty bare behind them.

The Steelers have a long track record of success when it comes to drafting receivers, so don’t be surprised if they take another shot at the position in 2023. The team has two second-round picks – No. 32 and No. 49 – and there are plenty of talented pass-catchers who could be available in that range.

Somebody like Kayshon Boutte would be an interesting fit. He is a freak athlete who should test exceptionally well at the combine, and he would give the Steelers a legit burner at the position. Overall, he seems like the perfect complement to a route-running specialist like Johnson and a big-bodied threat like Pickens.

We have TWO more recommendations for the Steelers' front office brass.

👋 Carson Wentz released by the Commanders. It's been a bumpy few years.

💸 Is Lamar Jackson really worth $45 million per year? Dwain explains.

🖌️ CeeDee Lamb gets new ink. 4 artists at once?!

🏃‍♂️ The Broncos need to win NOW. A birds eye view of 2023 draft capital by team.

🔪 The enemy speaks kindly & holds a knife. A.J. Brown knows the fantasy inside jokes.

😆 This coach is taking a year off. Some would say that he started his sabbatical during the playoffs...

Fantasy managers are quick to forget and are even quicker to move on. Sam Wallace looks at players dynasty managers should not forget about as we head into the fantasy football offseason.

“Hope is a dangerous thing. Hope can drive a man insane.”

It’s one of my favorite quotes from The Shawshank Redemption, an objectively good movie (editor, please confirm; editor: confirmed).

It also perfectly captures how most fantasy managers approach the TE position.

We know who the elite options are, but outside of a select few, all we can do is hope one of our many late-round options breaks out. Unfortunately, more often than not, our hope is crushed.

But I’m choosing to soldier on this offseason as I stan for Trey McBride of the Arizona Cardinals.

McBride was the top-drafted TE last year (55th overall) and was the 2021 recipient of John Mackey Award, presented to college football’s most outstanding tight end.

His rookie season began like most rookies at the tight end position...

He tallied just nine receptions across four games heading into his Week 13 bye. However, an injury to fellow TE Zach Ertz opened the door for McBride to finish his season strong.

From Weeks 14-18, McBride posted impressive per game numbers:

• 9.6 PPR

• 5.6 targets

• 4.0 receptions

• 43.8 receiving yards

• 15% target share

It’s also worth noting he did all that without QB Kyler Murray who left Week 14 with a torn ACL. Murray remains without a definitive timetable and there’s a real chance he misses the early portion of the 2023 season.

Another key status to watch is that of WR DeAndre Hopkins.

The 30-year-old wideout “carries a $30 million cap hit in 2023” that will need adjusting in some fashion. He’s also been the center of trade rumors even though new General Manager Monti Ossenfort has expressed his desire to retain Hopkins.

Despite the offseason uncertainty surrounding the Cardinals, who also have a new Head Coach in Jonathan Gannon, McBride showed enough to be a key component of this offense moving forward.

Both Murray (ACL) and Ertz (ACL/MCL) have open-ended timetables for their respective returns. McBride should open training camp as the No. 1 option and will work to establish chemistry with whoever the signal caller is in Murray’s stead.

Courtesy of Underdog Fantasy, McBride has a “2023 Way Too Early” ADP of TE22. I love that price and I think it allows you to build a unique roster with upside. Dynasty managers shouldn’t be afraid to draft him ahead of ADP before any off-season news changes the team’s outlook moving forward.

I’m willing to place my hope in McBride. It might be dangerous but the reward outweighs the risk.