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I spend my offseasons like any other fantasy degenerate would: Celebrating the wins and licking my wounds.
But I just can't help myself. Because every offseason I preach about the pitfalls of drafting rookies in August, and yet I still draft too many rookies way too early.
Do as I say, not as I do. OK?
Lesson No. 1: The Henderson Hellscape
TreVeyon Henderson had only five top-20 finishes at the position. Five. And yet, managers drafted him in the first four rounds.
While we could go on to blame Mike Vrabel (it sure would feel good), I don't think—Well, no. Actually, let's blame him a little.
In games where Rhamondre Stevenson played, Henderson outsnapped Stevenson only three times. Three. DESPITE Stevenson's fumbles and terrible ball protection early in the season.
And anytime the HC was asked about the infuriatingly unpredictable usage, Vrabel played coy.
But shame on me, right? I told myself last offseason to temper my expectations with rookies.
And even though we did get a tiny, three-week stint of Cowbell-like usage out of Henderson in Weeks 9-11 while Stevenson was out, those 21 electrifying days still didn't make Henderson's early-round price tag worth it. Though I'm sure it felt good for the managers who didn't trade Henderson away in a fit of rage after Week 7.
I wouldn't know.
Lesson No. 2: Jeanty Fever
"First-Round Ashton Jeanty" feels a little silly now, doesn't it? While Jeanty had the college footage and the confidence to back up his astronomically high ADP, it didn't shake out to be worth it in the end.
Because no matter how you sort the spreadsheets, by "total points" or "average points per game" or "standard" scoring or "full-point PPR," … It doesn't make a f*cking difference. Jeanty never cracks the top 10.
Sure, Jeanty (10) finished with more TDs on the year than Saquon Barkley (9) and Justin Jefferson (2). But when you look back at your draftboards to see Jonathan Taylor, Amon-Ra St. Brown and Puka Nacua hovering within a few picks of where you took Jeanty … It's hard not to wonder what might have turned out differently. Maybe one small change like that could have won your home league??
I wouldn't know.
Lesson No. 3: Less Is More
Hindsight is 20/20. I get that. I'm not naive. The real message I'm trying to put to paper for my future self is: Draft fewer rookies (do as I say, not as I do. Remember?).
So if you want to take your chances on next year's Ashton Jeanty, go for it! But diversify your rookie risk-taking across different leagues. You don't need to draft Jeanty, TreVeyon Henderson and Jayden Higgins all onto the same team. Who knows? If you slow down on the rookies, maybe it won't sting as much to watch the veterans flourishing during the season.
I wouldn't know.
No Rookie Mistakes With This 5-Year Guarantee
Sure, you may have made some mistakes with TreVeyon Henderson or Ashton Jeanty. If you drafted them in dynasty leagues, you still have hope, but their long-term outlook may be dimmer than it was last summer. If only there were a way to guarantee reliability for them long-term. That’s exactly what the Xfinity 5-Year Price Guarantee means for your wallet: one monthly price, set for five full years of reliable WiFi, with no strings attached. No mid-season price hikes. No scrambling to adjust. Just peace of mind knowing your connection—and your cost—will go the distance.
Sports can be unpredictable, but your internet price doesn’t have to be. One price. Five years. Guaranteed.
Fantasy
Freedman’s Case For Ja’Marr Chase at 1.01
Super Bowl 61 ended not even a week ago, but when it comes to fantasy football, there's no such thing as an offseason.
So here's a way-too-early 2026 fantasy football mock draft for Round 1.
In terms of how I view Round 1, I think there's a tier drop-off after the guys in the top six.
1.01: WR Ja'Marr Chase (Bengals)
A few weeks ago, Dwain McFarland (our Director of Analytics) and I got together for an episode of Talk Data to Me in which we discussed league trends that have emerged over the past 2-5 years, one of which is this: Passing is down.
And it's especially impacting non-elite WRs.
Here's what I think that means for fantasy: WR1s, especially top-tier WR1s, might be more valuable than ever.
And that means I want to take Ja'Marr Chase at the 1.01.
Framed differently: If I take Chase at 1.01, I think I'll still get an RB I like at 2.12.
But if I take an RB at 1.01—let's say Bijan Robinson or maybe Jahmyr Gibbs—I probably won't like the WRs available there as much as I like the RBs.
Additionally, there's a case to be made for Chase at the 1.01 anyway, regardless of whoever is available in Rounds 2-3.
Even with the recent decline in passing, Chase's usage has actually increased over the past two years (in terms of targets per game).
2023: 9.1
2024: 10.3
2025: 11.6
Since 2024, Chase is easily No. 1 in the league with 360 targets. Unsurprisingly, he's also No. 1 in receptions (252), receiving yards (3,120) and receiving TDs (25).
In most leagues, I expect Chase not to go No. 1.
And I'm not even saying he should go No. 1.
But a case can be made for it—and in this mock, I wanted to go through the mental exercise of thinking about what my team might look like if I were to select him first.
And I think in most leagues if I take Chase at 1.01, I'll be able to get two RBs I like at the turn of Rounds 2-3: Maybe Saquon Barkley, Josh Jacobs, Derrick Henry and/or Chase Brown.
I don't hate that idea.
Fantasy
Around The Watercooler
The latest fantasy and NFL gossip, news, memes and more from our merry band of football nerds …
🙌 Are contested catches a good thing for evaluating WR prospects? Food for thought.
👀 Who’s Pete “buying the motherf$%#ing dip” on in 2026? We’re all in.
🐆 It can’t be Bryce to T-Mac all day in Carolina. Who can they get?
📈 Updated dynasty rankings … how high is too high for this second-year RB?
📉 What a fall from grace. Prepare to sell this once-ascending WR.
📝 ICYMI: Trinidad Chambliss is returning to school. What could’ve been.
🔮 Where do you take CMC in the first round? So many possibilities.
🤩 Projecting our NFL Mock Draft for Dynasty? There could be some stars.
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