🏈 The Ridiculous History of QB Pro Days

Scholars maintain Uncle Rico still has the greatest pro day workout in the history of football…

In today’s Fantasy Life Newsletter presented by BetMGM:

It’s natural to get excited about relatively meaningless events during the NFL offseason.

What else are we supposed to do during the dog days of March? Interact with other humans in real life? No thanks.

Things like free agency and the NFL Draft warrant extensive media treatment considering their impact on all 32 rosters (check out our free agency tracker for analysis on every fantasy-relevant signing!).

Even the combine is useful in gathering measurements and test scores from prospects; it makes sense that NFL teams want to obtain as much information as possible about the very people they’re considering paying millions upon millions of dollars.

That said: We live in a world where far less meaningful events still find a way to dominate the news cycle. The NFL has made an annual circus out of releasing the schedule, for crying out loud.

The one off-season event that grinds my gears like no other when it comes to unnecessary media attention: QB pro days.

What’s more impressive: CJ Stroud throwing a deep ball to an uncovered teammate in shorts, or 60 minutes of him eviscerating the best defense college football had to offer?

Conducting physicals and interviewing players is all fine and well, but miss me with the idea that any of these throws on air provide newfound information on QBs that wasn’t readily available beforehand – especially considering the reviews are always sparkling.

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🍴 Ezekiel Elliott’s list of preferred future teams: Are we positive this isn’t a bit?

🧑🏿‍⚕️ Another Bronco WR goes down. Injuries suck, man.

🛑 The NFL warned teams about negotiating with Lamar Jackson’s alleged agent Ken Francis. Lamar responded.

😢 WE WANT BIG PLAYS. This defense stuff can be annoying.

❓ The Giants had a busy offseason. But will it be enough?

🏀 One very important question from CJ Stroud’s Ohio State Pro Day: Could he beat Josh McCown in a game of horse?

✈️ This QB stat will SURPRISE YOU. Survivorship bias is a helluva drug.

🐱 Important Lamar Jackson update: Can you find the cat?

The NFL Draft is fast approaching, so it's time to dig into the 2023 rookie class. Today Jonathan Fuller profiles a prospect tentatively expected to be a top-four QB off the board...

💪 Will Levis

• Superflex Rookie Draft ADP: 7

• Underdog ADP: 216.2

Will Levis is one of the more controversial prospects who is expected to be a first-round pick in this class. He has all the physical tools to play at a high level in the NFL, but his on-field production has been inconsistent.

He began his career at Penn State before transferring to Kentucky, where he started for two seasons. His per-game numbers were pretty similar in each season, but any scouting report you read will quickly point out that his play was much worse in 2022, even if the numbers don’t fully reflect it.

• 2021: 2,826 pass yards, 8 yards per attempt, 24 TD, 13 INT

• 2022: 2,406 pass yards, 8.5 yards per attempt, 19 TD, 10 INT

He faced several obstacles in the 2022 season, most notably injuries and a severe drop-off in talent around him. While that is important context for some of his struggles, there are also issues that aren’t so easily explained away.

📈 Pros

💪 Arm Talent

Levis has all the arm talent you could ever want. He can absolutely sling it. NFL teams will love his ability to throw to all three levels and stretch the defense vertically.

He throws with good velocity and has the ability to fit the ball in tight windows when playing with confidence. He can make off-balance throws look effortless and make difficult throws while on the move.

His release is quick and efficient, which will serve him well at the next level. There are very few questions about his physical abilities, so it will be no surprise if a team falls in love with his raw traits with the belief they can develop him into an elite QB.

🏃 Athleticism

Sure, he’s no Anthony Richardson, but don’t sleep on Levis’s athleticism. He played a Taysom Hill-esque role at Penn State and proved to be a capable rusher during his time at Kentucky.

He won’t be a dynamic runner in the NFL, but he is mobile enough to hurt defenses if they give him space. At 6’4” and 230lbs, he should also be a threat with his legs near the goal line, which could boost his fantasy value if he can add a handful of rushing TDs to his stat line each year.

🤕 Toughness

I’m going to criticize his 2022 performance in the next section, but it is worth noting that he played through a variety of injuries for nearly the entire season.

This hasn’t been lost on the NFL scouting world, and there have been numerous quotes praising his toughness and competitive drive. Not only will that be important for getting a team to invest a high pick in him, but it should also help his teammates buy into him as the face of the franchise.

📉 Cons

🧠 Decision Making

The biggest flaw in Levis’s game is his erratic decision-making post-snap. All too often, he appears to second guess what he is seeing and either holds the ball and misses his window or stares down a target for too long, allowing defenders to make a play.

Per PFF, he was the only one of the top QB prospects in this class to have more turnover-worthy plays than big-time throws in 2022. In fact, Levis graded out as having as many big-time throws in his college career (25) as C.J. Stroud had in 2022 alone. Those are the kinds of throws he will need to make regularly in the NFL, and his underwhelming numbers in college should be a reason for concern.

It might seem strange to question his ability to make big-time throws after praising his remarkable arm talent, but the missing ingredient is timing. Levis can absolutely make all the throws, but whether he can consistently make the right reads and deliver the ball on time is an entirely different matter.

👴🏼 Age

Levis will turn 24 in June, making him the oldest of the consensus top-4 QB prospects in this draft class. To be clear, this isn’t a career longevity concern but a developmental concern.

Younger prospects are generally viewed as having a higher ceiling for growth. If Levis were a polished prospect with some physical limitations, it would be easier to overlook. Instead, he is still a raw prospect who needs to improve in some fundamental areas.

The poor decision-making discussed above is extra concerning in light of his age. That is not to say he can’t figure it out, but the fact that he seems to be far worse at processing the game and making good decisions than his younger counterparts is a major red flag.

🍌 Food Choices

Alright, this one is 90% a joke, but eating bananas with the peel on, putting mayo in coffee, and a supposed fear of milk are some seriously strange food habits. I’m not necessarily saying that bad decisions in the kitchen lead to bad decisions on the football field, but I’m not not saying it either.

At the very least, I urge his future WRs to think twice before starting one of those breakfast clubs that have been all the rage, thanks to Matthew Stafford and Cooper Kupp.

🔮 Fantasy Impact

The NFL seems to be higher on Will Levis than the fantasy football community is. He is widely expected to go as a top-10 pick and has been linked to teams like the Raiders and Colts in recent weeks.

The biggest question is whether Levis will get the chance to start right away or if he will have to sit behind a veteran. The Raiders, for example, expect Jimmy Garoppolo to be their starter in 2023 and might feel comfortable letting Levis sit for a year if they draft him.

Where he lands will go a long way to determining his redraft value. For dynasty purposes, I currently have Levis ranked as my QB4 in this class, and it is difficult to see him moving up or down unless the NFL Draft goes very differently than I expect.