A Record Day of NFL Trades

Do NFL GMs share screenshots of bad trade offers like fantasy managers? h/t

In today’s Fantasy Life Newsletter presented by Select Quote:

The NFL trade deadline did not disappoint, with a record-setting 12 players moved!

Let's take a look at the transactions with the most impact on this fantasy season.

✈️ Nyheim Hines to the Bills

Buffalo coveted a pass-catching back this offseason, going after J.D. McKissic and Chase Edmonds and drafting James Cook in Round 2 of the NFL Draft. Hines ranks highly in multiple receiving metrics versus his peers over the last four years.

• Targets per route run (TPRR): 26% (4th)

• Average depth of target (ADOT): 1.7 (7th)

• PFF receiving grade: 90.7 (4th)

Expect Hines to take over the passing-down work in the Bills' pass-first offense and create matchup nightmares. No player has stepped up to demand a large target share behind Stefon Diggs, so there is room for Hines to carve out significant looks. The veteran back is a high-end RB3 with RB2 upside. Go make sure he isn't on your waiver wire — he was available in 45% of Yahoo! Leagues before Tuesday night waivers.

Devin Singletary is stuck in no-mans-land. With Josh Allen always a threat to steal rushing TDs and passing downs headed to Hines, Singletary becomes a mid-range RB3.

Cook can be released in all formats. 😢

Jonathan Taylor should see an increase in passing-down opportunities. Hines was a player coaches needed to get on the field as a mismatch chess piece — Deon Jackson and Zack Moss (part of the trade) are not. Taylor has overall RB1 upside again once healthy.

✈️ Chase Claypool to the Bears

Justin Fields is the No. 1 winner in this deal. Over the last four games he has averaged 10.5 rushing attempts — which already placed him in the low-end QB1 tier — and now could improve in the passing game. Fields has mid-range QB1 upside after this move.

Claypool has less target competition in Chicago, but he leaves a Steelers team that ranked sixth in pass rate on plays with the game within three points in regulation play.

The Bears rank 31st in pass rate with the score within three points. and are willing to continue to pound the rock even when trailing (30th). So, Claypool picks up some theoretical upside but needs the Bears to throw the ball more. He remains a boom-bust WR4, similar to Darnell Mooney.

Pat Freiermuth will have less competition for underneath targets, with Claypool no longer manning the slot in Pittsburgh. He could force his way into the mid-range TE1 conversation soon.

✈️ T.J. Hockenson to the Vikings

Kirk Cousins picks up a third quality target to go along with Justin Jefferson and Adam Thielen. The Vikings throw the ball above the NFL average in leading (5th), close (7th) and trailing (5th) game scripts — they rank 11th in non-overtime dropbacks per game. Cousins is a low-end QB1 with a mid-range QB1 upside moving forward.

Hockenson is a quality target earner but not elite, which becomes problematic when playing with alpha options like Jefferson. He will be the second or third option most weeks and remains a mid-range TE1 option.

D'Andre Swift is already earning targets with a 23.5% target rate (TPRR) but could earn some extra looks in the short passing game with Hockenson moving on. Swift hasn't eclipsed 27% of rushing attempts in his last three games. Any additional touches he can generate help while we await the return of his robust Week 1 workload.

James Mitchell hasn't played much this year but is a name to watch in Detroit as the replacement for Hockenson. He is a stash TE2 option that could surprise.

✈️ Jeff Wilson Jr. to the Miami Dolphins

Raheem Mostert gets stronger competition for touches after Chase Edmonds flamed out (traded to Denver). Mostert is a low-end RB2 for now, but this could turn into more of a 50/50 split or even a hot-hand scenario. Mostert gets a slight downgrade to low-end RB2 status.

Wilson had no shot at taking work from Christian McCaffrey, and the depth chart was much more congested in San Francisco. Now he has a path to earn touches and is the clear-cut No. 2 in an explosive offense. He is an RB4 with a contingent RB2 upside and was available in 65% of Yahoo! Leagues before waivers.

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Volume is king in fantasy football and sports betting, and this report will help you understand which players are due more or less according to their roles. Each week, Dwain dives deep into the data, so you don't have to.

 💰 Buy High

💰 RB – Dameon Pierce

Pierce has dominated touches on the ground (77%), which has been enough to keep his fantasy value in the high-end RB2 range. However, he could soon be even more valuable after taking over the two-minute offense in Week 8.

The change led to a 78% snap share in a game where the Texans trailed by four-plus points on 61% of plays. He posted a season-high 59% route participation. His target rate (24%) is already RB1-worthy, and now his route participation is trending toward RB1 territory.

Whoever has Pierce on their roster won’t be willing to sell low, but he probably isn’t untouchable after RB18 and RB21 finishes. Now is a great time to put in a trade offer. If this is a one-week blip in the data, you still get a high-end RB2. If it is the beginning of a trend, you have a top-six RB profile on your hands.

📈 Upgrades

📈 WR – Rondale Moore

Moore has taken over the No. 2 role in Arizona with a 95% route participation since Week 5. Despite the return of A.J. Green and the arrival of Robbie Anderson, the second-year WR has secured an every-down role and has eight-plus targets in three out of four games. 

Marquise Brown will return between Week 12 and 16, but that is a wide range of outcomes. Moore will lose targets when Brown returns, but placing a chip on a young ascending WR is still a good move – especially if Brown misses more time than expected. Moore is available in 63% of Yahoo! leagues.

• FAB: 15-25%

📈 WR – DJ Moore

Moore moves back into the low-end WR2 conversation after 27.5 and 19.6-point fantasy performances. His underlying data from the first six games is night and day versus the last two:

• First-six games target share: 24%

• Last-two games target share: 38%

• First-six games catchable targets: 57% (-19 vs. NFL average)

• Last-two games catchable targets: 76%

While playing the splits game in small samples can be dangerous, we know Moore is a high-quality talent – he has proven that in every underlying receiving metric over his career – and the departure of Christian McCaffrey and Robbie Anderson leaves a lot of targets up for grabs.

The Panthers' offense won’t suddenly become a juggernaut, but in a potential funnel offense, all we need is a QB to play at an average to below-average level. PJ Walker is providing that right now – making Moore a low-end WR2 with upside.

📈 WR – Garrett Wilson

Wilson has hit season-highs in route participation in the last two games, with Elijah Moore in the doghouse and Corey Davis sidelined.

Wilson leads the team in TPRR (21%), target share (21%) and YPRR (1.76) – all positive signs for the first-round rookie, who should continue to operate in a lead role even once Davis returns (14% TPRR).

The Jets’ offense has been problematic due to their ability to stick to the run game in leading scripts. However, as bad as Zach Wilson has been, he showed the ability to put up counting numbers (355 yards and 2 TDs passing) when forced in Week 8.

He also makes a great buy-low option and is available in 48% of Yahoo! Leagues. Wilson is a low-end WR3 with WR2 upside.

📉 Downgrades

📉 TE – Tyler Higbee

Higbee left the game briefly with a neck injury but ended up playing 69% of snaps. His route participation hit a season-low of 37%, with the veteran staying in to block on 24% of passing plays. 

Higbee’s routes have been in free fall for three weeks, and the Rams offense is struggling – making him a mid-range TE2 until we see something change.

🏡 Try supporting your household on fantasy football. Family dynamics get real.

✂️ Could we still see the Rams move on from Cam Akers? It isn't a cap issue.

🤯 14 trades in one day? No problem. Marcas & Dwain from the Fantasy Life Podcast get you caught up. 

📈 Vintage Alvin Kamara has returned, but can he keep it up? Find out why things have trended in his direction.

❤️️ RIP Sweetness. One of the best ever.

👀 Who knew this WR was a TE2? He is really built for it.

👑 He is on track to do it again. Kings stay kings.

🤔 You won't believe it. But this QB has been one of the most efficient downfield passers this season. 

🥇 This was a great Tweet in 2017. It remains undefeated today.

🎱 Does Peyton Manning have a time machine? Signs point to yes.

Each week we'll feature a premiere matchup on the slate and break it down from all angles. Today, Chris Allen tackles the Vikings/Packers Week 9 tilt...

If you asked me, I’d say these teams look like two franchises who sold everything to win a Super Bowl. And now they’re paying for it. The Rams “eff them picks” mentality brought them a Lombardi last season, but Odell Beckham and Von Miller aren’t walking through the door this year. However, there’s some potential help against Tampa’s defense already on the team outside Cooper Kupp.

Rams

Matt Stafford has probably aged an extra two years in the last two months. He’s taken the third-most sacks of any quarterback and crossed the 300-yard threshold just once. Los Angeles is 26th in yards per drive, and Kupp’s not at full strength. The breakfast-club duo could use an extra set of hands on the field. Maybe Allen Robinson can redeem himself.

Yes, the same Allen Robinson who didn’t total 100 receiving yards after the first month of the season. But he’s shown signs of life before and after their bye. Week 6 was the first time he ranked in the top 20 receivers in yards per route run (YPRR, min 5 targets). It could’ve been a flash of the old Robinson, but he came out the bye strong.

Other than Kupp, Robinson was the only other receiver to earn a target out of the slot in Week 8. Stafford converted three key third-down attempts with Robinson as his target. 

Buccaneers

Tom Brady could use some help in the passing game. It’s a tough idea to square, given their offseason acquisitions. Julio Jones signing with the team seemed like the cherry on top. But as the injuries have piled up, so have the disappointments.

Mike Evans and Chris Godwin are the only receivers with more than 250 yards on the season. Cole Beasley has the third-highest YPRR at 1.70. He played two games. The lack of efficiency from the ancillary options condenses the offense to a few options. However, against the Rams, only one sticks out.

Wideouts with roles on the interior have been the answer for passing games against Los Angeles. In Week 1, Stefon Diggs (8-122-1) moved all over the formation to keep the chains moving. Marquise Brown torched them for 140 scoreless yards in Week 3. Even without Deebo Samuel, Kyle Shanahan was able to scheme up intermediate routes for Brandon Aiyuk (6-81-1) last Sunday. Godwin projects as the better option, given the matchup. But it won’t matter unless the Bucs fix their running game.

* minimum 60 carries

Tampa had a 61.1% early-down passing rate in neutral situations in 2021. It’s 56.6% this season, but Leonard Fournette has less to show for his efforts. Other than success rate, he ranks bottom 12 in every rushing metric. Luckily, he’s in Brady’s circle of trust.

Fournette’s 1.22 YPRR ranks 15th amongst all running backs (min 15 targets) per PFF. He’s fourth in routes run through the team’s losing streak. Rachaad White’s 0.25 TPRR is steadily encroaching on the vet’s territory. And against the Rams’ defensive front (top 3 in rushing EPA allowed and success rate), their receiving skillset will be critical to Tampa preventing a four-game slide.

When it comes to regression, it pays to be ahead of the curve. Each week on Regression Session, Jonathan will give you actionable insights on trends that are unlikely to continue so you can act before your leaguemates.

📈 Positive Regression - Gerald Everett

This is a unique circumstance where we may see both positive regression in efficiency at the same time that Gerald Everett’s role expands. The Chargers are decimated at WR with Mike Williams out at least a month and Keenan Allen nursing a hamstring injury that has limited him to just two appearances this season.

Everett started the season well but saw his efficiency fall off in the three weeks leading up to the Chargers’ Week 8 bye. Per PFF, in Weeks 1-4, he averaged 8.4 yards per target on 6.25 targets per game and scored 2 TDs. From Week 5-7, he still averaged 6 targets per game but managed just 5.2 yards per target and didn’t score in that stretch.

Coming out of the bye, Everett should be one of the top weapons in the Chargers' offense and could see his weekly target volume grow. If he is able to deliver something closer to his career average yards per target of 7.4 and find the endzone a few times, he should be a solid top 8 TE option each week. 

📉 Negative Regression - D’Onta Foreman

D’Onta Foreman has been elite since the Panthers traded Christian McCaffrey. He is the RB3 in half PPR scoring over the past two weeks with 263 total yards and 3 TDs. These performances made him a waiver-wire hero, but it is important to set realistic expectations going forward. 

The Panthers seem to want to see what they have in Chuba Hubbard, who got the start in Week 7 before injuring his ankle. His absence in Week 8 allowed Foreman to see 26 carries in a workhorse role. Hubbard should be back soon, which will cut into Foreman’s workload. Additionally, Foreman has had almost no role in the passing game, which could cause him to get game-scripted out of certain matchups.

Finally, while PJ Walker has brought life to this Panthers offense, we should still expect them to be among the league's worst over the rest of the season. A committee back in a bad offense is unlikely to sustain high-level RB1 production and is a prime candidate for regression.