🌎 RBs Make the (Fantasy) World Go Round

Cross “Richard Sherman joining Skip Bayless on Undisputed” off your 2023 bingo cards…

In today’s Fantasy Life Newsletter presented by the Betting Life Discord:

There are still quite a few RB dominoes left to (hopefully) fall before Week 1.

From big-name available free agents, to early-round holdout candidates: It’s a scary time for fantasy football managers to believe in Murphy’s Law.

That said: Three key events unfolded on Monday as 30 teams continued to get ready for their first preseason action of 2023.

👀 Free agent RB Kareem Hunt visited the Saints Monday evening

This comes after:

1. Alvin Kamara was suspended for three games.

2. Eno Benjamin suffered a torn Achilles.

The former Chiefs and Browns talent spent his entire career putting up elite tackle-breaking numbers … until last year.

• 2017: No. 4 in missed tackles forced per carry, No. 13 in yards after contact per carry

• 2018: No. 4, No. 11

• 2019: No. 1, No. 41

• 2020: No. 28, No. 14

• 2021: No. 3, No. 12

• 2022: No. 40, No. 38

28 in August, it’s certainly possible Hunt has already played the best football of his career and is no longer the same dynamic threat in the pass-and-run game, although the veteran deserves some level of credit for managing to rank 16th in explosive run-play rate and 10th in PFF receiving grade last season.

Ultimately, adding Hunt to the equation would be great for the Saints’ real-life problems – they need RB help after all – but pretty f*cking far from okay for fantasy managers of all parties involved.

The expected early-season two-back committee of Jamaal Williams and Kendre Miller would grow to three, and there’s no telling if Hunt could work his way into the regular rotation in Week 4 and beyond with some good performances.

😔 Browns RB Jerome Ford (hamstring) was injured in Monday’s practice

Take my eyes but not Ford’s hamstring.

The Browns’ rising second-year RB was expected to work as Nick Chubb’s direct backup with room for pass-game involvement, which is a juicy enough projected role to land rather highly in my Handcuff RB Tiers.

Hopefully (for my best-ball-related bank balances), that’s still the case because Ford was unable to finish practice after suffering a hamstring injury yesterday.

Not all hamstring injuries are created equal; hopefully Ford’s is more of the three-week variety as opposed to anything that could keep him on the PUP list to start the season (he did give a thumbs-up after!).

Still, this injury could compel the Browns to add help through free agency, which accordingly would threaten the power balance of a No. 2 RB job that sure seemed to be Ford’s to lose only a few days ago.

🤔 The 49ers are working out RBs with Elijah Mitchell (adductor strain) banged up

This insertion is less about the actual parties who got the tryout – shout out to University of Miami all-time leading rusher Duke Johnson though! – and more so a potential sign that rising third-year talent Elijah Mitchell might be more banged up than initially thought.

Head coach Kyle Shanahan’s assertion that Mitchell would be sidelined for “at least probably a week” hardly helps set a timeline, and the often-injured back’s laundry list of issues since entering the league (and even in college) also doesn’t help matters.

This profiles as one of the more sneaky-relevant injury situations to monitor in fantasy football at the moment considering just how bonkers Christian McCaffrey went with Mitchell sidelined last season AND the potential for a cheap handcuff (Jordan Mason? Tyrion Davis-Price?) to emerge in this ever-efficient 49ers run game.

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The late-round QB strategy is dead. Or is it?

We’ve almost come full circle from JJ Zachariason’s iconic e-book and Rich Hribar preaching about the Konami Code. ADPs for the elite passers are back in the second round. Plus, mobile QBs are the top priority.

Now, JJ and Rich are like Thanos resting after the Snap. Their ideologies have reshaped the industry. And our options appear thinner than ever as we come out of the middle rounds. But, after a quick look back, Chris found a few worth targeting for the 2023 season.

📝 Quick Notes on Process

You already know what makes a good fantasy QB: lots of passing and touchdowns. Preferably, our signal-caller is responsible for both. And, using the last season of Best Ball Mania data as a proxy, the results re-emphasize what QB archetype(s) should be our target.

At first glance, you’ll see a few names and think it’s all about rushing. And you’re not wrong. But let’s dig a little deeper than these guys have some juice.

Justin Fields (15.8%) and Daniel Jones (9.8%) were top five in scramble rate last season. Meanwhile, Trevor Lawrence lit up the sky as the Jaguars were 12th in pass rate over expectation (PROE).

But, more importantly, Lawrence had the 11th-most rushing yards of any QB. He produced more than Lamar Jackson on unscripted carries (219 yards vs 206). So, with three of last year’s LRQBs falling into a similar bucket, we have a profile: scramblers.

There were 37 passers with ten or more scrambles, and they collectively averaged 0.21 EPA per attempt on the ground. Patrick Mahomes averaged 0.18 EPA per attempt through the air. Scrambles matter.

So, of course, let’s find the QBs in the late rounds with solid pass-catching corps or on an offense predicated on the pass. They’ll give us a viable floor.

But if we want to compete with the early-round slingers, we’ll need guys that will at least think about dashing downfield if the situation calls for it.

📈 Late-Round Targets

🎯 Geno Smith, Seattle (ADP: 115.4)

On the one hand, Geno Smith redefined his career in 2022. He led the league in CPOE during the regular season. And, based on ADPs, we love Seattle’s offense. They have four skill players in the Top 100. Only the Chiefs and Eagles are more popular.

On the other hand, folks may think last season was a fluke. Plus, we “know” how HC Pete Carroll likes to operate. A strong running game with a stout defense should be any team’s recipe for success. And Carroll does have a penchant for taking the controller away from his OC when the offense falters.

After the team went 9-7 in 2017, the Seahawks ranked 32nd and 30th in PROE and red-zone PROE. A similar trend happened after Russell Wilson’s injury-riddled 2020 season.

But we didn’t see Seattle’s season end on a depressing note in ’22. If anything, Smith not only operated the offense as designed but brought an element back to the Seahawks’ offense most hadn’t seen in some time.

Whether due to age or injury, Wilson couldn’t move like he did a half-decade ago. If routes weren’t open, his acrobatic skills couldn’t save him. But Geno’s unscripted runs kept Seattle in games. And they should be part of his appeal in fantasy for the upcoming season.

Seattle’s already told us with their wallet what parts of the offense they want to develop. They added the consensus WR1 and a pass-catching RB with early-round capital.

Nothing indicates we won’t see more of Geno throwing the ball in 2023. And with his tendency to scramble, he can slide into the top-10 discussion again this year.

🤓 The Fantasy Life staff’s (free!) fantasy football rankings continue to be updated. Dwain has D’Andre Swift how high?!

🤔 Many think their 2022 season was a fluke. Can they prove the doubters wrong in 2023?

🤼 Custom characters in a WWE video game to decide draft order. BRAVO, gentlemen.

🦁 The Lions signed a former Pro Bowl QB to back up Jared Goff. Are two gloves really necessary in a dome?

🏥 This starting Saints WR is expected to miss a few weeks with an injury. No, not that one.

😮 Best Randomizer guest … ever? Get those questions in now!

🏴‍☠️ Update on the Buccaneers’ ongoing QB battle. If you have two QBs, you have no QB.

🤗 Usage notes matter more than almost anything else we learn in August. Great news for this Chiefs WR. 

The only thing better than getting a workhorse RB in the early rounds? Getting one in the later rounds. Ian is here with thoughts on some of fantasy football’s cheapest potential workhorse RBs.

The ideal fantasy football RB has an elite combination of:

1. Talent. The RB is personally extremely good at football.

2. Workload. The offensive play-caller has no reservations about feeding his lead RB the ball like it’s 1993.

3. Offensive environment. A badass offensive line and great QB helps produce anyone’s idea of a top-tier scoring offense.

Of course, the few backs who possess high levels in each of these categories are few and far between; they aren’t going to be available after the first round or two in drafts of most shapes and sizes.

One such RB serves as a potentially mighty exception to this rule:

🐅 Bengals RB Joe Mixon

• Fantasy Life Volume Projections: 279.3 combined carries and targets (No. 10 among all RBs)

• ADP: RB15 (pick 43.1)

Talent is the potential issue here: Mixon carried bottom-eight marks in yards per carry (3.9), yard after contact per carry (2.63) and PFF's Elusive Rating (33.1).

Of course, PFF’s reigning 28th-ranked offensive line didn’t exactly help matters on the ground, and Mixon earned the company’s sixth-highest receiving grade among 47 qualified backs.

Go ahead and put a question mark in the talent box, but the 27-year-old veteran easily passes our final two tests. Only Austin Ekeler averaged more expected PPR points per game than Mixon last season, and that was with now-Broncos RB Samaje Perine taking all sorts of fantasy-friendly pass-down work.

1. Ekeler (20.4 expected PPR points per game)

2. Mixon (19)

3. Christian McCaffrey (18.6)

4. Saquon Barkley (17.9)

5. Josh Jacobs (17.4)

Mixon has worked as the RB6 in PPR points per game in each of the past two seasons; even continued declines in overall rushing efficiency probably won’t be enough to keep him out of the position’s top-12 options thanks to his status as the primary TD scorer inside of the league’s reigning seventh-ranked scoring offense.

So why is Mixon still regularly available in Round 4 of drafts?

Because of past concerns about the Bengals releasing him (Mixon took a pay cut) and the potential for the veteran to be suspended for off-the-field issues (next court date: August 14).

I won’t pretend to be a master of the U.S. Legal System or know exactly how NFL Commissioner Roger Goodell feels about the situation – but if they drag their feet even a little bit: Mixon shapes up as fantasy’s most-affordable workhorse back inside of a great offense.

The potential for a small suspension is arguably already baked into this price; it’d be surprising if anyone finds a way to rank Mixon outside fantasy’s top-12 backs in Week 1 and beyond.

Mixon is Fantasy Life’s only RB going outside of the top-40 picks projected to see 250-plus combined carries and targets (Najee Harris just barely missed the ADP cutoff), but there are a handful of additional RBs expected to see all sorts of volume.

The catch: Personal talent level or severe offensive environment concerns. Sometimes both. But beggars can’t be choosers, and the following seven RBs pop off the page when looking at their potential workload at cost.