👀 RBs can still THRIVE in bad offenses

Preseason football sounds pretty nice right about now…

In today’s Fantasy Life Newsletter presented by Masterworks:

Fantasy football is supposed to be a fun game that attempts to reward the best real-life players with point totals reflecting what they achieve on the field.

Of course, America’s favorite pastime isn’t perfect when it comes to its scoring always properly rewarding players for their actions.

Look no further than a broken-tackle-filled 12-yard run and a two-yard catch-and-fall reception both equaling 1.2 full-PPR points.

Volume cures all in fantasy football land, allowing players with multiple means of producing points (dual-threat QBs, receiving-friendly RBs) to sometimes outperform their real-life actions in our lovely little game.

This got me thinking: Are certain positions more capable than others when it comes to overcoming bad offensive environments?

Put simply: Yes. There have been more great fantasy RBs in bottom-10 scoring offenses than any other position over the past 10 years:

• Top-12 QB: 5% from bottom-10 scoring offenses

• Top-24 RB: 23%

• Top-24 WR: 17%

• Top-12 TE: 20%

Note that with no context, we would expect a 31.25% hit rate from a group of 10 offenses; it’s still not ideal to have any position inside of an especially bad offense, but RBs have been far more capable of overcoming their porous environment thanks to sweet, sweet volume.

Right? Let’s make sure. The following r-coefficients denote the correlation between each position’s expected PPR fantasy points and their offense’s scoring rank over the past two seasons. A high number means they are very correlated. A lower number indicates the two variables are probably “just friends”.

• QB: +0.475

• RB: +0.261

• WR: +0.391

• TE: +0.13

The expected, not even realized, fantasy points of RBs and TEs have been far less correlated to their teams overall offensive success than QBs and WRs. Again, both are still positively correlated – we ideally want all of our fantasy players to play in great offenses – but it’s been far less important for the more underpaid skill-position talents (funny how that works).

Fantasy Life’s (free!) Strength of Schedule tool shows the implied Vegas point totals for every offense in every game. Oddsmakers aren’t perfect, but they are often directionally correct and can help point us in the direction of good or bad offenses.

These are the bottom-10 projected scoring offenses ahead of 2023:

• Cardinals (16.7 points per game)

• Buccaneers (18.1)

• Texans (18.8)

• Rams (19.1)

• Colts (19.2)

• Titans (19.5)

• Commanders (19.6)

• Panthers (19.7)

• Patriots (20.3)

• Packers (20.3)

There are, unsurprisingly not many top-12 QBs or top-24 WRs coming from these offenses. In fact, only Anthony Richardson, Cooper Kupp, Christian Watson, DeAndre Hopkins and Terry McLaurin qualify. Still, I’m not exactly out on any of these players because of this study.

High-usage dual-threat QBs like Richardson simply don’t bust, and each WR is the rather undisputed top dog in their respective passing attack.

Our findings from RB and TE highlight two potentially exploitable ranges of fantasy drafts: Rounds 7 to 10 RBs (Rachaad White, James Conner, Antonio Gibson, A.J. Dillon, Brian Robinson) as well as dirt cheap LATE-round TEs (Trey McBride, Cade Otton, Jelani Woods, Logan Thomas, Hayden Hurst, Hunter Henry, Mike Gesicki, Luke Musgrove).

Obviously, not all of those players are going to hit, but it’s worth wondering if the steep discounts they carry compared to pricier early-round options at their respective positions are really worth it.

Long story short:

• It’s ideal to target fantasy options in good scoring offenses, but RBs and TEs have been much more adaptable to bad offensive environments than WRs and QBs.

Cool? Cool.

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But art? Really?

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Your fantasy roster shouldn’t be the only work of art that’s profitable.

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The Fantasy Life team started a mock draft last weekend to decide who keeps a job and who doesn’t have a fun time and conduct some solid offseason research. Chris Allen is here with some first-round takeaways, presented by Epic Seats…

I’ll be honest. I usually avoid doing mocks before showing up to my redraft league.

Best ball has taught me everything.

Based on trends from a top-heavy tournament allowing multiple entries, I’ve got a feel for who should be available in each round. So, I’ve walked into every home league draft with unwavering confidence.

Drafting against well-adjusted fans should be a walk in the park after battling against sickos who started building their portfolio in March.

At least, that’s what I tell myself until the picks start flying.

We spend so much time on best ball strategy that our redraft approach can get put on autopilot. To help, I got some of the Fantasy Life staff together for a mock.

Let’s look at the teams and their process with a few rounds complete.

✍️ League Notes

• League Size and Scoring: 12-team, PPR

• Site ADP: Sleeper

• Starting Roster: 1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE, 2 Flex, 1 K, 1 DEF

🥇 First Round

1.01 - Justin Jefferson (Marcas Grant)

Jefferson was one of five WRs in the top 10 for target share, air yard share, weighted opportunity, and routes per dropback. The Vikings ended last season sixth in pass rate over expected (PROE) and added a receiver with their only top-100 pick. No need to overthink this one.

1.02 - Ja’Marr Chase (Jake Trowbridge)

Before suffering a fractured hip, only Tyreek Hill had more targets than Chase. The explosive junior saw even more work out of the slot in his second season while still functioning as the WR1 on an offense with the fourth-highest Super Bowl odds. My Bengals bias aside, there isn’t a better option from the two spot than Chase.

1.03 - Christian McCaffrey (Kendall Valenzuela)

CMC’s 22.3% target share was greater than Tee Higgins’, and McCaffrey had more attempts inside the 10-yard line (20) than Ezekiel Elliot (19).

Get this: I pulled these numbers after his trade to San Francisco.

Few RBs have the same dual-threat workload as CMC; even fewer are on teams with as much firepower as the 49ers.

1.04 – Cooper Kupp (Rob Waziak)

You can find Kupp towards the top of the same lists as Chase and Jefferson before injuries derailed his and the Rams’ season. But we should expect more passing with a healthy Matthew Stafford and Sean McVay back to command the offense. Don’t be surprised if we see a lite-version of Kupp’s triple-crown performance this year without the team adding more competition.

1.05 – Travis Kelce (Jonathan Fuller)

Kelce is still the undisputed TE1. He had the third-best targets per first down rate (2.0) while still having a target share (24.9%) similar to D.K. Metcalf (25.6%) in 2022.

If Patrick Mahomes still trusts him, so should we.

1.06 – Austin Ekeler (Cooterdoodle)

Ekeler ran hot in ’22 with an 18.5% target share alongside the league’s 10th-highest share of his team’s carries from inside the 10-yard line.

Kellen Moore’s arrival should produce more vertical shots from the Chargers’ offense, but Ekeler still has the every-down role to justify taking him in the first round.

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💰 A star RB got a deal done. Fantasy Managers rejoice!

😃 The 2023 draft’s No. 32 overall pick ex-Steelers WR is off the PUP list. The first wealth is health.

😎 Bill Belichick added a former day-two WR to the fold. Comeback szn is in the air.

🐶 Jordan Addison provides a reason for driving 140 MPH. Let’s hear him out.

😬 Update in the Josh Jacobs saga. That doesn’t sound great!

😭 The Chiefs’ hopeful WR1 already suffered a setback at training camp. At least he *should* be okay by Week 1.

😢 Terrible news for the Bills’ ace returner and backup RB. Be careful around jet skis.

🏥 Will God turn off injuries already? At least this Lions safety is okay.

✈️ Aaron Rodgers seems to be enjoying his new home. Which one is older? 

🤠 America’s team has high expectations this season. Forecasting a deep playoff run?

The AFC East is slated to be one of the best divisions in all of football, thanks to many moving pieces in the offseason. Here, Matt McCuen will break down what all four teams did in the offseason and how he believes that will translate to the field and sportsbooks this season.

The New England Patriots had controlled the AFC East for a long time, winning the division from 2003-2019.

Since then, Josh Allen has flipped the script on that narrative as the Bills have been crowned champions for three consecutive years.

Miami will look to win their first divisional title since 2008 when they went 11-5.

The Jets, meanwhile, bring in a newly constructed roster headlined by future hall-of-fame quarterback Aaron Rodgers as they attempt to win for the first time since 2002 when Chad Pennington and Curtis Martin led them.

✈️ New York Jets

• +250 to win AFC East (BetMGM)

• Implied Wins: 9.5 -125 (BetMGM)

• Key Additions:

  • Aaron Rodgers (QB)

  • Allen Lazard (WR)

  • Mecole Hardman (WR)

• Key Departures:

  • Mike White (QB)

  • Elijah Moore (WR)

  • Braxton Berrios (WR)

New York enters this season with their highest expectations in over a decade. The main reason for that is the addition of future Hall of Fame signal-caller Aaron Rodgers, who was acquired via the Jets’ headline-stealing blockbuster trade in late April.

But the million-dollar question is, how good does this team become with the addition of Rodgers?

Well, if you look at last year, this move could make them one of the best teams in football. New York ranked fourth in scoring defense last year and continues to be led by multiple stars, including Rookie of the Year cornerback Sauce Gardner.

As great as the defense was for the Jets, the offense was sometimes tough to watch. The Jets ended the year ranked 29th in the NFL in points per game (17.4 PPG).

Pick: New York Jets to win the Division (+250, BetMGM)

I am extremely high on this Jets team entering the season. New York has a high-end defense, and now, with the addition of Rodgers and some other offensive weapons, can be one of the more balanced teams in the NFL.

The trade for Rodgers has been well noted, but I also love what the Jets did in the offseason at the WR position. They brought in Allen Lazard and Randall Cobb, who each have experience playing with Rodgers from their days in Green Bay.

I am also high on the addition of Mecole Hardman, who is one of the fastest players in the league and will fit into this offense well.

Lastly, we must remember second-year star Garrett Wilson, who should have great success paired with Rodgers.

I will take a chance and bet on the Jets to win their first division title since 2002.