🎯 The RB1 Available In The 6th Round

Call your grandma up today and let her know Justin Jefferson is now going ahead of Cooper Kupp in drafts...

In today’s Fantasy Life Newsletter:

The Ravens backfield is starting to come into focus after we got two interesting pieces of news yesterday:

1) J.K. Dobbins is being activated off the PUP list and is on track to play in the Ravens Week 1 regular season opener vs. the Jets.

2) Backup RB Gus Edwards, on the other hand, is a long shot to be ready for Week 1, per The Athletic's Jeff Zrebiec. 

We know the Ravens want to be a run-first team (they were dead last in the league in pass percentage in 2020 and 22nd in 2021) and every move they've made this season has confirmed this intention:

• Trading Marquise Brown to the Cardinals

• Signing RB Mike Davis in FA and drafting RB Tyler Badie

• Drafting 2 TEs (Isaiah Likely and Charlie Kolar)

Knowing this and the positive reports on Dobbins, I think he becomes a priority target before his price inevitably jumps up. 

For a stretch there, Dobbins was sliding late into the 6th round of Underdog drafts, but that was with drafters working under the assumption he wouldn't be ready for Week 1.

Similar to the optimism on Chris Godwin's return from ACL, look for Dobbins to creep back up draft boards over the next few days. I think he settles comfortably in the 4th round of drafts once the public catches up.

And with Edwards as his only true threat for touches (sorry Mr. Davis), the explosive Dobbins could be primed for a fast start and a massive season. Load up now. 

JJ Zachariason literally wrote the book on the Late Round QB strategy and now he shares all of his great fantasy work on LateRound.com, including his terrific Late Round Draft Guide. Today he shares with us his favorite high upside QB in 2022 drafts. Take it away, JJ...

We’re getting better at predicting which quarterbacks are going to be good in fantasy football. Back in 2015, when looking at average draft position versus post-season results, among the top-18 quarterbacks, there was zero correlation. None. Average draft position didn’t explain points per game output whatsoever.

The same thing happened in 2018, too. And there were years in between where that relationship was super weak.

That hasn’t been the case over the last couple of years, though. In 2020 and 2021, the higher-ranked quarterbacks in the preseason generally finished as higher-ranked quarterbacks once the season was over.

Now, to be clear, the difference between a top quarterback and the lowest-ranked starter in a 12-team league – the 12th-ranked quarterback – isn’t necessarily more significant today than it was 10 years ago. What is different is that we now have a better idea of who that top signal-caller might be, driving up prices for those elite quarterback assets.

Why is this happening? Why has the market gotten smarter?

Rushing.

Over the last three years in particular, we’ve seen a big jump in how top-12 fantasy football QBs are scoring points. In 2019, 19.4% of top-12 quarterback production in fantasy came via the ground. That number was almost 18% in 2020, and it was 16% in 2021.

From 2011 through 2018, the highest single-season mark within that statistic was 13.5%.

Mobility at quarterback has always been a cheat code in fantasy football, but with more QBs giving us this dual-threat ability, more fantasy managers are realizing just how important that rushing component can be.

And ground-game numbers are stickier than passing ones year over year. Think of it this way: If you were projecting passing numbers between Tom Brady and Jalen Hurts this season, you’d likely give Brady a pretty big edge. But there’d still be some chance that Hurts, with an improved situation, throws around the same number of touchdowns, right? If things break the right way, it’s at least possible.

You know what’s not possible? Brady posting better rushing numbers than Hurts.

Not gonna happen.

Since we know which quarterbacks are going to be runners and since we’re aware that mobility gives us a boost in fantasy scoring, then we generally have a good idea about which QBs are going to be good heading in 2022. In fantasy football, at least.

Does that mean you’ve got to spend up this year in order to get one of those dual-threat options? You don’t have to, no. Because there’s one late-ish round, quintessential high-upside quarterback who can provide you with everything you need in fantasy football.

His name is Trey Lance. And he’s got a chance to ball out. 

In his two starts last year, Lance averaged 12 rush attempts per game, showing off his escapability. He scored 14.6 and 19.1 standard fantasy points in those games, and he missed out on a rushing touchdown by about a centimeter.

Perhaps you’re worried about Lance’s development, and you don’t trust his arm talent. That’s valid – there’s plenty of ambiguity there. But Lance’s rushing is what’s going to provide him a floor each week in fantasy football, while the arm is where the ceiling comes into play. 

And we should probably feel OK about his potential passing numbers. The 49ers have an infrastructure that helped Jimmy Garoppolo finish second in the NFL in yards per attempt last year. The run game is solid, and the weapons are some of the best in the league.

If he doesn’t work out in 2022 as a passer, then you could still run into a season like we saw from Hurts last year. Yeah, Hurts had somewhat of an outlier season in the rushing touchdown department, but let’s not pretend his passing stats made him a strong QB1 option in fantasy. It was his rushing that made him relevant.

Lance may not break the NFL this year, but he could very easily break fantasy football.

Head to LateRound.com for more great work from JJ and grab his Draft Guide while you are there!

Use code Life to save 20% off your draft guide order!

🤔 OBJ's new team??? He hinted at his preferred landing spot on Instagram.

🧩 An interesting note about the Broncos backfield. Another piece to the puzzle and some more context here.

📈 You're too low on this TE. I agree his ADP is bizarre.

🍯 The buzz is building on this Chiefs RB. It has been relentless.

🏆 Which player will have the most regular season rushing touchdowns? I like Dalvin Cook at +1100 here. 

👐 Tee Higgins with the highlight of the day. He's just so smooth. 

🐶 Brandon Aiyuk loves rookie Danny Gray...for hilarious reasons.

🤓 Yea or nay on Kelce's new 'stache? He's ready for the next Super Troopers sequel.

Our Senior Analyst & Director of Social, Kendall Valenzuela, drops by to give us two of her favorite NFL bets on the board right now. Take it away, Kendall...

We are just a few days away from the start of the NFL season and now is the perfect time to place your futures bets. Today we will focus on quarterbacks and a few lines that could be beneficial to you and your wallet. All odds are courtesy of BetMGM:

💰 Kyler Murray over 524 Rush Yards (-115) & over 6.5 Rush TDs (-140)

If you do your homework on these bets (sorry, I had to) you can see that it’s asking for Arizona Cardinals QB Kyler Murray to have a big year. The only time Murray surpassed these numbers was in 2020 when he rushed for 819 yards and 11 touchdowns. Fantasy Life projects Murray to have 594 rushing yards this season and just 4.6 touchdowns.

The reason I am comfortable taking the over on both is partly based on Murray’s new contract. The Cardinals and Murray agreed on an extension in July that secured him through 2028 – paying him $230.5 million in new money, with $160 million guaranteed.

In the contract details, Murray has $7.5 million in incentive bonuses and one of those is tied to his rushing stats. From 2024-2028 he will get $750,000 if he rushes for 600 yards and six touchdowns. I know that incentives may not affect Murray this season, but I think the QB has enough to prove that he goes over his rushing and TD props starting this season. I expect the Cardinals to have another good year and am expecting them to correct their late-season woes and be more competitive down the stretch.

💰 Tom Brady over 4,549.5 Passing Yards (-115)

The best piece of advice is to never bet against Tom Brady.

The Buccaneers QB retired for 40 days during the offseason and in that time Tampa Bay’s future looked bleak. Whether by divine intervention or just a competitive itch he couldn’t scratch, Brady is back and no one should be counting him out.

Fantasy Life projects Brady to have 5,097 passing yards in 2022 – beyond enough to hit the over. In two seasons with the Buccaneers Brady has compiled 9,949 passing yards and led the league last season with 5,316 passing yards. 

Drafting safe ain't it. We need to be taking big swings to win our leagues. Today, Geoff shares two players he thinks are primed for breakouts...

🚀 Daniel Jones (QB22 on Underdog Fantasy)

It’s easy to get malaise with a player like Daniel Jones. The Giants have amassed just 14 wins since he arrived in 2019 and while there’s been some useful spike weeks, he’s yet to finish a season inside the top 20 of fantasy scorers at his position. Some of Jones’ issues are self-inflicted but the Giants skill players have been decimated by injuries during his tenure and there’s also the entire Joe Judge/Jason Garrett debacle. 

2022 will see Jones finally get a fair shake, though, as New York has chosen to go all out in supporting their 6th overall pick from 2019. New HC Brian Daboll is the man many credit with sparking Josh Allen’s career to new heights and New York has continued to add depth at both wide receiver (Wan’Dale Robinson) and on the O-Line. 

We also shouldn’t overlook that Jones, when given time, has been quite good. Since 2020, on passes thrown 25+ yards, Jones is first in EPA/att (expected points added) and continues to display underrated athleticism posting 26.3 yards per game as a rusher through 37 career starts. An improved offensive line, an easier schedule, and (the potential) for a full season of working with after-the-catch ballers Kadarius Toney and Saquon Barkly all work in Jones’ favor for a big 2022. He’s a player with great breakout potential in 2022 given the moves the Giants have made over the summer.

🚀 Rondale Moore (WR53 on Underdog Fantasy)

The lack of hype around Rondale Moore this year is surprising. Moore was drafted as an undersized speedster (4.29 40-time) but still managed 54 catches on 64 targets as a rookie, good for an 84.4% catch rate which was the highest of any WR in 2021. The fact he ended the season as one of the Cardinals' most reliable targets is more than enough to peak our interest given Arizona’s current depth chart and the versatility he displayed in college. 

We know DeAndre Hopkins will miss the first six games and even Marquise Brown’s status – both with the team and league – has become murky. However, it's Christian Kirk’s departure (and the 103 targets he left behind) that should have us extremely interested in Moore for 2022. The Cardinals used both Kirk and Moore almost identically in 2021, having each player line up in the slot on well over 70% of their snaps. The Cardinals have already proven to us that they value Moore’s athleticism (18 carries as a rookie) and if coach speak means anything, Moore is about to see a massive bump in target share and snap count in 2022:

The unknown with Moore is likely keeping his ADP somewhat suppressed. However, his profile as a plus athlete and what can only be described as an A+ depth chart in Arizona for 2022 makes him one of the most intriguing breakout candidates for me at WR in the upcoming season.