RB Rooms Up In The Air

Get Expert Insights On The NFL Draft! 🔥

The Fantasy Life NFL Draft Guide is a living, breathing draft hub with live updates as we head into the NFL Draft. Inside you'll find Matthew Freedman's Big Board, expert NFL mock drafts across the Fantasy Life team, Dwain McFarland's Rookie Super Model and non-stop insights to get you ready for the NFL Draft.

Love Is In The Air In 2026

Around these parts, it's never too early to start prepping for the fantasy football season, especially when you have the opportunity to get a leg up on your leaguemates. To help with exactly that, Kendall Valenzuela, Dwain McFarland and Ian Hartitz all offered up their favorite QB sleeper for early 2026 fantasy football drafts.

RELATED: 2026 Fantasy Football Rankings

Jordan Love | Green Bay Packers

Kendall: Jordan Love is going to be the quarterback I wait for in drafts in 2026. It doesn't look like we're going to get a Jayden Daniels or Drake Maye type of late-round quarterback that we're pounding the table for, but Love might be the closest guy for me. In 15 regular-season starts in 2025, Love completed 66.3% of his passes for 3,381 yards, 23 touchdown passes and six interceptions. He finished as the QB16 in overall fantasy points last year, averaging 16.5 fantasy points per game.

The idea of Love being my sleeper quarterback hinges upon the team getting a little more away from the ground game and focusing on Love's arm and the receivers around him. He attempted only 439 passes in 2025, the seventh-fewest in the NFL. Romeo Doubs (who led all of the Packers’ wide receivers in total snaps in 2025) is out of the picture, and a lot will be asked of Tucker Kraft, Christian Watson and Matthew Golden this season. The Packers are still going to run the ball and rotate their receivers, but Love could be the quarterback who drastically outperforms his ADP in 2026 if they give him more of a runway.

Don’t Bet On Ty Simpson Going In Round 1

Freedman loves doing NFL mock drafts. He likes creating NFL Draft big boards. He enjoyed helping to put together our 2026 NFL Draft Guide.

But let's be honest: That stuff is all foreplay.

If you really want to get down and dirty—we’re talking about the true degenerate stuff that would make your neighbors scared to see you outside the house while they take their post-dinner constitutional stroll around the block—then you gotta get involved in the NFL Draft betting market.

Some sportsbooks have already released markets for the draft, and there are a few that stand out to me.

Let's dig in, using some data from NFL Mock Draft Database, Grinding the Mocks, his top 200 prospect big board, most recent mock draft and my personal index of recent sharp mocks.

Under 1.5 Quarterbacks Drafted in Round 1

• Sportsbook: DraftKings

• Odds: +170

• Implied Probability: 37.0%.

This bet essentially comes down to whether QB Ty Simpson (Alabama) goes in Round 1.

ESPN's Dan Orlovosky believes that Simpson is the No. 1 QB in the class. Per Orlovsky, there's a meaningful number of NFL decision makers who agree with him.

But I'm not buying it.

Let's set aside that Simpson and Orlovsky have the same agent. I take Orlovsky at his word. 

But Simpson is No. 35 in the NFL Mock Draft Database consensus big board and No. 38 on my big board. He's No. 27 at Grinding the Mocks, and 52% of recent sharp mocks have him, but he's not in Round 1 of my recent mock.

Big picture: All this data suggests that he's a borderline guy for Round 1.

I think No. 16 to the Jets is the earliest he can go—but the Jets are clearly not building for this year. As I note in my recent QB situations breakdown, the Jets are playing for 2027.

Framed differently: If the Jets liked Simpson well enough to take him at No. 16, then they just would take him at No. 2. And they probably wouldn't have traded for veteran Geno Smith.

Similarly, if the Cardinals liked Simpson well enough to trade back into Round 1 to take him (they have No. 34 near the top of Round 2), then they simply would take him at No. 3—and they wouldn't have signed veteran Gardner Minshew.

The Browns won't take him at No. 6. That's simply too high—and this specific front office has already invested too much in the QB position to be able to get away with that pick. And the Brown won't take him at No. 24 … because if they invest a first-rounder in him and he fails, then the entire front office could get fired.

The Dolphins won't take him at Nos. 11 and 30. They just signed Malik Willis.

The Rams won't take him at No. 13. They're trying to maximize their odds of winning the Super Bowl this year, and investing a first-rounder in a backup is a poor way of going all-in.

The Steelers might consider Simpson at No. 21 … but I expect veteran Aaron Rodgers to re-sign with the team eventually, and does the team (and HC Mike McCarthy) really want to put a rookie behind Rodgers for his final season? I'm skeptical.

But the top of Round 2? Yes, that's the spot where I could see the Jets taking him at No. 33, Cardinals at No. 34 and Browns at No. 39.

To me, Simpson looks like a classic Round 2 QB. There are legitimate reasons to like him. He was a five-star recruit entering college, and in his final season—his first as a starter—he was a good passer (3,567 yards, 28 TDs, five INTs on a 64.5% completion rate).

But he has significant issues as a prospect. He's not big (6-1, 211 pounds). He had just 15 starts in college. He did little as a runner this past season (93 yards). And his play fell off in the second half of 2025 (6.5 AY/A in Games 8-15 vs. 10.3 in Games 1-7).

He might go in Round 1 … but he shouldn't.

Either way, I think it's maybe a 50/50 prop—but the market's pricing under 1.5 QBs in Round 1 as if it has only a 37.0% chance of happening. I like those odds.

Around The Watercooler

The latest fantasy and NFL gossip, news, memes and more from our merry band of football nerds …

🦅 Are you buying, selling or holding A.J. Brown? The choice is clear.

👀 Free agency provided some low-key upside for a trio of dynasty buy-lows.

📲 Be the first to know. Sign up for Fantasy Life SMS to receive insights before anyone else.

🤬 We all have one. Who’s the most frustrating player you’ve rostered?

💪 We may have just witnessed the most impressive Pro Day of 2026.