🙏 The QB Trade That Needs To Happen

I love football on TV, hanging with my friends, and ADP twins...

In today’s Fantasy Life Newsletter:

The Jimmy Garoppolo rumors are flying fast and furious these days.

First, we had rumors about a trade between the Niners and Bucs. But yesterday Jimmy G's agent, Don Yee, told Tom Pelissero that there had been no talks between the two teams. 

Then ESPN's Jeremy Fowler reported that the Seahawks "have discussed the possibility" of bringing Garoppolo into the fold. 

The Seahawks are by far the most logical fit for Jimmy G at this point. Similar to the boost CMC and DJ Moore received with the Baker Mayfield trade, Tyler Lockett and DK Metcalf would both become much more interesting without the prospect of catching balls from either Drew Lock or Geno Smith.

There are still lots of moving parts here with Garoppolo recovering from shoulder surgery and salary cap considerations, but all indications point to Jimmy G being done in San Francisco.

The biggest news yesterday, however, was our very own Matthew Berry announcing that he will be leaving ESPN after an epic 15 year run with the company: 

Matthew has been the leading driver in growing the game of fantasy football over that span and has paved the way for countless people, myself included, to make a living in this industry.

Cheers to Matthew and thanks for everything. We'll pass along more details about his next move when we can. 

🍔 The Steelers renamed their stadium what??? Miss you already Ketchup Field.

🔎 An insider on Gronk's potential return. One of his old teammates weighs in. 

🐦 AJ Brown is good at tweeting. Exhibit A (shot) and Exhibit B (chaser).

📉 ADP risers and fallers on Underdog this past week. We have a flippening with the Chiefs WRs. 

🐎 The new-look Broncos offense. Things are going to be different with Russell Wilson.

In fantasy drafts we are forced to make tough choices. In this series, our contributors will help you brake ties on these ADP Twins. Today, Kevin looks at a pair of WRs going in the mid-rounds.

One of these players has been a fantasy stalwart for multiple years. The other player has been a solid contributor to his team but now likely gets a shot at primetime for one of the NFC’s top contenders. Both WRs are going in the same pocket of drafts, but you can make a case for drafting one over the other.

Let’s take a look (ADP courtesy of Underdog Fantasy):

• Allen Lazard - WR40 (ADP 82.3)

• Tyler Lockett - WR47 (ADP 97.6)

💭 The Rationale

We’re looking at these two players as ships passing in the sea in terms of ADP. Lazard has been drafted higher and higher through the spring and summer, while Lockett’s stock has fallen. What changed?

The dumpster fire of a QB situation for the Seahawks doesn’t help matters (sorry, Kendall!) in projecting anything rosy for Lockett’s 2022 prospects. However, we can find solace in the fact that Lockett was the preferred target for Geno Smith in the four games he played with a 34% target share, but the variance in touchdowns went to the D.K. Metcalf side with five. 

What if the Seahawks’ QB is Drew Lock? Well, per Sharp Football Stats, Lockett’s deep receiving yards easily topped the league in 2021 and combining that with Lock’s penchant for YOLO deep balls, that could be a sneaky match made in heaven this season.

For Lazard, the Packers’ offense lost their top target earner and new next-door neighbor to Derek Carr in Davante Adams, so somebody will need to step up in this offense. The public sentiment seems to sway in Lazard’s direction based on the rising ADP, but any number of Packers could lead this team in targets and fantasy points. Lazard is a bad bet to make on the offense and is the priciest fantasy option of the Packers’ WR/TE group.

Lazard has THREE total games with eight or more targets in his entire career (since 2019), so expecting him to suddenly earn targets because the previous top option is now on another team seems foolish. If Lazard isn’t catching touchdowns from Aaron Rodgers (33.6% of his total fantasy output in 2021 came via the touchdown), can we reasonably expect consistent fantasy output catching passes when he’s never done it before?

The choice is pretty clear in my eyes and I’d rather have the player who has produced multiple top-24 seasons and doesn’t even have to put up a Top-24 season in 2022 to crush his ADP. Lockett seems mispriced at his current draft cost relative to the range of WR going around him, like Skyy Moore, Chris Olave, and Robert Woods.

Winner - Tyler Lockett

In this series, our contributors will disclose their favorite players and tell us why they can't stop drafting them. Today, we have Linda disclosing her love for Keenan Allen…

My Guy: Keenan Allen

Underdog Fantasy ADP: 27.7 (WR12)

Why:  If you look up the definition of “consistency” in the dictionary you’ll find a picture of Keenan Allen. Since 2017 Allen has garnered at least 100 targets each season and has finished top-10 in receptions four of those five years. He has finished no worse than WR13 in that same stretch.

In 2021, the 5x Pro-Bowler saw 27 red zone targets which was good for fourth most in the NFL. He finished the season with the second most routes run. The 3rd Down King was first in targets on 3rd down and 7+ yards and fourth in 3rd down targets that went for first downs with 25.

Despite all of this, his current ADP still feels undervalued. Fantasy football drafters near and far will point to Allen’s age and claim he’s sure to fall off a cliff. I could maybe get behind this narrative had the Chargers added a single pass-catching option in the 2022 NFL draft. Los Angeles did bring in former Seahawks and Rams TE Gerald Everett who has never amassed more than 50 receptions in a season. The Chargers also took care of WR Mike Williams with a hefty contract extension early in the off-season. 

In 2021, the Chargers were second in total pass attempts and fifth in total points scored.  Heading into OC Joe Lombardi’s second year, Allen expects the offense to continue to grow. With QB Justin Herbert at the helm, the Chargers should remain a high passing offense with room for Allen, Williams, and RB Austin Ekeler to sit at the table and eat.

Disclosure: My home fantasy league exiled Keenan Allen after his 2016 season, declaring him injury prone and refusing to draft him. He became an instant grab for me at value prices and I never turned back.

The season is fast approaching, which means it is time for us to get to know all of these NFL teams and who we should be drafting and fading after a busy offseason. In today's team preview, Pete previews the Detroit Lions. 

The Lions might be the sneakiest team in the league for fantasy production in 2022. Outside of D’Andre Swift, who is a mainstay in the second round of drafts, all of the other offensive pieces come at reasonable prices.

Casual NFL fans won’t give Detroit much attention–they have the league’s 4th worst Super Bowl odds at +12500 on BetMGM and a win total set at a paltry 6.5 games–but last year Dan Campbell showed a willingness to air it out in garbage time and now the weapons are even better. 

Thanks to a couple of intriguing additions to the WR room, I think the Lions are set to surprise on the fantasy-front, even if they are still a ways off from contending.

⚙️ Offseason changes

• Signed WR DJ Chark and TE Garrett Griffin in free agency

• Lost WR KhaDarel Hodge to the Falcons

• Drafted WR Jameson Williams 12th overall in the NFL draft, as well as TE James Mitchell in the fifth round

✨Team Vibes

When Jared Goff is your quarterback, the vibes are always going to be sus. Goff finished last year 29th among QBs in PFF’s passing grade metric and 33rd in yards per attempt. 

That said, there is lots of reason for optimism this year. The additions of Chark and Williams give Goff two more legitimate pass-catching threats. Williams is still recovering from a torn ACL, but many draftniks believe he is the biggest talent of this WR class. Chark has also struggled with injuries, but flashed big playmaking ability in 2019 when he cleared 1,000 receiving yards and 8 TDs.

Chark and Williams join Swift, WR Amon-Ra St. Brown, and TE T.J Hockenson to form a low-key great skill position group. St. Brown finished as the PPR WR21 last year thanks to a blazing hot finish from Weeks 13-18 where he had 8+ receptions in every game and racked up 5 TDs.

Hockenson has yet to fully break out, but he’s been very efficient throughout his career despite dealing with plenty of double teams as the focal point of the passing game.

Swift remains one of the most exciting RB selections in drafts thanks to his elite pass-catching ability (4.8 per game in 2021). Even though Jamaal Williams is still hanging around, Swift dominated snaps and targets in the backfield in 2021. The combination of his pass-catching floor and big play ability make him a priority target. 

My list of Lions draft targets looks like a CVS receipt...

🎯Draft targets

• RB D’Andre Swift (Underdog ADP 15.1, RB8)

• WR Amon-Ra St. Brown (Underdog ADP 62.2, WR29)

• TE T.J. Hockenson (Underdog ADP 86.5, TE7)

• WR Jameson Williams (Underdog ADP 132.3, WR61)

• WR D.J. Chark (Underdog ADP 152.7, WR69)

• QB Jared Goff (Underdog ADP 186.7, QB25)

👋Draft fades

• RB Jamaal Williams (Underdog ADP 178.6, RB56)