đ A QB With Top 5 Upside Returns
Make sure he's not on waivers...
I think Arthur Smith would âexcelâ away from the ball, tooâŚ
In today's Fantasy Life Newsletter presented by Underdog Fantasy:
The Cardinals are getting help
QUICK HITTER: MORE Best Ball?!
Texans Outlook: CJ Stroud gonna keep on rolling
Arthur Smith continues to troll us all
Buy, Sell, Hold: Buy low on Taylor Swiftâs boyfriend
Itâs 11/7. Take it away, Peter OverzetâŚ
The 1-8 Arizona Cardinals have the inside track for the No. 1 overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft, but they have reinforcements coming soon.
2023 might be a lost season on the playoff front, but they are about to get much more interesting for fantasy purposesâŚ
đ QB Kyler Murray is on track to start in Week 10
The Cardinals sent Joshua Dobbs and his bag of heroics to Minnesota and then subjected us to one brutal Clayton Tune week, but their franchise QB, Kyler Murray, is finally set to return in Week 10 vs. the Falcons.
Murray hasnât started a game since tearing his ACL in Week 14 of last season, but immediately enters the QB1 conversation in an unimposing matchup vs. the Fightinâ Arthur Smiths:
Itâs important not to forget how good of a fantasy player Kyler Murray has been over his career:
In our early set of Week 10 ranks, Matthew Freedman and Ian Hartitz have Murray ranked as a fringe QB1, which sounds exactly right to me.
The Falcons have given up four straight weeks of Top 10 QB performances, so thereâs no reason to think Kyler canât hit the ground running here.
BONUS: For more on how Kylerâs return impacts Marquise Brown, check out the Utilization Report.
đ RB James Conner is close to returning
The good news for Arizona doesnât end there, though:
In addition to preparing Kyler Murray to play Sunday vs. Atlanta, the Cardinals also are hoping to open the practice window for RB James Conner, who has been on injured reserve the past four games recovering from his knee injury. So two key Cardinals both are on their way back.
— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter)
Nov 7, 2023
The Cardinals RB room has been an absolute mess with James Conner on IR, so his return will give a huge boost to the running game. Before injuring his knee in Week 5, Conner was dominating the touches in the backfield:
Connerâs Week 10 status seems slightly more up in the air than Kylerâs, so keep close tabs on his practice reports this week. Heâll be a solid RB2 if he does go.
We know the Cardinals wonât be in the playoffs, but what about the Bills, who are currently on the bubble right now? How about the Vikings?
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The Texans exploded in Week 9, but what can we expect going forward?? Today Ian forecasts Houstonâs outlook for the rest of the seasonâŚ
What a wild 2023 itâs been for C.J. Stroud.
Seriously: The now 22-year-old QB has been dealing with a LOT ever since the ball dropped to start the new year.
December 31-January 1: Stroud plays the game of his life and nearly leads Ohio State to a victory over Georgia, but the clock struck midnight (literally) as a last-second missed field goal spoiled the Buckeyesâ upset bid.
April 21: Draft Twitter goes wild when leaked âS2 Cognitionâ test scores allegedly place Stroud in just the 18th percentile, although the low score would later be disputed.
April 27: The Texans select Stroud with the No. 2 overall pick despite late speculation that they could go for Will Levis.
September 10: Stroud makes his first NFL start in a 25-9 loss to the Ravens, but did ultimately manage to pass for 242 yards â the second-highest mark against this elite unit all season.
November 5: Stroud throws for a single-game rookie record 470 TDs to go along with five (!) TDs â the last of which came with just six seconds remaining to win the damn game.
Through eight weeks of action Stroud has tossed 14 TDs against just one interception (that the Texans hilariously immediately got back anyway when the defender fumbled). His 17-game pace in passing yards (4,825) would beat Andrew Luckâs NFL-record 4,374 before the final week of the season.
And guess what? Stroud has looked good doing it along the way, tossing one tight-window dime after another all season long.
66 seconds of b-e-a-utiful C.J. Stroud throws
— Ian Hartitz (@Ihartitz)
Nov 7, 2023
Only comparing Stroud against fellow 2023 draft-class QBs is doing the young man a disservice at this point â the Texansâ franchise signal-caller is playing like a legit top-10 QB regardless of experience.
EPA per dropback:Â +0.15 (No. 7 among 35 QBs with 100-plus dropbacks)
PFF pass grade: 75.4 (No. 12)
Passer rating:Â 102.9 (No. 4)
Yards per attempt:Â 8.1 (No. 3)
Critics could point to more middling marks in completion percentage over expected (-0.2%, No. 21) and adjusted completion rate (75%, No. 20), but then again the man does deserve a bit of slack when it comes to advanced accuracy metrics considering Stroud is one of only three QBs with an average target depth north of nine yards on the season.
Real-life optics aside, Stroudâs average of 19.6 fantasy points per game trails only Josh Allen (23.4) and Jalen Hurts (22.8) on the season. Heâs easily emerged as the best pre-draft value at the position when looking at the difference between preseason ADP vs. current rank in fantasy points per game:
Stroud (+27: QB30 ADP, QB3 in fantasy points per game)
Baker Mayfield (+14: QB32, QB18)
Sam Howell (+12: QB23, QB11)
Brock Purdy (+8: QB22, QB14)
Kirk Cousins (+7: QB14, QB7)
Stroud is putting forward one of the best rookie seasons the position has ever seen in both real life and in fantasy land while truly looking the part of the next big thing at the position through nine weeks of 2023 ⌠but can he keep it up?
My belief: Yes. And here are the three main reasons whyâŚ
đĽŠÂ Another coach is beefing with fantasy players. Smh.
đ An update on Justin Jeffersonâs return. Stay patient.
đ Are these formerly elite RBs back in the RB1 conversation? It sure looks like it.
đ¤ŽÂ Want to see some stats that will make you vomit? Sorry Bijan managers.
đ Speaking of Bijan, Arthur Smith is a parody of himself. Bijan is âexcelling away from the ballâ lol.
đ Need a late-season gem to aid your playoff hopes? Their stocks are pointing up.
đŞÂ Antonio Pierce is changing the culture in Las Vegas. Very cool clip.
đ Sneaky MVP candidates. Whereâs Lamar??
đ¤ĽÂ Sean Payton says it is Marvin Mims time. Can you trust him, though?
đď¸Â Aaron Rodgers says heâll be back when?? Alrighty then.
âď¸Â The Rams sign a familiar name at QB. Should have been the Jets.
Week 9 is in the books! Cooterdoodle is back to walk us through the fantasy landscape from a buy, sell, hold perspectiveâŚ
đBUY
đ Travis Kelce, TE - Chiefs
Travis Kelceâs target share dipped to a season-low of 12% in Week 9. He hasnât seen any end zone targets since Week 5. And Kecle will have to sit on benches in Week 10 due to KCâs Bye.
Itâs feeling a bit âbleakâ, right?Â
But if we look at Kelceâs production from last week, do we really think that he continues to produce his lowest-scoring games since 2018?
Yesterday's 4.4 PPR points was the lowest scoring game for Travis Kelce since Week One of 2018 - over five years ago
— Andrew Cooper (@CoopAFiasco)
Nov 6, 2023
Whatâs more likely? A. Travis Kelce continues to perform at his worst. B. Mahomes finds ways to feed his comfort TE in the end zone again.Â
Iâm going with option B, as itâs the more likely outcome. Not to mention the Chiefs face PHI in Week 11. And like Matthew Berry has said, âStart your TEs against the Eagles.â
Takeaway: Have faith in Kecleâs talent. Buy low.
đ SELL
đ Rachaad White, TB - Buccaneers
This is a Conditional Sell.Â
Rachaad White has been very productive on your roster, especially in a season when RBs are tough to come by.Â
However, Tampa has some tougher matchups on the horizon that might hinder Whiteâs production. And given that his two TDs against the Texans in Week 9 account for 66.66% of his scores through nine weeks, itâs possible that weâve seen Whiteâs biggest scoring day.
So like I said, âConditional Sellâ. The conditions are as follows:Â
If you are in a standard-scoring league, where Whiteâs 3-7 receptions per game arenât benefiting you: sell.Â
If you are weak at any position and can capitalize on his monster game: sell.Â
And lastly, if by some chance you have other RBs that are just as productive and you donât need White on your squad: sell high.
Takeaway: Odds are we wonât see multiple TDs again. If you can sell high on White, I would.
đ HOLD
đ¤ Tank Dell, WR - Texans
While it might seem like a great time to sell Tank Dell after his six receptions for 114 yards and 2 TDS, the Texans have several matchups that are just as WR-friendly as the Buccaneers coming up in the Cardinals, Jaguars, and Titans.
We could easily see more big games from Dell in the future. However, it is worth noting the inconsistencies in Dellâs production this season:Â
Tank Dell hit a season high 28.9% target share today. He's now scored fewer than 9 PPR points in four games this year and more than 20 PPR points in three games. Nothing in between.
— JJ Zachariason (@LateRoundQB)
Nov 6, 2023
But C.J. Stroud and Dell seem to be finding their stride.Â
Given the fact that you didnât have to spend to get him on your team (you may have even snagged him in waivers this morning), Dell is likely to put up double-digit league-winning numbers a few more times this year.
And because of that, Iâm not willing to get rid of him.
Takeaway: Iâll take a little volatility on my roster if I can continue to get big games in juicy matchups.
THIS MAN SHOTGUNNED A FULLY LOADED CHICKEN NOODLE SOUP
as a fantasy football punishment. respect.
— cooterdoodle (@cooterdoodle)
Nov 6, 2023