🙏 A QB With Top 5 Upside Returns

I think Arthur Smith would “excel” away from the ball, too…

In today's Fantasy Life Newsletter presented by Underdog Fantasy:

The 1-8 Arizona Cardinals have the inside track for the No. 1 overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft, but they have reinforcements coming soon.

2023 might be a lost season on the playoff front, but they are about to get much more interesting for fantasy purposes…

🙏 QB Kyler Murray is on track to start in Week 10

The Cardinals sent Joshua Dobbs and his bag of heroics to Minnesota and then subjected us to one brutal Clayton Tune week, but their franchise QB, Kyler Murray, is finally set to return in Week 10 vs. the Falcons.

Murray hasn’t started a game since tearing his ACL in Week 14 of last season, but immediately enters the QB1 conversation in an unimposing matchup vs. the Fightin’ Arthur Smiths:

It’s important not to forget how good of a fantasy player Kyler Murray has been over his career:

He’s one of five active QBs with a career points per game over 20 points.

In our early set of Week 10 ranks, Matthew Freedman and Ian Hartitz have Murray ranked as a fringe QB1, which sounds exactly right to me.

The Falcons have given up four straight weeks of Top 10 QB performances, so there’s no reason to think Kyler can’t hit the ground running here.

BONUS: For more on how Kyler’s return impacts Marquise Brown, check out the Utilization Report.

🙏 RB James Conner is close to returning

The good news for Arizona doesn’t end there, though:

The Cardinals RB room has been an absolute mess with James Conner on IR, so his return will give a huge boost to the running game. Before injuring his knee in Week 5, Conner was dominating the touches in the backfield:

Conner’s Week 10 status seems slightly more up in the air than Kyler’s, so keep close tabs on his practice reports this week. He’ll be a solid RB2 if he does go.

We know the Cardinals won’t be in the playoffs, but what about the Bills, who are currently on the bubble right now? How about the Vikings?

You can put your playoff forecasting and drafting skills to the test with Underdog Fantasy’s new playoff best ball contest:

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The Texans exploded in Week 9, but what can we expect going forward?? Today Ian forecasts Houston’s outlook for the rest of the season…

What a wild 2023 it’s been for C.J. Stroud.

Seriously: The now 22-year-old QB has been dealing with a LOT ever since the ball dropped to start the new year.

• December 31-January 1: Stroud plays the game of his life and nearly leads Ohio State to a victory over Georgia, but the clock struck midnight (literally) as a last-second missed field goal spoiled the Buckeyes’ upset bid.

• April 21: Draft Twitter goes wild when leaked “S2 Cognition” test scores allegedly place Stroud in just the 18th percentile, although the low score would later be disputed.

• April 27: The Texans select Stroud with the No. 2 overall pick despite late speculation that they could go for Will Levis.

• September 10: Stroud makes his first NFL start in a 25-9 loss to the Ravens, but did ultimately manage to pass for 242 yards – the second-highest mark against this elite unit all season.

• November 5: Stroud throws for a single-game rookie record 470 TDs to go along with five (!) TDs – the last of which came with just six seconds remaining to win the damn game.

Through eight weeks of action Stroud has tossed 14 TDs against just one interception (that the Texans hilariously immediately got back anyway when the defender fumbled). His 17-game pace in passing yards (4,825) would beat Andrew Luck’s NFL-record 4,374 before the final week of the season.

And guess what? Stroud has looked good doing it along the way, tossing one tight-window dime after another all season long.

Only comparing Stroud against fellow 2023 draft-class QBs is doing the young man a disservice at this point – the Texans’ franchise signal-caller is playing like a legit top-10 QB regardless of experience.

• EPA per dropback: +0.15 (No. 7 among 35 QBs with 100-plus dropbacks)

• PFF pass grade: 75.4 (No. 12)

• Passer rating: 102.9 (No. 4)

• Yards per attempt: 8.1 (No. 3)

Critics could point to more middling marks in completion percentage over expected (-0.2%, No. 21) and adjusted completion rate (75%, No. 20), but then again the man does deserve a bit of slack when it comes to advanced accuracy metrics considering Stroud is one of only three QBs with an average target depth north of nine yards on the season.

Real-life optics aside, Stroud’s average of 19.6 fantasy points per game trails only Josh Allen (23.4) and Jalen Hurts (22.8) on the season. He’s easily emerged as the best pre-draft value at the position when looking at the difference between preseason ADP vs. current rank in fantasy points per game:

1. Stroud (+27: QB30 ADP, QB3 in fantasy points per game)

2. Baker Mayfield (+14: QB32, QB18)

3. Sam Howell (+12: QB23, QB11)

4. Brock Purdy (+8: QB22, QB14)

5. Kirk Cousins (+7: QB14, QB7)

Stroud is putting forward one of the best rookie seasons the position has ever seen in both real life and in fantasy land while truly looking the part of the next big thing at the position through nine weeks of 2023 … but can he keep it up?

My belief: Yes. And here are the three main reasons why…

🥩 Another coach is beefing with fantasy players. Smh.

🙏 An update on Justin Jefferson’s return. Stay patient.

🚀 Are these formerly elite RBs back in the RB1 conversation? It sure looks like it.

🤮 Want to see some stats that will make you vomit? Sorry Bijan managers.

😂 Speaking of Bijan, Arthur Smith is a parody of himself. Bijan is “excelling away from the ball” lol.

📈 Need a late-season gem to aid your playoff hopes? Their stocks are pointing up.

💪 Antonio Pierce is changing the culture in Las Vegas. Very cool clip.

👀 Sneaky MVP candidates. Where’s Lamar??

🤥 Sean Payton says it is Marvin Mims time. Can you trust him, though?

🚑️ Aaron Rodgers says he’ll be back when?? Alrighty then.

✍️ The Rams sign a familiar name at QB. Should have been the Jets.

Week 9 is in the books! Cooterdoodle is back to walk us through the fantasy landscape from a buy, sell, hold perspective…

🛒BUY

📈 Travis Kelce, TE - Chiefs

Travis Kelce’s target share dipped to a season-low of 12% in Week 9. He hasn’t seen any end zone targets since Week 5. And Kecle will have to sit on benches in Week 10 due to KC’s Bye.

It’s feeling a bit ‘bleak’, right? 

But if we look at Kelce’s production from last week, do we really think that he continues to produce his lowest-scoring games since 2018?

What’s more likely? A. Travis Kelce continues to perform at his worst. B. Mahomes finds ways to feed his comfort TE in the end zone again. 

I’m going with option B, as it’s the more likely outcome. Not to mention the Chiefs face PHI in Week 11. And like Matthew Berry has said, “Start your TEs against the Eagles.”

Takeaway: Have faith in Kecle’s talent. Buy low.

🛒 SELL

📉 Rachaad White, TB - Buccaneers

This is a Conditional Sell. 

Rachaad White has been very productive on your roster, especially in a season when RBs are tough to come by. 

However, Tampa has some tougher matchups on the horizon that might hinder White’s production. And given that his two TDs against the Texans in Week 9 account for 66.66% of his scores through nine weeks, it’s possible that we’ve seen White’s biggest scoring day.

So like I said, ‘Conditional Sell’. The conditions are as follows: 

• If you are in a standard-scoring league, where White’s 3-7 receptions per game aren’t benefiting you: sell. 

• If you are weak at any position and can capitalize on his monster game: sell. 

• And lastly, if by some chance you have other RBs that are just as productive and you don’t need White on your squad: sell high.

Takeaway: Odds are we won’t see multiple TDs again. If you can sell high on White, I would.

🛒 HOLD

🤝 Tank Dell, WR - Texans

While it might seem like a great time to sell Tank Dell after his six receptions for 114 yards and 2 TDS, the Texans have several matchups that are just as WR-friendly as the Buccaneers coming up in the Cardinals, Jaguars, and Titans.

We could easily see more big games from Dell in the future. However, it is worth noting the inconsistencies in Dell’s production this season: 

But C.J. Stroud and Dell seem to be finding their stride. 

Given the fact that you didn’t have to spend to get him on your team (you may have even snagged him in waivers this morning), Dell is likely to put up double-digit league-winning numbers a few more times this year.

And because of that, I’m not willing to get rid of him.

Takeaway: I’ll take a little volatility on my roster if I can continue to get big games in juicy matchups.