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- Predicting Monday's Headlines
Part of success in the fantasy long game has as much to do with forgetting information as remembering it. Count that double coming off Week 1—when a single data point accounts for one hundred percent of the sample, it is almost assured to mislead.
Of course, it’s darn near impossible to find a center and avoid freaking out when draft afterthought Tyler Conklin outscores Ja’Marr Chase and A.J. Brown combined. To that point, fantasy’s a game of ups and downs. Need a better real-world example? Allen Lazard’s Week 1 (6-89-2) landed him as the WR3 overall in the 2024 opening week (and we know how that turned out).
I guess I’m saying avoid the hype—and don’t believe your lying eyes.
So I shook my crystal ball for a short list of potential Monday headlines that flip the Week 1 script on its head. Our Xfinity projections helped a little bit.
Return Of The Waddling Cheetah
Few players spent the week clogging their respective fantasy trade blocks like Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle. It took just four pathetic quarters of Fins football for bad offseason vibes to spark a mad dash for the exit, after a total shellacking at the hands of Daniel Jones and the Colts.
Fast forward to Monday—everyone who benched or traded away their Dolphins wound up with welts on their bottom from kicking themselves. Why? The regression door swings both ways.
Look for both MIA wideouts to build off +23% target per route rates with a sprinkle of efficiency to get home for patient fantasy GMs. The way New England’s secondary played on Sunday, Malik Washington could pop off, too.
Cincinnati Roars In Encore
I can’t believe how many people spent a week of their lives regretting taking Alpha Ja’Marr Chase in the first. Stop it! Nature corrects this Sunday for Bengals’ investors, as Joe Burrow and the boys thankfully get away from Myles Garrett for a while.
Jacksonville performed well defensively in the boxscore on Sunday, despite struggling to push Bryce Young off-platform (30% pressure rate). Allowing these Bengals to operate with the same level of comfort will hurt you where it counts in the game log.
Queue up everyone in orange stripes with confidence, including both tight ends for good measure. It’s a 40-burger or bust for Cincy (or maybe more)…
Ayomanor Realizes Potential
We’ve all followed our guy Ian Hartitz’s Sheesh Report for years, highlighting the players who simply deserved better. On the shortest list of Week 1’s leading candidates sits my guy, Tennessee’s Elic Ayomanor.
Had I told you last Friday the rookie wideout would earn seven targets on 28 routes (82%+ route participation), good for a whopping 133 total air yards—he’d likely already be occupying bench space on 100% of your fantasy rosters.
(Two catches and 13 measly receiving yards later, suddenly there’s powder blue trombone sounds off in the distance)
Yes, the entire Titan squad scuffled behind a debuting QB on the road in the altitude against a top-five NFL defense—what did you expect? Take advantage of any overreactions to TEN’s poor start while you can. Sean McVay’s zone-heavy approach doesn’t feature the same level of pressure package and should afford Cam Ward actual time to operate.
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About Last Night …
Thursday Night Football at Lambeau Field was electric, with Hall of Famer Sterling Sharpe being added to the Packers’ Ring of Honor. On the field, the Packers built an early lead behind Josh Jacobs’ running (84 yards and 1 TD) and Jordan Love’s passing (292 yards and 2 TDs) on the way to a 27-17 victory. Jacobs scored in his 10th straight game. Tucker Kraft continued his breakout with a 6-124-1 night. Jayden Daniels was valiant with 200 passing yards and 2 TDs, one each to Deebo Samuel and Zach Ertz.
What else happened last night?
Fantasy
Editors’ Picks
OK, Week 2 is underway. The shine is off the new season. We’ve got some data to work with, as well as rankings and projections. And this great content helps, too.
 | Time to buy low on A.J. Brown and Tyreek Hill? Chris Allen offers up players to target, even ones who are going at the top of their value. |
 | Start a rookie tight end in his second career game? Sit a former overall RB1 in an offense that exploded last week? These takes are not for the weak … but they are for those who want to win. |
 | What’s in the water in the Bay Area? Adam Ronis and Jorge Martin monitor the injuries happening to the 49ers and the rest of the league heading into Week 2. |
Fantasy
Week 2 Running Back Mismatches And Much More
Sssssh, don’t tell your leaguemates that James Conner and the Cardinals have one of the biggest mismatches for running backs this week. That Panthers were supposed to be better on defense, then it was more of the same when Travis Etienne and the Jaguars ran all over them. The game is in the desert, too. Are there more mismatches to exploit? Yup. And not just at running back.
Ian Hartitz provides so much fantasy goodness in the mismatches he uncovered for Week 2, they filled several articles. Here are the others:
Eagles-Chiefs Super Bowl rematch … get your popcorn ready and enjoy.
Justin Fields and the Jets offense continue to roll against the Bills.
Pass pro will open things up for Kyler Murray
Will the Raiders let Geno Smith cook? ⬇️
Fantasy
Travis Hunter Breakout Game On Tap?
It’s not every year that fantasy managers are left wondering whether the most talented rookie WR will even get a chance to make a fantasy impact.
Then again, players like Travis Hunter don’t come around every year.
The No. 2 overall pick introduced himself to the league by hauling in six of his eight targets. Despite leaving his defensive duties on read (six snaps), he netted only a modest 33 yards in a game dominated by the Jaguars running game.
Hunter left us waiting for more. Now it’s time to SMASH him for the encore.
With the first-game jitters out of the way, the Jaguars’ two-way threat has a massive opportunity to eat in a very exploitable matchup. In his first game as a pro, Hunter had the top utilization score among Jaguars receivers (ahead of Brian Thomas Jr.). The former Heisman trophy winner also saw the ball on 30% of his routes, another great sign for Hunter’s trajectory in Liam Coen’s offense.
Strategically speaking, getting gifted the Bengals’ defense is an opportunity you simply cannot pass up. Mark Drumheller is convinced Cincy’s serviceable performance against the Browns is more mirage than misread, and the step-up against a much more talented unit will be too much to handle. And he’s ready to take full advantage by smashing Hunter in all lineups as a WR2 or flex option. This is the week where his ability as a playmaker will shine, giving us a glimpse of his potential ceiling moving forward.
For more smashes (and some stashes!), read on. ⬇️
DFS
Approaching The Browns TEs In Week 2 DFS
One thing that novice DFS players have a hard time understanding is how a player can be a good play on one site and not on another, but scoring settings, pricing and ownership all matter a ton.
In this space each week, Pete Overzet wants to highlight a situation like this as a way to illustrate how you should look to get exposure to players on specific sites.
And no duo does that better in Week 2 than the Browns TEs.
Harold Fannin Jr.: ADP: 34.8 in Underdog Battle Royale—TE6; $3,100 on DraftKings
David Njoku: ADP: 35.5—TE11; $4,400
So let's break this down. Fannin shocked the fantasy world with his Week 1 Utilization, but Njoku's role wasn't awful (6 targets).
This sets us up with a situation where Fannin is a clear top play on DraftKings while Njoku is a clear top play on Underdog.
Fannin is $1,300 cheaper than Njoku on DraftKings, which is also full PPR. That lends itself well to how Fannin scored in Week 1, getting spammed with 9 targets.
On Underdog, however, he's the TE6, which means he'll be selected in most of the drafts. Meanwhile, Njoku is the TE11 with an ADP of 35.5, which means he'll be selected in very few drafts.
This makes Njoku the perfect scroll on Underdog, which rewards TDs more so than DraftKings because it is only .5 PPR.
On the flip side, Njoku is a very tough sell at $4400 and the sixth-most expensive TE on DraftKings.
TLDR: Fannin on DK, Njoku on Underdog.
Fantasy
Around the Watercooler
The latest fantasy nuggets, silliness, and NFL gossip from our merry band of football nerds.
🤔 Is Kyle Pitts startable? More start/sit questions answered.
🎸 It’s time for the Week 2 DFS Jam. Air guitar optional.
🪓 Fade these players in Guillotine LeaguesTM, or risk getting chopped.
💪 Are these offenses ready to bounce back in Week 2?
🏟️ ICYMI: ESPN Fantasy now has a "dome" icon next to players with indoor games.
🚀 Rome Odunze is ready to rise up.
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