⌛ It's Now Or Never For This RB
No excuses left...
Idea for today’s games: no one gets hurt…
In today’s Fantasy Life Newsletter presented by LG Channels:
Can you trust Tony Pollard today?
Morning Download: 2 Fantasy Stars return, 1 will not
Bets from the Group Chat: All-in on the rookie RB
Week 11 Injuries
Hidden Gems: New Life in Arizona
It’s 10/15. Take it away Peter Overzet…
It’s been a tortuous year to be a Tony Pollard manager.
The Cowboys have morphed into one of the league’s true juggernauts, but Pollard has been nowhere close to a beneficiary:
He hasn’t scored a TD since Week 1
He hasn’t cleared 55 rushing yards since Week 3
He’s surpassed 10 fantasy points once in the past six weeks
The Cowboys scored 49 points in Week 10 and Pollard’s share was 55 scoreless yards
Well, since then, the seas have parted for a redemption week. Which begs the question: can the year’s biggest fantasy disappointment rebound in Week 11?
✅ No Rico Dowdle?
Pollard certainly has a lot of his own issues—he’s graded out poorly in basically every advanced rushing metric—but second-string RB Rico Dowdle has also become a true thorn in his side, stealing valuable touches in recent weeks.
That might not be the case in Week 11, though:
Rico Dowdle downgraded to questionable for Week 11.
— Underdog NFL (@Underdog__NFL)
Nov 18, 2023
With Dowdle banged up and potentially limited, the Cowboys will have essentially no choice but to feed Pollard as many touches as he can handle.
✅ The Best Matchup For RBs
When you sort our Defense vs. Position (DVP) tool by points allowed to RBs, only the Denver Broncos have allowed more production to the position than the Carolina Panthers:
The Panthers have been weirdly good at limiting WR production (they’ve given up the third least amount of fantasy points), which sets them up as a true run funnel.
Sure, the Cowboys could still have their way through the air if they want, but the ground game will offer the path of least resistance.
✅ 10.5-Point Favorites
And if that’s not enough, it’s worth highlighting that the Cowboys are once again massive favorites (10.5 points, per our Game Hub).
If the game script goes as forecasted by these lines, there’s no reason the Cowboys won’t be salting away the clock in the second half on the ground.
⚖️ So What’s The Verdict?
None of these factors change the fact that Pollard has been bad this year. He’s undeniably been less efficient and lacked explosiveness. He also is completely unutilized in the passing game.
Despite all that, he clocks in as our consensus RB8 on the week, which makes him a must-start in virtually every managed league:
I’ll be fading him in DFS contests—some guys are similarly priced who I like more (Aaron Jones, De’Von Achane, Breece Hall, Josh Jacobs, etc.)—but you’re going to need to bite the bullet and fire him up in traditional formats.
Just be ready to sell him high immediately following the game if he shows any signs of life.
🛠️ Everything you need for Week 11
Read on for more info in the Morning Download on Justin Jefferson, De’Von Achane, and the Bears backfield.
For everything else you need for Week 11—including our Inactives page, which will update shortly after 11:30 am ET with all of the relevant status updates—you can get to your destination with a mere click of a button.
See our suite of tools to get you ready for today’s slate below:
The NFL landscape is constantly changing, with players’ statuses getting frequent updates throughout the week. Unfortunately, that includes Saturday.
If you were doing something better than following the NFL during the weekend – lucky you – let’s get you caught up on everything you might have missed courtesy of Matt LaMarca...
📝 Justin Jefferson Remains Out
There was optimism that Jefferson would be activated from IR in advance of the Vikings Sunday Night Football matchup vs. the Broncos, but he’s going to miss at least one more game. ESPN’s Adam Schefter reported that Jefferson will remain on IR, so his next chance to suit up will be next Monday vs. the Bears. Nothing like a star receiver being questionable heading into a Monday night contest.
On a more positive note, K.J. Osborn is likely to play after missing last week’s game with a concussion. With Jefferson sidelined, Osborn should serve as a low-end WR3 for fantasy purposes in his first game back.
However, the big winner here is T.J. Hockenson. He’s had two monster workloads with Josh Dobbs at quarterback, racking up 27 total targets. Now, he faces a Broncos’ defense that allows the most fantasy points per game to opposing tight ends.
He’s the No. 2 TE in our Week 11 rankings, but it wouldn’t shock me if he leads the position in fantasy scoring.
📝 De’Von Achane Returns
Achane set the league ablaze before landing on IR. He racked up 460 rushing yards and five touchdowns on just 38 carries – good for an eye-popping 12.1 yards per rush – and he added another 67 yards and two scores as a receiver. Overall, he finished as a top-five running back in PPR scoring in three of his four games.
Needless to say: you’re getting him back in your lineups immediately.
Achane checks in as RB16 in our consensus rankings for Week 11, but Dwain McFarland has him as high as RB7. Achane has already proven he can do big things with a small workload, so there’s less concern than usual for a player returning from injury.
Add in the fact that the Dolphins are favored by nearly two touchdowns vs. the Raiders, and this is the perfect opportunity for Achane to get his engine running before the fantasy playoffs.
📝 Bears Backfield Gets Messy
D’Onta Foreman has provided some value in the Chicago backfield of late, and he’s coming off an RB12 finish in PPR leagues in Week 10. Unfortunately, things look a lot more crowded in Week 11.
Khalil Herbert is set to return after missing the past five games with an injury, and he operated as the lead back before landing on IR. Foreman himself is also dealing with an injury, although he’s expected to suit up.
With Justin Fields also set to return vs. the Lions, who knows how the backfield touches are going to shake out? The Bears are also eight-point underdogs in Detroit, so there could be fewer touches to go around to begin with.
While Fields is a viable option at QB in his return, Foreman and Herbert are both outside the top 30 at running back. It’s probably best to see how this situation shakes out before putting either player in your lineup.
📺 Fantasy Life on LG Channels: LIVE TODAY at 11:00 am EST!
Get all of your last-minute news from the best in the business!!
Golden Tate, Kendall Valenzuela, and Ian Hartitz get you ready for all of the day's action on Fantasy Showtime Live exclusively on LG Channels!
When: TODAY at 11:00 am EST
Where: LG Channels on LG Smart TVs, WebOS-enabled devices and the LG Channels App
Who: The Fantasy Life team of Golden Tate, Kendall Valenzuela & Ian Hartitz
Why: Because they are going to get you ready to win your dominate your fantasy matchups before kick-off including:
Look who's back! Finally some good news!!
A New OC in Buffalo...what does that mean for Allen, Diggs and the rest of the Bills stars?
Ian's Bold Prediction!
Welcome to Week 11 of Bets from the Group Chat. This is where Geoff elicits as much information as he can from my Fantasy Life colleagues about their leans for this week. It’s really a selfish endeavor as he’ll probably be using some of their plays to offset his own losers.
After another winner, we are officially rolling. Since we started five weeks ago we are now 3-2 on the group 3-way parlays. Overall, the singular plays from the parlay section are 12-3.
You can find a longer recap by following the link at the bottom, but this week, we’re back for more and have another parlay AND ladder bets for Week 11.
Play to: -120
The Cardinals have drifted to +6.0 (opened at +4.0) and look like solid targets now that they are near a full TD on the spread. Houston has gone 0-3 ATS this season as a favorite and their defense is just 21st in EPA per play, making it potentially difficult for them to cover this big number.
Play to: -120
This one feels pretty straightforward. The Chiefs…off a bye. In Lamarca’s own words:
“When Patrick Mahomes is favored by less than three points, you take it. He's 15-4-1 ATS as an underdog or favorite of less than three for his career (including playoffs)... Add in a bye week for Andy Reid and this is tough to pass up.”
Play to: 19.5 (-110)
Aggregate projection: 27.0 receiving yards
The Dolphins have been weaker at guarding against the middle of the field all season, allowing the 11th most receiving yards against this year.
Mayer is in a near-every-down role now (88% of the snaps last week) and got five targets from his rookie QB last week. I don’t see any reason he can’t sail over this number for us in Week 11.
Cardinals +6.0 -110
Chiefs -2.5 -115
Michael Mayer over 18.5 receiving yards -117
You can tail our group parlay at BetMGM, where you can get up to $1,500 paid back in bonus bets when you sign up for a new account here!
Over 23.5 rec yards (-133) - play to 24.5 (-115)
Gibbs SGP: over 49.5 rec yards / anytime TD (+475) - play to +450
The Bears have allowed the most receiving yards against opposing RBs. Not only do they give up yards, but there have been multiple talented receiving RBs already who have torched Chicago's linebackers for big games (Austin Ekeler 7-45-1, Aaron Jones 2-86-1, Antonio Gibson 4-64).
Gibbs maintained a big role with Montgomery back last week (64% route rate, 5 targets, 34 yards receiving) and should be used a ton in this spot.
I like playing the same game parlay angle and taking Gibbs to go for 50+ yards and a TD this week as a way to cash in on the upside if the big game occurs.
🤔 Was the Logan Wilson hit on Joe Burrow dirty? His coach is defending him.
💰 Need Week 11 bets? We’re up +34.6 units in the last 30 days and have over 50 FREE bets waiting for you.
📅 When will Dallas Goedert return? Sounds like sooner rather than later.
📉 The new playoff outlook for the Bengals isn’t pretty. Oof.
🚑️ Week 11 injury roundup. Everything you need to know before setting your lineup.
🙌 Great news for the Steelers. They are getting a key weapon back.
✍️ Will Marquise Brown bounce back? History is on our side.
🔨 Stop! Hammer time. Week 11 bets that even MC Hammer would approve of.
🐬 Can you start both Miami RBs this week? Matthew weighs in.
🤝 Josh Allen vs. Zach Wilson? Interception Spiderman meme dot gif.
🤗 Brotherly love. Just in time for the holidays.
Everyone knows the best plays. Josh Allen, Christian McCaffrey, Tyreek Hill. But what about the sleepers no one else is on? Those are the guys that can vault you to the top of the leaderboard. In this weekly piece, Pete will go treasure hunting for Hidden Gems that you can draft in Battle Royale contests on Underdog Fantasy and in DFS contests.
💎 Arizona Cardinals Stack
Kyler Murray (ADP: 34.3; QB8)
Marquise Brown (ADP: 35.3, WR21)
There’s no question that Murray is fully back after orchestrating last week’s come-from-behind victory, including this vintage scramble for a first down to put the Cardinals in game-winning field goal range.
But for some reason, enthusiasm for Murray has not translated over to the Underdog Fantasy draft market, where he’s going as QB8.
His ADP indicates that he’s selected in less than 20% of drafts, and when he is taken, it’s almost always paired with his uber-popular TE, Trey McBride, who is going off the board as the TE3 and is selected in 100% of drafts.
This presents us with the perfect pivot to pass on McBride and pair Kyler with Hollywood for a unique, high-upside stack.
To sweeten things even further, this duo gives us sneaky access to the highest-scoring game (48-point over/under) on the main slate.
The Texans have allowed big games to QBs this year–they’ve given up the 8th most points to QBs—and Murray should get more comfortable as a passer with a full game under his belt.
Brown, who still maintains an elite usage profile (27% target market share and 41% air yard share on the year), narrowly missed a sheesh-worthy TD last week that would have made him more popular this week.