🎠 The NFL Coaching Carousel is MOVING

Super Wild Card Weekend simply sounds cooler than Wild Card Weekend…

In today’s Fantasy Life Newsletter presented by Fantasy Life on YouTube:

The NFL regular season ended less than a week ago, and there are already eight different teams now without a head coach:

• Chargers

• Commanders

• Falcons

• Panthers

• Raiders

• Seahawks

• Titans

Madness indeed – but there are already several reports and hints indicating who might be (or is) the next man up.

Take the Patriots, who, as of this morning, turned to assistant coach and former stud linebacker Jerod Mayo as their new face of the franchise.

The next-closest potential match would seemingly be the Raiders and interim head coach Antonio Pierce.

Raiders fans certainly made their opinion on the situation heard, but then again, this has hardly been the sort of organization to NOT take some swings for big names when given the opportunity in free agency.

Tentatively removing the Patriots and Raiders from the equation leaves six openings left with PLENTY of potential big-name head coaches available. In no particular order:

• Former Patriots head coach Bill Belichick

• Former Titans head coach Mike Vrabel

• Current Michigan head coach Jim Harbaugh

• Current Lions offensive coordinator Ben Johnson

• Current Ravens defensive coordinator Mike MacDonald

• Current Cowboys defensive coordinator Dan Quinn

And that doesn’t even include additional candidates like Texans OC Bobby Slowik, Bengals DC Lou Anarumo, Vikings DC Brian Flores, Dolphins OC Frank Smith, Seahawks OC Shane Waldron and Commanders OC Eric Bieniemy among other trendy names.

Current betting odds don't have any especially strong leans at the moment, as Harbaugh to the Chargers (-160), Belichick to the Falcons (+100) and Quinn to the Seahawks (+100) are the next-strongest favorites behind Pierce to the Raiders (-250). The timing for a lot of this will depend on when big-name coordinator candidates truly become available upon their current employer being eliminated from playoff contention.

Rumors are also already speculating that ANOTHER opening could potentially be on the way — perhaps depending on how certain games go this weekend.

It’s safe to say the 2024 offseason is off to a roaring start. Keep your head on a swivel out there, everyone — it looks like we’re just getting started.

The NFL is a matchup-driven league. Whether it’s exploiting the opponent’s weakest link, or simply scheming the offense’s best player into all the touches they can handle: Matchup-specific chess moves can be the difference between winning and losing January playoff games.

Good news: Ian has grinded the film and analytics alike to produce some key questions and answers revolving around some of the week’s biggest mismatches on both sides of the football. As always, it’s a great day to be great.

🔥 Will Joe Flacco stay hot against this suspect Texans secondary?

The Joe Flacco stuff was a bit funny at first. He led the team to a couple of wins while posting solid counting numbers thanks to high-end volume, so who cares if he had a worse EPA per dropback than Zach Wilson after his first three starts?

Then something funny happened: Flacco started playing a lot like one of the better QBs in the league.

• Week 13: -0.17 EPA per play (26th)

• Week 14: -0.03 (17th)

• Week 15: -0.37 (31st)

• Week 16: +0.42 (5th)

• Week 17: +0.17 (15th)

Flacco carries the position’s fifth-best EPA + CPOE composite score over the final three weeks of the season and the 19th-highest mark from Week 13 to 18 overall. In English: Mr. Elite has been incredibly accurate on his way to leading one of the game’s most efficient passing attacks over his last eight quarters of football, but the performance as a whole hasn’t been all that elite (sorry).

Of course, Flacco’s best performance came against this very defense back in Week 16 when he threw for 368 yards and a trio of scores. Note that one of his two INTs was simply an end zone heave with time expiring before halftime.

Still, that game highlighted just how different of a unit this Texans defense is without No. 3 overall pick Will Anderson in the picture. He’s still banged up with an ankle injury – as are a bunch of fellow defensive linemen – but the return of the potential defensive rookie of the year would certainly be appreciated against a Browns’ offensive line that has dealt with more injuries to their offensive tackles than just about any team out there.

The expected return of Amari Cooper (heel) should certainly help against the same group that he torched for 265 yards and a pair of scores.

Ultimately, it makes sense that the Browns are implied to score the fourth-most points of the Wild Card Round – they exploited this group last time out and have been willing to unleash the passing attack ever since turning the offense over to Flacco in Week 13.

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Whether it was The Ice Bowl, “Dez caught it” or Rodgers to Cook: The Cowboys and Packers have consistently found a way to make things dramatic during their storied postseason history.

There’s once again no shortage of storylines ahead of Sunday afternoon’s potential shootout at Jerry World. Allow Chris Allen to fill you in by presenting Fantasy Life’s matchup of the week: The Green Bay Packers at the Dallas Cowboys.

Win and in. One and done.

We’ve heard these two phrases often over the last week while transitioning from the regular season into Super (putting ‘Super’ in front really enhances the drama, right?) Wild Card weekend. And they sound so simplistic. But, at the same time, ignore either the current stakes or what it’s taken for each team to get here.

Think about the takes you’ll see on social media if Dallas goes ‘one and done’ against HC Mike McCarthy’s old team. Meanwhile, the vibes for the Packers, who needed a win to get in, couldn’t be better.

Ironically, ‘survive and advance’ might be the simplest way to describe this matchup, but we have to dive into the details to find the fantasy goodness.

🧀 Packers Outlook - Super Wild Card Weekend

Actually, we know who will be producing for Green Bay. And it starts at the top. Since their Week 6 bye, Jordan Love ranks in the top six in EPA per play (3rd), completion percentage over expected (4th) and passing success rate (6th). He’s finished as a top-12 fantasy QB in eight of 12 games, which ties for the second-most behind Josh Allen (9) and Jalen Hurts (9). And, given recent history, it’s not like the offense has become more pass-heavy in order for the first-time starter to rack up all these yards.

As of this writing, former DPOY Stephon Gilmore will be on the field with a harness to manage his shoulder injury from last week. Even at 75%, a secondary with Gilmore and Daron Bland, along with their pass rush, will put Love in a tough spot. But we’ve seen similar offensive styles give DC Dan Quinn problems. Look at the top-5 passers, by success rate (and their play-callers), to face Dallas:

• Brock Purdy (Kyle Shanahan)

• Tua Tagovailoa (Mike McDaniel)

• Josh Dobbs (Drew Petzing)

• Jalen Hurts (Brian Johnson)

• Geno Smith (Shane Waldron)

We know about the Shanahan-McDaniel connection and, of course, their ties to Packers’ HC Matt LaFleur. Plus, Cardinals’ OC Drew Petzing spent time under Kevin Stefanski in Cleveland, who employs a similar offensive approach. And from 2016 to 2020, Shane Waldron worked with Sean McVay. So, maybe the Packers’ chances of winning aren’t solely based on vibes.

Purdy (66.7% attempt rate) and Tua (50%) hammered the middle of the field (MoF) against Dallas. Intuitively, this makes sense. From Deebo Samuel to Tyreek Hill, getting your playmakers in space to create explosives is the recipe for success. Accordingly, both offenses combined for 350 yards and two scores, emphasizing this idea.

The Packers don’t have a Deebo or a Tyreek, but they’ve got two guys that can come close in a pinch.

Jayden Reed’s involvement continues to be a catalyst for the passing game. With Christian Watson (who has been limited in practice this week) out, the rookie slot man has led the team in targets. But it’s not just the volume that puts Reed in the spotlight for their playoff matchup. Where he has earned them will create the most chaos.

Since Week 13, Reed’s 28.2% air yard share on passing attempts between the numbers leads the team.

His ten looks from Love are averaging 16.0 air yards per target. And the result has been 113 yards and two TDs. Reed’s injuries have had him in and out of the lineup, forcing Green Bay to dig deeper into their reserves.

With Dontayvion Wicks (highest MoF route rate) and Bo Melton (the most MoF targets without Watson) as legitimate secondary options, Love has the talent within and around him to attack Dallas’ defense.

🚀 A pair of fantasy football disappointments set up for playoff success. Can you trust them?

📈 Utilization trends don’t only help in Fantasy Land. Data-driven props you need to bet NOW.

🎉 This long-time stud allegedly isn’t thinking about retirement. "I have no reason to stop playing football. I love it."

💰 Props, parlays and more for every. single. game. Best Bets for Wild Card Weekend.

👀 The Fantasy Life Playoff Show is here! The gang has some BOLD calls for Super Wild Card Weekend.

😬 Jalen Hurts gives an update on his finger injury. That doesn’t seem ideal.

🎥 Bill Belichick’s final Patriots press conference didn’t disappoint. “Haven't seen this many cameras since we signed Tebow.”

📺 You’ve got questions, we’ve got answers...for every Wild Card game this weekend.

🦁 Lions TE Sam LaPorta (knee) updates his injury status. His presence would be HUGE.

✍️ All-in on a Matthew Stafford homecoming? Sneaky DFS pivots for Wild Card Weekend.

It’s the weekend. You have a beer in one hand and your sportsbook app in the other: Life is good with the NFL playoffs ready to kick off in a matter of minutes.

One problem: You are a busy person with real-life responsibilities and aren’t quite sure what to bet. You want a sweat. You NEED a sweat, but gambling responsibly is important too.

Good news: Geoff Ulrich is back and has you covered with his BEST bets ahead of Super Wild Card Weekend. Lock in because the man brought some HEAT this week.

🐏 Best Bet: Rams +3.0 (-105, BetMGM)

• Play to: Rams moneyline +135

The Rams have an experience advantage at head coach that should matter. Sean McVay has run the gauntlet in the playoffs before and has been able to get a very young team to believe in itself this season. 

Per the Betting Life Thursday newsletter, McVay has also been solid in these kinds of spots before. He’s 16-10-2 ATS (18.2% ROI) as an underdog since taking over as head coach for the Rams and, as a road dog of at least +3, he’s 12-5-2 ATS (32.7% ROI).

I like the Rams to cover and pull out the outright upset this Sunday. 

📈 Prop: Josh Reynolds over 28.5 receiving yards (-110, BetMGM)

• Projection: 40.3

• Play to: 29.5 (-110)

Reynolds could be a pivotal player for Detroit this week. WR Kalif Raymond (knee, doubtful) likely won’t play and TE Sam LaPorta (knee, questionable) may not be 100% if he does play. WR Jameson Williams (ankle) also got banged up last week and may not be 100% (but he will play, per Dan Campbell), 

Reynolds had five games with 50 yards or receiving in his first six starts of 2023 (when Williams was suspended). In those six starts, he averaged 56.8 receiving yards and 4.5 targets per game – and that stretch included a Week 3 performance where he saw zero targets in 54 snaps. He’s also a solid ladder bet past 50 yards which could be combined with a TD prop as well. 

🐶 Prop: David Njoku over 54.5 receiving yards (-120, BetMGM)

• Projection: 61.6

• Play to: 55.5 yards (-115)

Even with his prop now in the mid-50s, this total seems extremely low for Njoku. The Cleveland TE has averaged 7 catches, 93.3 yards, and 1.0 TDs over his last four full games. The matchup against Houston, a team that allowed the second-most receptions and third-most yards to opposing TEs this year, also makes this a great time to be bullish. 

I wrote about Njoku being at a great price in the anytime TD market, but his yardage prop in this spot looks worth betting on as well. You have to figure the Texans – who got eviscerated for 265 yards by Amari Cooper in Week 16 – will be focusing more of their coverage on the Browns wideouts and potentially leaving Njoku as the primary target for Flacco in this contest.