🪓 NFL Coach Ousted in Surprise Move

Mike Vrabel and Arthur Smith reunion? Oh no…

In today's Fantasy Life Newsletter presented by Underdog Fantasy:

Black Monday is so 2023. Black Tuesday is the new hotness:

But the Titans firing Mike Vrabel is not the Falcons firing Arthur Smith. Vrabel is considered to be one of the best coaches in the league by many sharp evaluators, so this does come as a bit of a surprise…

He’s gone 6-18 in his last 24 games while the Titans have tried to retool on the fly, so it makes some sense that the organization wants to fully commit to a rebuild.

The Titans could have explored trading Vrabel—we’ve had some big returns for marquee coaches over the years—but they were apparently worried that it would drag the process out too long.

Everything about the Titans will look different in 2023. In addition to losing Vrabel, both Derrick Henry and Ryan Tannehill are free agents, while DeAndre Hopkins has a $15M cap hit.

Will Levis, Tyjae Spears, and Treylon Burks will try to lead the way, but this roster has 2025 1.01 written all over it.

As for Vrabel, expect him to land on his feet very quickly.

It’s all of a sudden a great year to need a new head coach.

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“How much blame does Trevor Lawrence deserve for the Jaguars' collapse?” Take it away, Ian…

The Jaguars entered 2023 as -175 favorites to win the AFC South and were even viewed as a trendy darkhorse AFC contender. And why not? They ended 2022 with a miraculous 27-point comeback victory over the Chargers in the Wild Card round and didn’t look overly out of place in Arrowhead during their 27-20 loss to the eventual Super Bowl champions. 

Rising third-year QB Trevor Lawrence flashed the sort of “generational” talent many expected out of the gate after he was selected with the No. 1 overall pick in the 2021 NFL Draft. It was easy to believe he would make a leap in his second season under long-time QB whisperer Doug Pederson – especially considering the team added former stud Falcons WR Calvin Ridley to an offense that already featured talented skill-position weapons like Travis Etienne, Christian Kirk, Evan Engram and even Zay Jones.

And then 2023 went ahead and actually happened.

🐆 Jaguars 2023 Recap

The team’s 8-3 start quickly built up warranted hope, but then Lawrence and company lost five of their last six games against the likes of Jake Browning, Joe Flacco, Lamar Jackson (okay, fine), Baker Mayfield and Ryan Tannehill.

The latter collapse lost Duval a chance to host a playoff game and win their second consecutive divisional title.

Let’s just say Lawrence didn’t exactly rise to the occasion late, unsuccessfully calling his own number on a failed 4th down conversion from the goal line before missing Ridley deep on what could have set up a game-tying two-point conversion attempt.

Jobs were quickly lost. DC Mike Caldwell and his staff were fired, as was RB coach Bernie Parmalee.

Head coach Doug Pederson and offensive coordinator Press Taylor are tentatively expected to continue leading the offense, but both are firmly on the hot seat after the league’s seventh-most expensive offense led by a former No. 1 overall pick averaged just 22.2 points per game (13th).

This leads to the key question that many will be attempting to wrap their minds around for the entirety of this offseason: How much of the Jaguars’ 2023 collapse was really on Trevor Lawrence?

🐆 Is Trevor Lawrence to blame?

First of all, injuries didn’t help. T-Law is probably in an ice bath somewhere as you’re reading this:

• Week 6: Bruised knee

• Week 13: Grade 3 high ankle sprain

• Week 15: Concussion

• Week 16: Sprained A/C joint

The longtime ironman would miss one game (his first since high school), although the ailments didn’t seem to overly impact his underlying efficiency numbers. Those metrics remained … pretty mid.

Among 32 qualified QBs:

• Overall: +0.071 EPA per dropback (17th), +0.9% CPOE (17th)

• Pre-Week 9 Bye: +0.064 (14th), +1% (17th)

• Post-Week 9 Bye: +0.079 (15th), +0.8% (12th)

This is really the story of Lawrence’s career at this point.

Even removing his disastrous Urban Meyer-induced rookie campaign from the equation doesn’t exactly put him in the same tier as the league’s very best QBs.

Of course, being around guys like Justin Herbert, Jared Goff and Joe Burrow in terms of efficiency metrics isn’t a bad thing, but when everyone has been forced to hear the phrase “Best QB prospect since Andrew Luck” for a good five years – the results are admittingly relatively underwhelming.

🦅 The team most likely to get upset this weekend? Here’s a clue.

📈 A WR entering the playoffs in his best form of the year? Trends to watch ahead of Super Wild Card Weekend.

👴 Age is just a number. These veteran RBs still have value.

💰 Bets are flowing in for Super Wild Card Weekend…and they’re all FREE!

🎉 Happy belated birthday to Chad Ochocinco. One-of-a-kind.

🤑 Do contract incentives matter? Cool stories from Week 18.

🚑️ Jim Irsay is dealing with health issues. An update here.

✍️ Fantasy football…in the playoffs?! You bet. Freedman’s favorite plays for Wild Card Weekend.

🧐 The backfield will look very different in 2024. Will they draft someone?

🤯 Can you guess how many QBs started all 17 games this season? The number will surprise you. 

🐻 One evaluator is convinced the Bears should keep Justin Fields. Here’s why.

The fantasy season is officially over, but Cooterdoodle is here to walk us through some post-championship buys, sells, and holds as we bring in a new year.

While our fantasy football season might be over, that doesn’t mean we’re ready to log off and unplug from fantasy football. We need to reflect on the season, adjust, and plan for the future. As the cool kids say: The grind never stops!

So let’s get into some buys, sells, and holds for the fantasy postseason.

🛒 BUY - There’s Still Plenty To Look Forward To

There’s always something to look forward to whether it’s NFL rivalries, rooting for underdogs, Super Bowl parties, or the 2024 NFL draft. 

But if we learned anything from Week 18, it’s that the NFL keeps on giving. Here are three areas to look forward to:

☕️ Players Spilling Tea

Even once the whistle blows, there’s plenty to watch. Post-game press conferences just might shed some light on where teams’ and players’ heads are at. Watch here as Justin Fields alludes to 2023 possibly being his ‘last rodeo’ with the Bears.

Or what about Jameis Winston’s viral post-game interview where he defended the Saints’ team-decision to score, even though their Head Coach said otherwise.

This has led to lots of speculation about the unity of the locker room in New Orleans and players are starting to take sides.

We can look forward to more player interviews/tweets with piping-hot tea. 

👀 High Hopes & Speculation

If there’s one thing I’m certain of, it’s NFL Speculation SZN. It doesn’t take much for fans and enthusiasts to read into anything as a clue. And there’s a new clue floating around!

So what do you think? Do you have high hopes that there’s a Rodgers & #17 reunion in 2024? Either way, speculation is fun!

🛍️ SELL - Too Early to Mock Draft

Mock drafts exist to serve as a temperature test. They can give us a sense of what the collective hive mind is thinking and how those values are being baked into players’ ADP. 

While it is early, it’s not TOO early. Any data is good data. 

Fantasy Life has kicked off our very own mock draft that we can’t wait to share (soon). But it’s not just us. You can find way too early, and even “Way, Way Too Early” rankings of players as early as last week.

By consuming information today, we can better prepare for the ‘reactionary’ ADP shifts in the offseason. Because ADP should shift between now and next season. By mocking now (and throughout the offseason), you can get a better baseline to make your own choices once the reactions do come. 

Remember: Act. Don’t react.