However, Patterson’s connection with the new OC wearing black and yellow creates more confusion than clarity.

Arthur Smith had C-Patt on the field for 25.2% of Atlanta’s snaps from inside the 10-yard line. In their infamous loss to the Panthers, Bijan Robinson even had a five-yard carry to the two-yard line before Smith put the vet in to score on a jet sweep. With the two reunited in Pittsburgh, it’d only make sense if something similar happened.

The Athletic’s Mark Kaboly has already lent credence to this idea. Patterson’s two-year, $6M deal sits just behind Gus Edwards’ deal in annual salary with LA. And Flash offers more as a runner and receiver. Plus, with Smith giving Patterson ‘Joker’ status in the past, the vet causing chaos in a backfield we’re all interested in might also make sense by the end of the season.

What is in today’s newsletter?

1. Matthew Freedman runs you through the most important stats to know for 2024.

2. A live fantasy football Q&A with Ian Hartitz…right now!

11 Stats From 2023 That Mean Something

by Matthew Freedman

Here are some (four, to be precise) player stats from last year that inform our season-long player projections (accessible with a FantasyLife+ subscription).

Not every 2023 stat is relevant for 2024 — but I think these stats are.

Lamar Jackson: 11% Scramble Rate

Last year Jackson rushed for "only" 51.3 yards per game — his lowest mark since becoming a starter in the second half of 2018.

Even so, he still put up 821 yards rushing in his second MVP campaign, and he led all regular starters with his 11% scramble rate (per our industry-leading Utilization Report).

Despite running less often, Jackson still has immense leg-leveraged upside.

Bijan Robinson: 96% Two-Minute Snap Rate

Despite accumulating 1,463 scrimmage yards last year, Robinson still disappointed relative to his hype as a rookie.

Even so, he was on the field more than any other NFL RB during the two-minute drill, which indicates his importance to the team and implies the possibility of increased usage this year.

Robinson is the consensus No. 2 RB in fantasy drafts (per the Fantasy Life ADP Tool), and I anticipate he'll live up to expectations.

Davante Adams: 79% WOPR

WOPR (weighted opportunity rating) measures the overall quality of a player's aerial role in his offense by considering his share of targets and air yards. (You can find the stat and other air yards data in our Fantasy Life Air Yards Tool). 

Despite playing in an offense with poor QB play last year, Adams still amassed 1,144 yards and eight TDs receiving thanks to his league-high 79% WOPR, and I expect him to be similarly involved in the 2024 Raiders offense, which should perform better with QB Gardner Minshew.

Even though he turns 32 in December, Adams is likely to have his fifth consecutive 1,000-yard season.

Trey McBride: 26% Target Rate 

No TE last year had more targets per route run than McBride, who broke out in the second half of the season with 66-655-3 receiving on 85 targets in 10 games after assuming the starting role in lieu of the injured (and then released) Zach Ertz (quad).

While the team added WR Marvin Harrison in the draft, it subtracted WRs Hollywood Brown and Rondale Moore this offseason, so McBride still has an excellent chance to earn targets at an elite rate within the Cardinals offense.

I have him ranked as my No. 1 TE this year. (Check out our new and customizable Fantasy Life Rankings Hub.)

RELATED CONTENT:

• Ian Hartitz ranks the top single-offense stacks in fantasy football for the 2024 season.

• Are tiers more important in best ball drafting than rankings? Pete Overzet weighs in.

• Thor Nystrom outlines a trio of rookie QBs to monitor in dynasty leagues.

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The latest analysis and insights from our merry band of football nerds:

👀 Have a fantasy football question? Ian is here to help…like, right now.

🚀 Is 2024 the breakout year for this WR1? Ian and Dwain weigh in.

🍿 A star WR fires back at a division rival. A Week 1 narrative in the making?

💪 Oh look, another RB in the ‘best shape of his career’. Which backfield could use his help?

🤠 This Cowboy is progressing through his recovery. No more boot, baby.

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