Targeting Upside At A Discount

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Running Back Arbitrage

• Breece Hall: RB12 ADP, 203.4 projected points

• Alvin Kamara: RB18 ADP, 219.7 projected points

Hall is one of the guys on my do-not-draft list, whereas Kamara seems to offer a lot of value, especially for those using a Zero RB strategy. 

Hall could lose work to No. 2 RB Braelon Allen, and he's unlikely to get many checkdown targets from scramble-happy QB Justin Fields.

Compare that to Kamara, who last year had a position-high 93 Utilization Score (per our industry-leading Fantasy Life Utilization Report) and now should benefit from offensive HC Kellen Moore's system.

Both guys are three-down backs with high-end pass-catching chops—but Kamara has the superior projection and is cheaper.

Why draft Hall in Round 3 when Kamara is available in Round 5?

Wide Receiver Arbitrage

• Tee Higgins: WR14 ADP, 194.7 projected points  

• DeVonta Smith: WR26 ADP, 195.1 projected points

Higgins and Smith are highly comparable. Both are high-end No. 2 WRs who play in top-tier offenses (Bengals, Eagles) and alongside dominant No. 1 WRs (Ja'Marr Chase, A.J. Brown).

And I project them both for similar target and yardage totals.

• Higgins: 115 targets, 1,057 yards

• Smith: 114 targets, 1,066 yards

But Higgins is going at the end of Round 2, whereas Smith is available at the end of Round 4.

And that makes little sense to me, especially when you consider that Higgins has missed 13 games to injury over the past four years while Smith has been sidelined for just three.

I don't actively dislike Higgins, who is a great player in his own right.

But I don't understand why I would take Higgins with a premium draft pick when I can spend less to get Smith.

Tight End Arbitrage

• T.J. Hockenson: TE5 ADP, 118.7 projected points  

• David Njoku: TE10 ADP, 164.4 projected points

Both Hockenson and Njoku are veterans well past the "will he break out?" phase of their careers. They've both been Pro Bowlers, and they both have multiple top-12 positional finishes on their record.

But I think Njoku will see significantly more targets this year, which will result in notably more production.

• Njoku: 113 targets | 80 receptions | 792 yards | 7.5 TDs

• Hockenson: 99 targets | 69 receptions | 686 yards | 2.6 TDs

After Jerry Jeudy, the Browns are uncertain at the WR position, so I can see Njoku once again serving as the team's No. 2 receiver—and in his six games with QB Joe Flacco in 2023, he had 37-483-4 receiving on 56 targets and a position-best 95 Utilization Score.

Additionally, Njoku has played 18 games without former QB Deshaun Watson over the past two seasons, and in those contests, he has 167 targets (including playoffs).

My gut agrees with his current projection … but, honestly, if he sees the kind of target volume this year that he's enjoyed previously in his sans-Watson games, then my projection will probably prove too conservative—and I don't think that Hockenson has a similar ceiling in his range of outcomes.

And that means I want to bypass Hockenson at the beginning of Round 6 and take Njoku at the end of Round 8 instead.

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