🔑 MNF Madness and KEY Week 3 Takeaways

Whispers: Alvin Kamara is BACK…

In today’s Fantasy Life Newsletter presented by Rival Fantasy:

Another Monday night doubleheader concluded an eventful Week 3 of the 2023 NFL season. Kudos to the Eagles and Bengals on their respective 25-11 (scorigami!) and 19-16 victories.

And yet, even the stars of the evening objectively left some meat on the bone throughout their performance:

• Eagles squeaky wheel WR A.J. Brown got the grease to the tune of a 9-131-0 receiving performance, although he also dropped potential one- and six-yard TDs during the victory.

• Buccaneers WR Mike Evans (5-60-1) failed to corral an imperfect 15-yard potential TD during his otherwise solid game.

It’s particularly hard to be all that upset about the latter receiver’s performance considering Evans made one of the better catches that you’ll ever see.

Kudos to Bengals WR Ja'Marr Chase (12-141-0) on also putting forward some rather great counting numbers, while fantasy managers had to know this surprisingly potent Cooper Kupp-less Rams offense would come back to Earth at some point (shoutout to Rams RB Kyren Williams playing 100% (!) of the snaps though).

Still, there was one HUGE takeaway beyond ballers balling that came to fruition on Monday night.

🦅 The Eagles seem to be insisting on a two-RB committee

It was clear who the better RB was on Monday night: D'Andre Swift (16-130-0 rushing) vastly outperformed Kenneth Gainwell (14-43-0) on a per-touch basis, as the former back largely picked up where he left off during Week 2's explosive breakout performance against the Vikings.

And yet: It was clear the Eagles don’t plan on fully turning over this backfield to any single individual with their two top RBs healthy (per PFF):

• Swift: 54% snaps, 16 carries, 20 routes, 2 targets

• Gainwell: 46% snaps, 14 carries, 16 routes, 2 targets

Pregame reports indicated the team would ride the hot hand, but that clearly wasn’t the case based on the near-even usage despite Swift obviously, you know, running much hotter.

The good news: Swift and (to a lesser extent) Gainwell look like good bets to see 15-plus combined carries and targets more weeks than not moving forward — that’s weekly borderline RB2 material at worst.

This sort of usage inside of a high-octane Philly offense is tough for fantasy managers to be overly critical about, though it’d be a lot cooler if whichever back is on your fantasy football team was given the true full-time job.

Another fun week of football, but you know the only thing cooler than your fantasy team sitting pretty at 3-0?

That same team moving on to 4-0. On to the next one.

Player usage might just be one piece of the fantasy football puzzle, but make no mistake about it: Utilization is the biggest piece out there.

Luckily for you, Fantasy Life Director of Analytics and all-around baller Dwain McFarland has you covered with the absolute biggest usage takeaways from Week 1.

🐬 1. De’Von Achane has the talent, but will the workload be there?

In Achane’s first true NFL action, he delivered an astounding 51 fantasy points on 233 total yards and four TDs. While the 188-pound third-round NFL draft pick will almost certainly remain in a rotation without multiple injuries to teammates, his upside in this offense is undeniable.

The Dolphins lead the NFL with a whopping 47% of their drives ending with a TD. That is 16 percentage points ahead of the second-place Chargers.

On the surface, this sort of dominance doesn’t seem sustainable, but Miami isn’t your typical offense. Their team speed and scheme continuously put opposing defenses in no-win situations.

Achane is right at home in this environment. He delivered a 75th-percentile explosive rush rate, with 20% of his carries going for 10 yards or more at Texas A&M.

The Shanahan coaching tree has had a long-time infatuation with this RB archetype (i.e., Clinton Portis, Tatum Bell, Elijah Mitchell) that can hit the long ball on any play.

How Mike McDaniel will ultimately divide up this backfield moving forward is uncertain, but the first data point was solid. Achane led the team in rushing attempts.

The Dolphins rested many starters in the fourth quarter when Chris Brooks saw most of his action. Over the first three quarters, Achane played 46% of snaps and led the team with 52% of rushing attempts. Mostert was the primary option in the passing game, but Achane was also heavily integrated into the game plan with a 36% targets per route run (TPRR).

Salvon Ahmed was inactive for Week 3, and while it’s true that might have opened the door for Achane, the rookie garnered a far more significant workload than Ahmed did in his two chances as the No. 2. Ahmed’s best game garnered just 16% of the rushing attempts.

Of course, the Dolphins backfield isn’t even at full strength right now. Jeff Wilson is eligible to return from the PUP in Week 5.

These factors could create doubt in the minds of some of your league mates. However, the same thing played out in 2017 with Alvin Kamara. Many couldn’t see past Kamara playing behind Mark Ingram (Mostert) and Adrian Peterson (Ahmed/Wilson) remaining in the picture early in the season.

What many fantasy managers didn’t envision was talent winning out and Kamara finishing as the RB3 overall without reaching 30% of the team’s rushing attempts. The Saints released Peterson in Week 4 that season and consolidated their attack down to two backs. While the Dolphins won’t likely release Wilson, his role could be minimal.

Achane is available in 59% of Yahoo! leagues, so many of you will be forced to make a decision on how to approach this situation. For that, we need to consider the range of outcomes.

📉 Realistic Floor: Three-way backfield

• 30% rushing attempts

• 25% route participation

• 8 to 10 fantasy points per game (PPG) with significant spike games

• Low-end to mid-range RB3

📊 Realistic Median: Two-way backfield

• 45% rushing attempts

• 35% route participation

• 11 to 13 PPG with significant spike weeks

• High-end RB3 to low-end RB2

📈 Realistic Ceiling: Lead in a two-way backfield

• 55% rushing attempts

• 50% route participation

• 14 to 16 PPG with eruption weeks

• Mid-range RB2 to low-end RB1

From an expected workload standpoint, Achane doesn’t grade out as well as last week’s waiver wire darling Jerome Ford, but that doesn’t mean we shouldn’t take an aggressive approach on the waiver wire.

Two weeks ago, we didn’t expect Kyren Williams to suddenly find himself as the No. 1 in LA, but here we are. Things can change quickly, and we want to buy into players with big-play ability on high-scoring offenses.

• FAAB Recommendation: 65%+

Outlook: Achane is a low-end RB2 with RB1 upside that can dramatically swing matchups in your favor when he hits.

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Week 3 has come and gone. 16 NFL games brought joy, laughs and tears to football fans and, of course, fantasy football faithful. Today, Ian focuses on the latter sadness and breaks down just how close some came to achieving fantasy football glory.

Presenting: The Sheesh Report, recapping all the near misses, close calls and general fantasy heartbreak from the last week of action. Starting with the top “Sheesh” moment from Week 3…

😢 Browns WR Amari Cooper was ROBBED

The Browns' No. 1 WR had himself a great afternoon at the office on Sunday, catching seven of eight targets for 116 yards and a score despite continuing to play through a groin injury.

However, Cooper’s performance could have been even bigger had the officials simply let him play football for just a little bit longer.

Specifically, a well-placed sideline pass from Deshaun Watson landed right in Cooper’s bread basket, only for the 29-year-old veteran to display some crafty footwork in order to stay inbounds and seemingly set himself up for a 65-yard TD.

One problem: The referees blew the whistle at the initial catch point, limiting Cooper to a 25-yard gain instead of far more.

Usually, the officials mess this sort of thing up on strip sacks that look like incompletions – this instance is completely inexcusable and made all the more brutal by the fact the official was STANDING RIGHT THERE.

It wasn’t a guarantee that Cooper would have scored, although he sure seemed to have the Titans’ last line of defense on absolute skates on his way to picking up an additional chunk of YAC.

Sadly, sometimes the best thing any of us can do in a situation like this is take a deep breath, take a long look in the mirror, and mutter one word: Sheesh.

☠️ Broncos WR Courtland Sutton had a productive, yet also horribly bad, day at the office

On the surface, Sutton’s 8-91-1 receiving line was pretty great.

Here’s the catch: Sutton was also on the wrong side of four separate sheeshes that wound up being the difference between his fantasy production being really good and being absolutely fantastic.

Overall, Sutton had a seven-yard TD nullified due to OPI on a (very questionable) illegal pick, lost not one, but TWO fumbles, and committed an egregious drop on what should have been a short four-yard TD before the half.

The OPI sheesh certainly wasn’t Sutton’s fault, but leaving 11.4 PPR points on the board with self-inflicted wounds otherwise is enough to make any fantasy manager feel awfully sheeshy.

🤏 Down at the one-yard line

These players managed to get the football within three feet of the goal line, but not quite across the plane. Sadly, they did not score on the same drive:

• Texans QB C.J. Stroud

• Eagles RB D’Andre Swift

• Raiders RB Josh Jacobs

• Chiefs RB Isiah Pacheco

• Dolphins RB De’Von Achane – yes, his day somehow could have been even bigger

• Chargers RB Joshua Kelley

• Vikings RB Alexander Mattison

• Packers RB Patrick Taylor

• Chiefs WR Rashee Rice (x2)

• Buccaneers WR Chris Godwin

• Buccaneers RB Rachaad White

• Rams RB Kyren Williams

• Panthers WR Adam Thielen

• Raiders WR Jakobi Meyers

• Chargers TE Gerald Everett

• Commanders TE Cole Turner

“Congrats” to Swift for having an NFL-high three such sheeshes through three weeks of action. Williams, Rice and Pacheco are the only other players with multiple instances of this sheeshy affair so far in 2023.

👀 It’ll be at least a week until Saints QB Derek Carr (shoulder) returns. Revenge game szn.

💰 The NFL has sure been throwing around some big fines lately. Sauce Gardner getting ahead of the conversation.

🗣️ Monumental pronunciation announcement. He’s earned it.

😃 Fantasy managers waited three long weeks for this. Guess who’s back.

❤️ HUGE update on America’s favorite couple. What a Love Story.

🛗 The Dolphins had one helluva Sunday. And now they have one helluva elevator door.

😔 Terrible injury news for one of the game’s premiere wide receivers. Prayers up.

🔥 Just how good has rookie Lions TE Sam LaPorta been through two weeks? Pretty, pretty, pretty good.

It’s time to churn our rosters again after another action-packed weekend. So, Chris is here to review some of the guys who popped in Week 3 and who are worth our attention on the waiver wire for Week 4…

Real and fantasy football is a war of attrition. Every week, we’ve seen someone leave the field, which opens up opportunities for someone farther down the depth chart.

Wait. Hold up a second.

Just got word the Dolphins scored another touchdown.

Regardless, you know the drill here. After all the action, we’ve got injuries, offensive shifts, and waiver claims to make. Let’s dive into the players worth picking up with FAAB recommendations (you can find them on our Waiver Wire tool) for each.

🐬 De’Von Achane, Dolphins

On the one hand, Achane had the highest share of the backfield totes in Miami’s blowout win over the Broncos. And his four targets were third-most on the team. He even had 71.4% of the team’s attempts in the red zone. No other RB has hit that mark this season.

But, on the other hand, Achane was still in a committee with Raheem Mostert. Despite leading the backfield, Achane’s share only amounted to less than half of the carries (42.9%). And over half of his yards came on three explosive plays.

With Jeff Wilson set to return, we’re in store for a three-way backfield, which will limit his weekly opportunity on paper. Some fantasy managers might place a timid bet on Achane.

Honestly, I’ll bet on talent.

It’s a horrific way to do analysis, but if you take away Achane’s runs of +10 yards, he’s left with a stat line of 15-70-1 as a ball carrier. However, his single-game efficiency metrics (60.0% success rate, 0.15 EPA per rush) rank in the top 5 since HC Mike McDaniel went to Miami.

His 14.3% target share? Mostert has only exceeded that mark once, and Wilson has done it twice since ‘22.

Achane’s speed was an instant fit with this offense, and Week 3 showed how critical he’ll be to their success in more competitive games throughout the rest of the regular season.

🔥 Nathaniel “Tank” Dell, Texans

Let’s take a quick look at Tank Dell’s come up over the last few weeks:

• Target share: 9.3% (Week 1), 23.3% (Week 2), 24.1% (Week 3)

• Air yard share: 13.1%, 22.9%, 55.7%

• Yards per route run: 1.21, 1.36, 5.58

To be clear, it’s not like I’m expecting them to increase. Robert Woods and Nico Collins will always be a factor, and the Texans’ offensive output will oscillate from good to bad as CJ Stroud develops.

But currently, Dell has a higher target share (18.3%) than DJ Moore (17.9%) and Terry McLaurin (17.4%). He’s seen more looks than the receivers we drafted, which should be enough to get him on your roster.

⚡ Joshua Palmer and Quentin Johnston, Chargers

Mike Williams’ season-ending injury doesn’t create an “either-or” situation with the remaining Chargers’ receivers. Honestly, we should roster both.

Palmer caught the touchdown pass to give the Chargers the lead and has at least one target in every game this season. He’ll naturally attract more attention and higher waiver bids. If you need production now, targeting Palmer makes sense. He was the next man up after Williams’ injury and ran the same number of routes as Keenan Allen in the fourth quarter.

But let’s say you’re 3-0 and have some bench fodder.

Quentin Johnston has some appeal over someone like Rashod Bateman. Johnston at least matched his season-high targets (3) while working closer to the LOS (0.7 air yards per target) to get him in space.

It might be a slow burn, but the Chargers do need to bring him on quickly to keep pace with the rest of the AFC.