Up until recently, it was widely assumed that Russell Wilson would be the starter with Justin Fields on the backburner.

Over the weekend, though, ESPN’s Dan Graziano said not so fast:

“It’s a lot more of a coin flip than most think... I’m going to go out on a limb here and say Fields will show enough through camp to catch him and claim the Week 1 starting point… The vibes didn’t start off great for Wilson, and I just think the Steelers are going to be too tempted by Fields’ upside once they see them both out there.”

Even though this is just a reporter’s hunch, it has pretty big ramifications in fantasy. Fields had five Top-5 finishes at QB in 2023. That kind of upside can’t be ignored.

If we knew he was going to start 17 games, he’d likely be a Round 7 selection right alongside Kyler Murray. If you have early drafts, it’s worth taking Fields with a last pick. If he wins the job, you just unearthed a Top-8 QB at bargain prices. If they elect to stick with Wilson, you can toss him back into the waiver heap.

What else is in today’s newsletter?

1. Chris Allen: How to draft from the 1.10

2. Watercooler: When will we see Jonathon Brooks in action?

Optimal Draft Strategy with the No. 1.10 Pick

by Chris Allen

Try and sell drafting from the 1.10 to a friend. You can’t.

“Yes, please come join our league, where three-quarters of it will pick before you.”

I’d feel set up and led astray. My so-called friends bamboozled me. I “get” a chance to draft the 10th-best player. That sounds great. Just tell me where to pay my dues.

Of course, I’m overreacting. Sure, the first round puts you at a disadvantage. However, recognizing you’re pulling from within an early tier of skill players positions you to scoop up value later. And we can harness the turn to push or pull optimal picks onto our lineup.

In short, the 1.10 isn’t so bad. But let’s dive into it. 

The First Round

Setting expectations makes the task of watching nine players go off the board a bit easier. If you knew who’d be there, or even a range of options, you can make a (loose) plan. Luckily, our Draft Champion tool can set the stage for the first round.

I cycled through the other fantasy football ADP sources (e.g., Yahoo!, NFFC, etc.) and got the same top result. Jonathan Taylor did pop into the other suggestions a time or two. But this is (likely) our pool at the 1.10. And all of them are ideal selections.

Justin Jefferson could easily go at the 1.07. A three-spot drop in the first round presents an incredible value proposition. But if you’re concerned about the Vikings’ QB situation, Garrett Wilson, A.J. Brown, or Puka Nacua have paths to being top 5 at their position. Two of the three did it last year. So, let’s talk about Jahmyr Gibbs for a second.

Detroit’s rookie rusher posted top-10 marks in EPA per attempt, adjusted yards after contact, and forced missed tackle rate. Combined with a 12.1% explosive rush rate (second amongst all RBs), Gibbs’ rushing talent at the pro level matched his collegiate hype. Plus, of all the rushers with 200 or more carries, only Breece Hall and Christian McCaffrey saw more targets. Gibbs’ only impediment to cementing himself as a bellcow is his red-zone usage.

Per the Utilization Report, Gibbs didn’t take over carries from inside the five-yard line until the end of the regular season (Weeks 15-18). With David Montgomery healthy, Gibbs was able to convert his short-yardage carries into TDs at a similar rate (33.3% vs. 42.9%). With another offseason to grow in an offense with the lowest red-zone PROE, Gibbs has the talent and potential usage to return first-round value.

Regardless, at the 10 spot, the first round isn’t just about who you’re taking. You’re back up in four picks. There’s no time to marvel at filling your first starter spot. Accordingly, you’ll need a draft strategy preference.

Notice I said preference. It doesn’t mean picking Zero RB and rigidly sticking to it despite more optimal players being available. The inclination is a (temporary) guide. And with your second pick coming right around the corner, both the player and how they fit into your structure will be important points to consider.

• Team 1: Jahmyr Gibbs (Hero RB)

• Team 2: Justin Jefferson (Hero RB)

• Team 3: Puka Nacua (Robust RB)

The 18-pick gap necessitates an early roster plan. However, as Teams 1 and 2 in our multiverse indicate, we can execute the same strategy despite opening with a different position. In any case, we’ll need to watch the draft board and make adjustments as the rest of the early rounds unfold.

Related Content

• Drafting from the 1.07: Bring on Bijan

• Drafting from the 1.08: Breece, baby

• Drafting from the 1.09: Is AJB an ADP value?

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The latest fantasy nuggets, silliness, and NFL gossip from our merry band of football nerds:

📈 Could George Pickens be a WR1 in 2024? Ian and Chris break down the WR position.

💎 Must-draft players for 2024. Who is Ian Hartitz highest on?

👀 One running back you won’t want to leave drafts without. Who is it?

💰️ Tyreek Hill got paid. That’s a lot of money.

🧀 Key observations from Packers’ family night. WR mess?

💪 Barkley & Hurts are locked in… and fearless.

📆 When should we expect to see Jonathon Brooks? An update here.

🤣 This Chris Olave clip is hilarious. And a tough look for the Saints.

🚑️ Bummer news for the Cardinals. Lost a key piece of their defense.

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