😬 We Like WHO for MVP?

“You miss 100% of the bets you don’t make.” - Matthew Freedman

In today’s Fantasy Life Newsletter presented by BetMGM:

Hey y’all. It’s Matt Freedman. The Oracle: “No wife, no job, just pure football knowledge.”

That’s not entirely true. I have a wife, NBD. And just partial football knowledge. Also, have a job: I’m now a full-time analyst for Fantasy Life.

As such, I’m teaming up with Matt McCuen (aka Dead Prez) to launch “Betting Life,” which is exactly what it sounds like: “Fantasy Life + Betting.”

I’ll still do fantasy content. I had to take less money to secure this concession -- Matthew Berry’s a real Vito Corleone as a negotiator -- but it was totally worth it. You can find my fantasy rankings on the site.

But most of my time will be spent on making you an offer you can’t refuse: Free betting content, like my 2023 Dolphins betting preview.

One bet I like for the Dolphins is QB Tua Tagovailoa to win MVP, which is available at +1600 at BetMGM.

In case you’re unfamiliar with American odds, +1600 means “bet $100 to win $1,600.”

🐬 Tua Tagovailoa MVP

If you look at the past 10 MVP winners -- all of them QBs -- you’ll see that, unless a guy has paradigm-shifting rushing ability like Cam Newton (2015) or Lamar Jackson (2019), he needs to be elite in two specific nerdy efficiency metrics.

The first is composite expected points added and completion percentage over expected (EPA + CPOE, via RBs Don’t Matter). The second is adjusted yards per pass attempt (AY/A, which was introduced by Bob Carroll, Pete Palmer, and John Thorn in the 1988 classic The Hidden Game of Football).

Last year, Patrick Mahomes was No. 1 in EPA + CPOE and No. 2 in AY/A. The same with Aaron Rodgers in 2021. You get the idea. If a guy is at the top in these metrics, he has a strong chance to win MVP.

Here’s why I bring this up. Last year, Tua was No. 2 in EPA + CPOE and No. 1 in AY/A.

Translation: We’ve already seen Tua have an MVP-caliber season.

And he did it in his first year in a Shanahan-style system. Normally, QBs struggle in their first year in such a scheme. Think back to Matt Ryan with HC Kyle Shanahan in 2015 or Rodgers with HC Matt LaFleur in 2019. They didn’t have great campaigns.

It’s normally in a QB’s second season in a Shanahan offense that he takes a big step forward. Hence, Ryan and Rodgers winning MVPs in 2016 and 2020. What this theoretically means is that -- as great as he was last year -- Tua could be even better in 2023 in HC Mike McDaniel’s offense.

For a QB to get MVP, his team needs to win a lot of games, and because the league is so driven by passing, excellent QB efficiency tends to result in wins. If Tua stays healthy and repeats (or improves upon) his 2022 performance, I expect the Dolphins to win enough games to compete for a top-two seed, which will make Tua live to win the award.

For more bets from everyone on the Betting Life team, check out our 100% FREE bet tracker.

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Looking for a bet? Geoff Ulrich has you covered.

Geoff is betting on: Hideki Matsuyama

• +8000 (to win outright)

• +250 (Top-20 Finish)

• +350 (Group F Winner)

Outside of one hiccup in Detroit, Matsuyama has been superb with his ball striking since getting over an early season injury. He should also like this year’s more technical Open setup at Royal Liverpool, which shares similarities with Florida venues like TPC Sawgrass where he finished 5th this season and has three career top 10s.

Seven of the past 11 winners of the Open have been 30 years of age or older, putting the 31-year-old Matsuyama in a prime spot to contend. At 80-1 he looks vastly underpriced and makes for a great long shot, outright target – but is also a player I would not hesitate to target in either the top 20 market (+250) or group betting (Group F, +350) on BetMGM.

Humans are intrinsically flawed creatures, so let’s use that to our advantage. Each week, Cooterdoodle will walk us through the internal mind of a fantasy football player. For better or for worse, let’s get inside those mushy little brains and engage in some mental warfare. Let’s go mental!

🧠 Cognitive Bias #1: Risk Compensation

Before we get too consumed by everything that is fantasy football (too late?), let’s zoom out to get a bird’s eye view of the entire situation.

I’m serious. Forget about what draft pick you have in your home league for a second. Stop worrying about sleepers for just one f*cking minute and ZOOM OUT!

Okay, good. You can see everything more clearly from up here. So let’s talk about taking risks. We all do it, but we are more likely to be risk-takers if we feel safe. It’s all about Risk Compensation.

The safer we feel, the bigger the risks we are willing to take.

But the inverse is also true. So when the perceived risk is greater, we tend to be more careful.

If we understand our cognitive biases toward taking risks, we can use them to our advantage.

🧐 So how does this apply to fantasy football?

🔔 Drafting

If you feel comfortable with your early draft picks, you’re more likely to take riskier picks later in your draft.

We love to talk about drafting in terms of ADP and value, but risk assessment also plays a role in how we pick players. If I’ve drafted Austin Ekeler or Bijan Robinson, I’m much more comfortable taking a gamble on Alvin Kamara later on.

As you draft, keep your bird’s eye view and remember that we’re all susceptible to the hubris that comes with Risk Compensation.

I’m not saying that you should avoid risky draft picks, but I do think you should take a moment to ask yourself if it’s truly a risk you’re willing to take.

🚫 Trading 

When proposing trades throughout the season, keep in mind your leaguemate’s perspective and perceived feelings of safety.

If they’ve been on a losing streak and their risk of coming in last place is steadily increasing, they’re probably less likely to want to make a trade for your boom/bust player. A guy that’s safe and secure is much more palatable.

So if your league is being more careful and afraid to trade, it’s nothing personal. They’re just captive to the vortex of risk compensation. Try proposing a trade that’s going to make them feel safer, so they’re willing to take that risk.

🤑 FAAB

This is my favorite, because now I can finally explain why I keep blowing all of my FAAB before we even make it to Week 5. 

I JUST FELT SAFE, OKAY?

Sure, some people love to hoard their FAAB, but I like to call those people ‘inactive leaguemates’.

Don’t make fun of the guy who spends 45% of their FAAB in Week 3. They just feel safe enough to take a big risk, that’s all.

So the next time you’re about to drop a lot of fake dough or draft a super risky player with a really high ceiling and an even lower floor, ask yourself if it’s truly something you want to do or if you’re just a little too comfortable. 

🎙 The NFLPA Prez spoke up. He said WHAT?

😍 “He was exactly what we were looking for.” Who’s this beloved rookie RB?

🏆 Need help at WR? Find out who Dwain McFarland is high on.

💰 This 1000x. Get played, not paid.

💯 “We could’ve walked away.” The Rams are all-in on THIS player.

🔥 It’s officially “Expert Draft SZN.” 20 rounds of PURE HEAT.

❓ I thought we wanted to avoid the RB “Dead Zone”? We’ve never seen this before.

🐶 Lamar Jackson: Consummate road underdog.

📞 Is getting your fantasy questions answered something you would be interested in? We’re only one call away.

Drafting with correlation in mind should always be a part of our plan when we get into a best ball draft. But sometimes, we can’t get the best stacking partners for our QB, and our knee-jerk reaction is to draft the last guy on the depth chart. Instead of making that click, Chris walks through what types of offenses to target and a few options for the 2023 season.

I sometimes take correlation too far in best ball drafts.

I’ll pick Jalen Hurts, miss out on all the popular stack options, and talk myself into Quez Watkins being the guy I need for Week 17.

Danny Gray got Day 2 draft capital from Kyle Shanahan? I guess I didn’t need to take George Kittle.

The examples are endless, as we can use any training camp clip or bit of coach speak to justify the click. That is, as long as it completes our stack.

But drafting to make pretty, correlated rosters will make us more Schrute Bucks than actual dollars. And late-round picks already feel like dart throws.

So, to maximize both approaches, I looked into the diminishing returns on stacks as we get deeper into the draft.

🔎 Finding Teams We Should Target

Profiles and archetypes give us a method to follow rather than specific names to target. In short, it makes the analysis more adaptable. Luckily, Underdog had free data from past Best Ball Mania drafts I could use to generate a list of the top five teams with players that hit from the late rounds. From here, we can pull out where our focus should be:

• 2022: Panthers, Jaguars, Chiefs, Saints, Cardinals

• 2021: Patriots, Buccaneers, Titans, Cardinals, Browns

• 2020: Bengals, Texans, Colts, Raiders, 49ers

The teams from 2022 alone give us a starting point: nebulous offenses. Arizona traded for Marquise Brown, drafted Trey McBride on Day 2, and had to wait six games for DeAndre Hopkins to return.

We had no idea what Kansas City’s offense would look like without Tyreek Hill. Trevor Lawrence got an adult as his head coach.

Other than Kansas City, the vibes surrounding the other squads weren’t great. As a result, we got discounts on players with easier paths to routes, touches, and fantasy points. And we’re seeing it happen again this season with early QBs garnering most of our attention.

Vegas team totals have pointed us to the teams we should target, and overall hype for other offenses has pushed them into the spotlight. But we can’t always be sure about who will underperform.

A signing, trade, or modest step forward in skills can change our opinion. And after looking at the late-round options, I’ve got three teams worth eyeing in the late rounds instead of trying to build out suboptimal stacks.

🧀 Green Bay Packers

Before you rush to look at Jordan Love’s lone start against KC in Week 9 of 2021, remember the Chiefs’ defense was seventh in DVOA. They pressured him on 48.7% of his dropbacks. However, the outlook for the Packers after losing their future Hall of Fame QB isn’t as bleak.

The offense took a step back in ’22 without Davante Adams. Their pass rate over expected (PROE) dropped to -3.0%, matching Love’s PROE in that Week 9 game two seasons ago. Plus, Love scrambled on 10.3% of his dropbacks, which lifts the floor of the offense’s efficiency.

With Love continuing to develop, we should look to his pass-catching options outside of the explosive Christian Watson, and one’s already standing out:

Jayden Reed’s already working as the team’s starting slot WR after the GM identified a need for a player fitting that role earlier in the offseason. And with Green Bay set to face a defense that allowed the 10th-most QB1 finishes last season in the final week of the tournament, the Packers offer stronger potential in the late rounds than some of the popular options.

Preferred Targets: Jayden Reed (ADP: 169.1), Luke Musgrave (204.4)