📈 Late-Round Darts on the Rise

‘U ain’t god. Go get ready for work.’ is an all-time bar.

In today’s Fantasy Life Newsletter presented by BetMGM:

Let’s be honest. We all treat the news coming out of minicamps a bit differently. Sometimes, all that matters is the player.

For instance, if Malik Nabers looks like vintage Odell Beckham Jr. at practice, a simple clip can reaffirm our belief in his third-round ADP on Underdog. Similarly, Amari Cooper’s unexcused absence yesterday only adds more apathy to his fantasy appeal despite being the Browns’ unquestioned WR1 (Deshaun Watson’s rehab notwithstanding).

But let’s keep that same energy for the second and third-string options. If some of them are going to be the ‘guys we need’, we need to adjust as the drumbeats out of camp pick up. A couple of storylines from Tuesday caught my eye.

💪 Jaleel McLaughlin: Bigger, Faster, Stronger

I’ve got to hand it to Jaleen McLaughlin. He’s mastered almost every offseason trope in the book. From gym rat to being in the best shape of his life, the Notre Dame product has his sights set on securing the RB2 job (assuming Samaje Perine doesn’t make the final roster) after the team drafted Audric Estime and Blake Watson.

But after posting back-to-back Top 12 outings with Javonte Williams out and hitting high-end marks as a dual-threat rusher, you’d think he’d have the job in the bag.

• YPRR: 5th (min. 25 targets)

• YAC per Reception: 9th

• Explosive Play Rate: 14th

But at 190 lbs, his limitations as a blocker are obvious. If McLaughlin’s pass-blocking improves and can hold off the rookies, his 13th-round ADP will look like a steal. And on a team that had the highest share of targets go to RBs in 2023 (32.1%), McLaughlin should be a priority target regardless of draft strategy.

🤔 Chase Claypool: Fourth Time’s A Charm?

Josh Allen, the current QB1 in fantasy by ADP, on Chase Claypool:

“He’s a big body, and can run very fast. He seems like he’s very bought in… I feel like he’s doing the little things right.. He has been very easy to throw to.”

Honestly, I (like most of you) dismissed this at first glance. It’s a press conference, and it’s not like we have any video clips to prove Allen and Claypool have any chemistry. But I mentioned Allen’s positional rank as a reminder we should pay attention to any pass-catcher attached to our elite QBs. Plus, Claypool’s situation is one worth targeting.

Let’s set aside Khalil Shakir’s lower-body injury for now. Claypool has logged a majority of his snaps on the perimeter anyway. Furthermore, the former Dolphin has a rookie, a (soon-to-be) 30-year-old vet, and a guy who hates soup as his competition for snaps.

After seeing how things ended up for Justin Fields, I can understand how things didn’t work out for Mapletron in Chicago. And trying to take away targets from Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle has been a losing battle for anyone Miami’s signed to back up their dynamic duo. So maybe, just maybe, betting on a big, fast WR on the other end of an Allen pass might work out. Whomst among us hasn’t made a worse last-round pick?

But if you’re looking for a stronger bet, I’ve got good news…

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💵 Who wants to be a millionaire? The keys to winning life-changing money in best ball.

🧀 More MarShawn Lloyd propaganda? I’m here for it.

⛳️ The U.S. Open tees off tomorrow. Everything you need to bet with confidence.

😨 EA releases the cover athlete for Madden 25. I’m not superstitious, but I’m a little-stitious.

😅 Jets' QB1 misses practice. But I thought the team needed to avoid distractions.

😲 Drake Maye plays dodgeball with kids. Look out!

⚜ Saints may have a new third WR. It’s his time to shine.

🚀 Terry McLaurin commenting on his QB. This offense is gonna be wild…

We get it. You see Saints, and then you remember Derek Carr is involved, and your eyes glaze over. It happens. But do you wanna know the best way to get excited about NOLA’s offense? Learn about their WRs! And, of course, to give you all you need to know, Ian Hartitz is here with the fantasy notes to have you looking for NO pass-catchers in every draft. Take it away, Ian…

💥 Wide Receiver

• WR1: Chris Olave (WR13)

• WR2: Rashid Shaheed (WR55)

• WR3: A.T. Perry (WR90)

• WR4: Bub Means

• WR5: Cedrick Wilson

• WR6: Equanimeous St. Brown

Olave has started his career with back-to-back 1,000-plus yard seasons, but nine total TDs have limited him to relatively underwhelming WR26 and WR19 finishes in PPR points per game.

Of course, the story of the 2022 NFL Draft's 11th overall pick's career thus far has been the missed opportunities at hand. ESPN's ninth-best WR in "Open Score" over the past two seasons, ball-watchers are fully aware of just how much meat has been left on the bone here.

We can help quantify this through "Unrealized Air Yards." Air yards measure the distance that any given pass travels (wait for it) through the air. Subtracting yards after the catch from every player’s receiving yardage total before taking the difference with total air yards helps us pinpoint exactly how much opportunity through the air a player failed to come down with for one reason or another.

Sometimes unrealized air yards are more akin to “prayer yards” because the pass wasn’t exactly catchable in the first place, while in other instances can be blamed more so on the WR. As is the case with most things in life: Grinding the film helps add clarity to the situation.

Anyway, just five WRs accumulated over 1,000 unrealized air yards last season:

1. Texans WR DeAndre Hopkins (1,149)

2. Saints WR Chris Olave (1,145)

3. Raiders WR Davante Adams (1,091)

4. Jaguars WR Calvin Ridley (1,024)

5. Jets WR Garrett Wilson (1,010)

Yes, it's a shame to see that much wasted opportunity. Also yes, we can be pretty confident at this point that, 1.) Olave is pretty damn good at football, and 2.) This offense is fully willing to feature him as their undisputed No. 1 WR. After all, Olave was one of just eight WRs to demand at least 40% of their offense's air yards and 25% of the targets in 2023.

Further helping matters is the absence of longtime injury-riddled stud Michael Thomas. Note that Olave ripped off PPR WR9, WR19, WR16, WR27 (injured early), WR13, WR63 and WR26 finishes after Thomas was lost for the season in Week 10.

That injury also opened things up for Rashid Shaheed, who returned from a hamstring injury to post a pair of top-24 finishes during the final four weeks of the season. The Saints were happy to feature Olave (86% routes) and Shaheed (79%) as the clear-cut top two WRs ahead of A.T. Perry (59%), Lynn Bowden (23%) and Keith Kirkwood (17%) during this final month stretch.

Intriguingly, the offseason came and went without any serious competition being added to this room with all due respect to fifth-round WR Bub Means and career backups Equanimeous St. Brown and Cedrick Wilson.

This should set up Shaheed to work as Carr's clear-cut No. 2 WR – something that could produce fireworks if he manages to maintain his elite early-career efficiency: Shaheed ranks first (!) in yards per target (11.1) among all players with 100-plus targets over the past two seasons. The man is a certified baller who has made the most out of his opportunities since entering the league in 2022.

✍️ Bottom line

I'm buying a year-three breakout for Olave and think he belongs in the current second-round conversation, even if that is a steep price to pay for that entire group of WRs in general. Shaheed (WR55, pick 111.6) is also in play, although I usually find myself addressing other positions in that area of the draft due to usually already having a handful of solid WRs rostered at that point.