🗝️ KEY questions ahead of the fantasy playoffs

Fun fact: Tickets to Falcons-Panthers are as low as $0.45 this weekend…

In today’s Fantasy Life Newsletter presented by Masterworks:

Thursday night featured one of the worst beatdowns we’ve ever seen. Well, okay, that we’ve seen since Week 5 when the Dolphins embarrassed the Broncos 70-20.

Either way: Things got out of hand out there.

Luckily, or depending on your opponent, unluckily, a combined 84 points meant LOADS of fantasy production. Aidan O'Connell and Easton Stick combined to throw for seven TDs, for crying out loud – one more than Kenny Pickett has this season (6) for those counting at home.

Overall, the Raiders became the first team since the 1950 Rams to have eight different players score a TD in a game. Madness.

Of course, the biggest fantasy storyline coming in was what to make of Raiders RB Zamir White with Josh Jacobs (quad) out of the picture. All the second-year back did was rack up 85 total yards and a score on 20 touches, dominating utilization along the way.

• Zamir White: 70% snaps, 57% routes

• Ameer Abdullah: 27%, 24%

• Brandon Bolden: 3%, 0%

White will find himself alongside Davante Adams (8-101-1) and Jakobi Meyers (2-32-1) as more than viable fantasy starts for Week 16’s trip to Arrowhead, while at this point Austin Ekeler (38-scoreless yards) is pretty much the only somewhat trustworthy Charger with Justin Herbert (finger) and Keenan Allen (heel) sidelined – and that’s in the unlikely scenario that Ekeler managers managed to make it this far in the first place.

A few final noteworthy highlights that somehow all occurred AFTER the first-half beatdown:

• Raiders Head Coach Antonio Pierce — no stranger to running up the score — was up 42-0 after 30 minutes of football. His halftime message to the team? “Press the gas pedal even harder.”

• Raiders WR Jakobi Meyers THREW a TD to Davante Adams up six scores, because why wouldn’t he? This is America, after all.

• Was there a big man TD? OF COURSE!

• The Chargers Twitter account continued to add to their Hall of Fame legacy.

• Raiders CB Jack Jones made a SWEET one-handed interception and took it to the house to push the Raiders’ final tally to 63, eliciting pure astonishment and joy from owner Mark Davis.

There’s nothing like carrying a solid fantasy lead into the weekend after a strong showing on Thursday night. Accordingly, it f*cking sucks to be staring down the barrel of a seemingly insurmountable deficit just one game into the week.

You know what the best thing to do is either way? Control the controllable — and just win, baby. Let’s attempt to do just that by focusing on the BIGGEST questions ahead of the rest of Week 15.

You may have heard the NFL is a week-to-week league. Depth charts, injuries, coaches: Things change all the time in a sport centered around 22 modern-day gladiators consistently running into each other over and over again while playing with a ball that isn’t even round.

Lucky for you: Ian has made it his life’s purpose to break down 10 of the week’s biggest questions ahead of a pivotal Week 15. As always: It’s a great day to be great.

🤔 Are Garrett Wilson and Breece Hall every-week starters in fantasy land despite, you know?

Pretty much! While the Zach Wilson experience has certainly presented more downs than ups for Garrett, the Jets have made a concerted effort all season long to force-feed him the football. Overall, Wilson is the WR8 in expected PPR points per game and trails only A.J. Brown (32.8% vs. 31.6%) when it comes to raw target share.

Sadly, this volume hasn’t been enough to help Wilson crack the position’s top-24 PPR scorers on a per-game basis. The WR26 sandwiched between Courtland Sutton and Jakobi Meyers, Wilson has been far more of an upside WR3 than a “must start” WR2 this season – and that doesn’t change ahead of a TOUGH matchup with Dolphins corners Jalen Ramsey and Xavien Howard.

Don’t get it twisted: Wilson should remain in far more fantasy lineups than not, but DeAndre Hopkins (7-124-1), Davante Adams (7-82-1) and Curtis Samuel (4-65-0) are the only WRs who have managed to clear even 50 receiving yards against this Dolphins defense since they got Ramsey back in Week 8. As Wilson’s own 7-44-1 performance against this group back in Week 12 can attest: Not much comes easy against this Vic Fangio-led defense.

And then there’s Hall, who quietly finds himself near the top of the leaderboard regarding the league’s most productive fantasy backs when only considering receiving production:

1. Christian McCaffrey (125.7 PPR points per game from receiving)

2. Breece Hall (113.5)

3. Alvin Kamara (109.2)

4. Rachaad White (101.9)

5. James Cook (95.1)

And it’s a good thing that receiving production has been so prevalent: Hall has gone seven consecutive games with 50 or fewer scoreless yards on the ground. The second-year talent has largely maintained his top-16 fantasy standing thanks to nothing more than sweet, sweet pass-game volume.

Look no further than the last time these two teams matched up for an example of how Hall can save an otherwise lackluster day with a high target share (7-24-0 receiving).

Fire him up as the mid-range RB2 he’s functioned as for the better part of the season; he’s higher in the Fantasy Life consensus ranks than guys like James Cook, Javonte Williams, Ezekiel Elliott and D’Andre Swift among others.

🧀 Can Jayden Reed be trusted as a legit WR2 in this smash spot?

The rookie has certainly managed to provide some consistent fantasy excellence over his last five games:

• Week 10: 5-84-1 receiving, 0-0-0 rushing, PPR WR12

• Week 11: 4-46-0, 3-46-1, WR11

• Week 12: 4-34-1, 2-16-0, WR25

• Week 13: 4-16-0, 0-0-0, WR50

• Week 14: 8-27-0, 4-38-1, WR6

Fun fact: Reed has averaged an NFL-high 10.8 yards per carry among all players with at least … 10 carries this season. Yes, it’s a small sample size. Also, yes, credit to the rookie for making defenses pay all over the field.

Don’t you dare compare Reed to Deebo Samuel – but this explosive slot-maven possesses enough rushing upside to at least warrant “Gen Z Randall Cobb” consideration.

While this Buccaneer's defense has gotten slightly healthier in recent weeks, they remained without difference-making CB Jamel Dean (ankle/foot), LB Devin White (foot), and DT Vita Vea (toe) in Week 14. Only the Eagles, Commanders, and Giants have allowed more PPR points per game to opposing WRs than the Bucs – and they’ve been particularly brutal against slot receivers all year long:

Tampa Bay vs. WRs aligned from the slot:

• Yards per attempt: 9.9 (30th)

• Explosive pass play rate: 21% (26th)

• Passer rating: 108.9 (27th)

• Contested target rate: 10% (30th)

Reed is a Fantasy Life consensus top-30 WR ahead of guys like Terry McLaurin, Diontae Johnson, and Tee Higgins, among others. Romeo Doubs also warrants the benefit of the doubt in closer FLEX start/sit decisions, with the Packers being forced to condense their passing attack as long as Christian Watson (hamstring) and even Dontayvion Wicks (ankle) remain sidelined.

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The most star-studded matchup of Week 15 features some of football’s biggest real-life and fantasy stars. From Josh Allen and Dak Prescott to Stefon Diggs and CeeDee Lamb: There’s a reason why this is one of just two contests with a game total north of 50 points this week. A matchup of this caliber deserves a big-time breakdown — and Chris is just the man for the task.

Presenting, Fantasy Life’s Matchup of the Week: Cowboys at Bills.

At least for me, during all of the real-time hoopla of Kansas City turning the ball over on downs, Sean McDermott’s reaction was the best.

Most left Buffalo for dead, McDermott’s ‘motivational speech’ over the bye week only added to the chaos, and a loss to Kansas City looked inevitable. So, you do, in fact, gotta hand it to them. But I doubt it was just the Bills’ HC breathing a sigh of relief on Sunday. It was (mostly) all of us.

Meaningful January football without Josh Allen is a dreary notion. We’ve already lost so many good starters that keeping a healthy one out would’ve felt like madness. But he’s still got a shot, even with another MVP candidate coming to town. So, let’s break down both squads from a fantasy perspective in Week 15’s matchup of the week.

🦬 Bills Week 15 Outlook

For Buffalo, the offensive game plan coming out of the bye was clear: Josh Allen must be Superman.

Sunday’s bout against the Chiefs was his fourth time over 40 passing attempts and the fifth time Allen’s dropback over expectation rate hit or exceeded 10%. However, most have struggled to find a weakness in the Cowboy’s ability to stop the run or pass.

Plus, for the Bills’ offense, it’s not just the matchup that’s the issue — it’s the volume.

Yes, I know I just said Allen has been slinging the ball all over the place. Dude has attempted 93 passes in the last three weeks. My shoulder hurts just typing that stat. Regardless, our problem is how Allen is distributing his targets. And, more specifically, how he’s distributing them to his TEs.

Luckily, Buffalo used 12-personnel on 29% of their plays, allowing Dalton Kincaid and Dawson Knox to co-exist from a route-rate perspective. The rookie TE had an 82.3% route rate with Knox out and Kincaid was getting his cardio in on 87.5% of Allen’s dropbacks with Knox back. But Allen can only throw the ball to one of them. And Knox earned just enough to move Kincaid back to the low-end TE1 tier.

Kincaid ran the most red-zone routes (10 to 5) and got the only targets when the team got into scoring position. Plus, the freshman was Allen’s preferred target when under pressure compared to any other Bills’ pass-catcher (43.8% target share). It will take a TD for Kincaid to pay off, but the situational volume will be there for him in Week 15.

#LOVEHATE is upon us, and Matthew Berry is here to take you through the Week 15 NFL slate!

🚀 Seemingly every year there’s a rookie WR who BOOMS down the stretch. I don’t like it, I love it.

🌟 Football is simply better when stars are healthy. Good news for the Steelers and Vikings.

✈️ Is Zach Wilson instilling…HOPE? Let’s find out.

📈 A nearly unstoppable offense in a smash spot yet again. Fire them up.

🐏 A matchup so good it’s hard to fade the chalk. Vintage Stafford game incoming?

😬 Back-to-back DNPs to start a week are never good. Hope you already secured that first-round bye.

✍️ Who said draft season is over? How to dominate playoff best ball with the best.

💰 There could be a new highest-paid NFL QB sooner rather than later. $60 million per year?!

⛈️ Sometimes, Mother Nature can be your biggest adversary. Check those Miami forecasts on Sunday morning!

💩 A movement can capture the imagination of an entire country. Your move, New York Times.

Gambling on football is simply a fun time. Hopes and dreams culminate in a sweat, and hey, sometimes you even end up winning some money!

That’s all Geoff is trying to accomplish here today: Answer your hopes and dreams with the BEST bets he’s got ahead of Week 15. Let’s (Drew) lock in some winners.

🐻 Bears +3.0 (-105, BetMGM)

• Play to: +3.0 (-120)

This line has moved down from +3.5 but I’d suggest there is good value in taking Chicago at +3.0. The Browns are in a tough spot from an injury perspective as they’ve just placed two OL on injured reserve, including standout rookie Dawand Jones (not to mention their defense).

Since adding Montez Sweat the Bears are now 6th in defensive EPA (per The Action Network). They also held a top 10 offense in the Lions to under 6.75 yards per pass attempt twice in the last four weeks – and have nine INTs over their last three games. 

The Browns have been a solid team under Kevin Stefanski (for the most part) but are also just 14-20 ATS as favorites since he took over as head coach.  

When you add in a motivated Justin Fields, who is playing for his future down the stretch, this looks like another great spot to jump on Chicago, who have now covered in three straight games. 

🐏 Rams -6.5 (-110, BetMGM)

• Play to: -7.0 (-110)

The Rams featured in this article last week (at +7.5 against the Ravens) and didn’t disappoint, taking an upper-echelon team in the Ravens to the limit in a 37-31 OT loss. 

This week, they head home to face the Commanders, who are 32nd in defensive EPA. They’ll face a fully healthy Rams offense that is now ninth in EPA per play on offense and sixth in EPA per rush. Given the Rams are also at home, it could be argued that this kind of mismatch is deserving of more than a TD on the spread. 

The Commanders have the rest advantage, but Ron Rivera's teams, for his career, are just 5-10 ATS off a bye.

It’s worth noting as well that Washington has lost nine games this season already, and seven of those losses have come by 7 points or more. The Rams have also been profitable as favorites this year bettors (suggesting they have been undervalued in these kinds of spots) going 4-2 ATS as favorites in 2023. 

🐦 Kyler Murray over 206.5 passing yards (-115, BetMGM)

• Play to: 209.5  (-110)

• Projection: 211.5

Murray only threw the ball 23 times for 145 yards in his last start, but they were on the road in that game and facing a tough Steelers front. They were also missing WR Michael Wilson – and had Marquise Brown (heel) and Trey McBride (groin) playing through injuries. All three of those players may suit up and are likely to be healthier in Week 15. 

Teams facing the 49ers this year are averaging 38.1 pass attempts per game, the third-highest mark in the league. Lately, the 49ers secondary has only been average, as well, and last week ceded 7.1 yards per attempt and a 71% completion rate to backup Drew Lock (now do you get the joke from the intro?).

Ultimately, backing Murray for a decent passing day seems like the right move. Arizona should have a healthier complement of receivers and Murray is also likely to have lots of up-tempo situations to work with – much as Joshua Dobbs (265 passing yards against SF in Week 4) did in the first meeting between these two teams.