🔑 KEY answers to Week 17's biggest questions

So apparently, Joe Flacco is the best QB alive…

In today’s Fantasy Life Newsletter presented by BetMGM:

Football has a way of humbling even the smartest fans.

You can study film and grind news all you want, but sometimes soon-to-be 39-year-old QB Joe Flacco simply becomes the league’s most prolific passer because that’s just the way this wonderful sport works.

Overall, Flacco threw for 309 yards, and a trio of scores against what was previously the league's second-ranked defense in both pass yards and TDs allowed. He’s now thrown for 13 TDs with the Browns — his most ever over a five-game stretch.

THIS ISN’T NORMAL.

The Jets have made some of the game’s very best signal-callers look very ordinary on their way to boasting arguably the game’s single-best secondary, but there’s apparently one man simply too elite for any of the NFL’s mere mortals to contain.

The likes of TE David Njoku (6-134-0), WR Elijah Moore (5-61-1) and RB Jerome Ford (121 total yards, 2 TD) were the main characters inside of a Browns’ offense missing Week 16 superstar Amari Cooper (heel), while Breece Hall (13-84-0 rushing, 9-42-1 receiving) was largely the only man to write home about on the Jets side of the ball.

Kudos to both teams for racking up 51 combined points during an electric opening 30 minutes. It was one helluva sendoff to Thursday night football for the 2023 season. I guess we’ll just … chill on Thursdays for the next eight months?

Ugh — MOVING ON.

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Fantasy football discourse lives on questions. Who should I start or sit? Why the hell is Bijan Robinson not on the field? When will I forgive myself for drafting way too much Jerry Jeudy last August?

While the possibilities are endless, Ian has narrowed things down to his 10 biggest questions ahead of Week 17 along with a bunch of other cool stuff that he happened to stumble upon throughout the week. As a wise man once said: It’s a great day to be great.

🏆 Can Lamar Jackson (again) do his best Superman impression vs. the Dolphins?

Last Monday night’s electric primetime performance was certainly a good warmup. The league’s new frontrunner for MVP, Jackson has spearheaded the game’s fourth-ranked scoring offense all season long with his patented blend of elite athleticism and arm talent.

Seriously: What the f*ck is a defense supposed to do about this?

Jackson (20.1) joins Josh Allen (24.2), Jalen Hurts (23.3), and Dak Prescott (20.3) as the NFL’s only four QBs averaging north of 20 fantasy points per game this season. He remains one-of-one in the rushing department, while the loss of Mark Andrews (ankle, IR) hasn’t slowed down this new-and-improved Todd Monken-led passing attack.

Just one problem: This Dolphins defense has turned out to be good. Like, really good. Like, the best defense in the league since getting stud CB Jalen Ramsey back in Week 8 good:

• EPA allowed per play: -0.181 (No. 1)

• Scoring drive allowed percentage: 22.5% (No. 1)

• Yards allowed per play: 4.4 (No. 2)

• Yards allowed per pass: 6.1 (No. 5)

• Yards allowed per rush: 3.5 (No. 3)

• Success rate allowed: 29.8% (No. 5)

The schedule during this stretch has certainly helped matters, but kudos to the Dolphins for rising to the occasion in their two tough matchups vs. the Chiefs (14 points, 267 total yards allowed) and, most recently, the Cowboys (20, 339).

You don’t need more than a few fingers to count the number of QBs who should be starting ahead of Jackson this week; just realize both defenses are quite a bit better than they were last season … when these offenses combined for 80 points and 1,020 total yards.

This doesn’t mean getting that popcorn ready is a bad idea, but perhaps consider reigning in shootout expectations just a tad in a matchup featuring a game total of “just” 47 points.

🤔 Is it time to bench Stefon Diggs in fantasy land?

No.

The veteran receiver still very much looks like his usual explosive self; the problem centers around the reality that this offense has either faced a very tough matchup OR completely abandoned the passing game since switching to new OC Joe Brady.

Pure opportunity doesn’t earn fantasy points in the year 2023 (thanks, Biden), but Diggs has remained the overwhelming leader of the clubhouse over these past five games: Nobody on the Bills has come close to the 30-year-old’s 29.7% target share.

Up next is a Bill Belichick-led defense that famously is the only group in the league that gameplans to take away the opposing offense’s No. 1 option. This “fact” makes it curious that Diggs has ripped off 6-58-1, 7-104-1, 7-92-1 and 7-85-1 performances in his last four regular-season meetings with this group. Hm.

Don’t let yesterday’s painful fantasy performance overly dictate what we should expect in today’s start/sit decision.

Diggs remains a top-15 option at the position and recommended start thanks to the reality that he’s very good at football and the clear-cut No. 1 pass-game option inside this USUALLY prolific Josh Allen-led attack.

#LOVEHATE for Week 17 is upon us, and Matthew Berry is here with a SPECIAL birthday edition of Love Hate for the Week 17 slate. From the entire Fantasy Life community, happy birthday, Matthew!

📊 Could this be Chris Olave’s signature game of the season? Week 17 rankings and tiers.

⚔️ The Lamar Jackson MVP campaign has a date with the Dolphins. The best Week 17 matchups.

🍿 Ja’Marr Chase has some fighting words for the Chiefs secondary. Get your popcorn ready for this one.

👀 We’re up over 78 units in the Pick’em tracker this season and guess what? Geoff just dropped his Week 17 picks.

🚀 One of the game’s most exciting young QBs is BACK, baby. Thank you Injury Gods.

💎 Don’t be afraid to scroll down the draft board. This week’s hidden gems.

✍️ When they zig, you zag. DFS tournament pivots for Week 17.

🐬 The Dolphins are expected to be without one of their best playmakers. Take my eyes but not his ankle.

🎠 The Vikings are making ANOTHER change under center. Bright side: Joe Barry’s defense is up next.

🤣 Sometimes the internet is simply hilarious. Eric Ebron catching strays.

😟 The Seahawks are hurt, dog. Not the RB or WR you want to see missing practice.

Nonstop fireworks were produced last time these AFC powerhouses met. 80 combined points, 1,020 total yards, endless highlights — and suddenly the encore features the top-two teams in the conference battling it out for a No. 1 seed and accordingly that coveted first-round bye. It’s safe to say this is one of THE most important matchups of the 2023 regular season.

Don’t panic, Chris Allen is here to present Fantasy Life’s matchup of the week: The Miami Dolphins at the Baltimore Ravens.

OK, I’m trying to thread a needle here.

On the one hand, I want Lamar Jackson to win the MVP.

If you’re looking for a pro-Lamar statistical argument from me, you won’t find it here. He’s top 10 in every metric you’ll usually see me cite for QB eval. Again, top 10. Not first or behind a couple other high-end passers. Well, except for rushing.

Regardless, his control over this offense in its first season, through injuries and tough defenses, has been remarkable. So, Baltimore getting another W works for me. 

However, I also want to see Tyreek Hill get to 2,000 receiving yards.

He’s 359 yards away with two games left. Because math, he’d need at least 180 to get back on track.

Typically, if a WR gets to that mark, his team is winning. Actually, the only time this season that hasn’t worked is when CeeDee Lamb did it in Week 9 against the Eagles. The other eight times were all wins. So, Hill posting nearly two bills as a receiver also works.

Like I said, I’m trying to thread a needle here. But it could happen. Let’s start with Hill’s (and the rest of Miami’s) prospects against the Ravens.

🐬 Dolphins Week 17 Outlook

In Week 15, Mike McDaniel and Tua Tagovailoa emphasized the team’s ability to thrive even without Hill. Granted, it was against the Jets. And the defense pitched a shutout. But really, the only effect the lopsided game had on Miami’s offensive approach was their total play volume.

With their contest against the Cowboys coming down to the wire, Tua’s dropback rate jumped, but his dropbacks relative to expectation remained the same. Baltimore’s offense will likely set up a similar script. However, injuries to the Dolphins’ pass-catching corps might change things.

De’Von Achane was on the field for 35 snaps, which translated into just eight touches. The three-card-Monte rotation Miami’s running at RB can be maddening. With Mostert getting the green-zone work and Jeff Wilson short-yardage totes, Achane’s overall usage is hard to project. But his receiving work might not be.

The rookie rusher ran one route in the first quarter of Week 16. He ran 24 over the remaining three quarters with Waddle on and off the field. Tua only targeted Achane (3 times) and Mostert (1) out of the backfield, which at least cements Achane as the RB2 of the trio. But the freshman wasn’t a safety valve or check-down option.

The offense was trying to create explosives with him downfield. Achane’s 6.7 air yards per target were the fourth-highest on the squad. Combined with a 20.6% slot rate, Achane’s floor and ceiling potential tick up with Waddle injured. Plus, his archetype has given the Ravens trouble in the past.

• Jahmyr Gibbs: 11 carries-68 yards-1 TD (rushing stat line), 10 receptions-58 yards-0 TD (receiving stat line)

• Joe Mixon: 16-69-0, 5-31-1

• Christian McCaffrey: 14-103-1, 10-28-0

• Zack Moss: 30-122-0, 3-23-1

Since returning in Week 13, Achane has been the more efficient runner (higher EPA per rush, forced missed tackle rate, and adjusted yards after contact per rush) with more targets.

But, of course, Mostert’s red-zone role (100.0% of the carries from inside the five over the last three weeks) makes him the preferred RB.

Regardless, it’s a Detroit-like situation with Achane in the Gibbs’ role with one fewer passing option for Tua this weekend.

Sometimes you just have a feeling about a certain bet. Maybe it’s the team, could be the situation, hell, sometimes even Mother Nature is the deciding factor: Every now and then something just feels RIGHT.

While he can’t guarantee a 100% win rate, Geoff has made it his life mission to at least try — and the man accordingly has some b-e-a-utiful best bets ahead of Week 17 that you simply need to see to believe.

🐱 Panthers +6.5 (-110, BetMGM)

• Play to: +6.0 (-110)

The Jaguars are hurting. They’ve already lost a main catalyst on offense in Christian Kirk, didn’t have Zay Jones (questionable) last week, and potentially may not have Trevor Lawrence (shoulder/knee) for this game either. 

Lawrence sprained his shoulder last week and for the second time in four weeks wasn’t able to finish the game. Over the last four Jaguar games, he’s endured a shoulder sprain, knee sprain, and a concussion. 

Even if he does play there is no chance he’ll be operating at 100% and it’s worth noting that he has played some brutal football of late. He’s completed just 57% of his passes and thrown for five INTs and six yards per attempt over his last three games.

This number has the potential to move on any Lawrence news (it will likely get much shorter if he gets ruled out) but I like jumping on Carolina at the current number, regardless.

Jacksonville is regressing fast and the Panthers (who have covered in two straight games) have no reason to tank in this spot. 

👀 Commanders +13 (-110, BetMGM) 

• Play to: +12.5 (-110)

If betting on the Panthers wasn’t gross enough for you, may I recommend another NFC bottom-feeder in the Commanders?

Washington announced they are moving to Jacoby Brissett at QB this week and he should represent at least a small upgrade for their offense. 

Brissett also may be catching the 49ers in a good spot. San Francisco ended the game last week with three O-Linemen and rookie S Ji’Ayir Brown on the injury report. Brock Purdy (stinger) looks to be OK but he’s endured big hits two weeks in a row now and may be less than 100%. 

This is also a terrible spot from a rest perspective. The 49ers played late on Monday Night and now have to travel across the country (and multiple time zones) for an early Sunday start.

Per The Action Network, teams have been in this spot 23 times over the last 20 years (short rest and traveling cross country for their next game) and are 8-14-1 ATS (36.4%).

Washington are no world beaters but they are 6-4-1 ATS as underdogs this year and in a good spot to keep this game close. 

📈 Jacoby Brissett over 230.5 passing yards (-115, BetMGM)

• Projection: 232.4

• Play to: 234.5 (-110)

Brissett finished the last two games for the Commanders and his line over those two appearances reads as follows: 9.73 yards per attempt (23 attempts) – 78% completion rate – three TDs (vs. no INTs). 

The 49ers aren’t a poor matchup either. They are dealing with multiple key injuries on defense including starting S Ji'Ayir Brown and starting CB Ambry Thomas. Teams facing the 49ers are also averaging a healthy 37.1 pass attempts per game this season. 

Between Weeks 4 to 12 Sam Howell went over this total in eight of nine games and attempted 35 or more passes in five of those nine games.  Given that we have Brissett as a small upgrade in our QB-Spread Value Chart on Fantasy Life, it’s not crazy to think that he can match or exceed Howell’s production from that run – and fly over this smaller total in Week 17.