Since whiffing on player calls remains inevitable and par for the course, how we respond to adversity defines us as fantasy players. I’ve heard countless GMs swear off players after getting burned—but I disagree with the sentiment. It’s not personal, it’s strictly business. What I mean to say is that outcomes from year X are not necessarily predictive of year Y.

What if you weren’t wrong, just early?

In case you’re wondering, yes, I have my white whale (or should I say red) to deal with. After Tyreek Hill departed Kansas City for sunny Miami, the hunt for his direct replacement commenced. Simple plan: nail the next big playmaker in Mahomes’ offense and the titles would just roll in.

Two years ago, l chased the explosive Kadarius Toney breakout that never was. Then, for an encore, I followed it up last year with the Skyy Moore sophomore season faceplant. Oof.

Is any of that stopping me from drafting Xavier Worthy at ADP (ESPN: 116.7)? Heck no. If the definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over while expecting a different result, then call me crazy.

Just when I thought I was out…

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What else is in today’s newsletter?

1. The Broncos? Really, Pete?

2. Watercooler: Fantasy Football ADP Risers and Fallers

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I Think The 2024 Denver Broncos Might Break Me

• By Peter Overzet

Sure, I've played fantasy for a couple of decades. I understand variance and range of outcomes. I try not to get emotional while partaking in a fake game about a game.

And yet … I am pre-tilting what Sean Payton and this Denver Broncos offense is going to do to my emotional health this year. 

You might be thinking this is about me being a Denver Broncos fan. That, coincidentally, used to be the case. I grew up in Denver during the 1990s when John Elway led our city to its first two Super Bowl victories. I would mimic the "mile-high salute" after TDs on the playground. I bought some Ed McCaffrey-branded Cheerios. I got Neil Smith's autograph at a local car dealership. You get the gist.

But my investment in the Broncos in 2024 isn't about rooting for laundry. I only care about my fantasy teams now. In fact, I felt nothing when the Broncos won their third Super Bowl in 2016. Fantasy ruined traditional fandom for me.

Instead, this is about a literal investment and where I've put my cold hard cash on the line in hundreds of best ball drafts this summer. This is why I'm worried:

Let me try to explain how we arrived at this horrifying screenshot and why I'm terrified about how this is going to end for me as I play Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde with my fantasy brain and my emotions…

The hook: This offense is cheap

The reason I have so much of the Broncos in drafts this year is solely because of the price. Courtland Sutton is the only Broncos player going in the Top 100 picks of Underdog drafts. The presumed RB1, Javonte Williams, is available in Round 9. And two exciting young WRs, Troy Franklin and Marvin Mims, are completely free. 

The reason to make a concentrated bet on an offense like this is to enjoy the windfall of a surprise breakout offense. The Houston Texans offense was similarly cheap last year. The entire market thought they'd be a bottom-5 team and that C.J. Stroud wasn't good. But the market was wrong, very wrong. Savvy drafters who built out a big bet on a cheap offense were rewarded with a handful of league-winning selections—Stroud, Nico Collins, Tank Dell, Devin Singletary, and Dalton Schultz. 

The catch: But they might be really bad

Let's be honest, Bo Nix is probably not the next Stroud. The Broncos are expected to suck in 2024. Vegas totals imply that they’ll be the third-lowest scoring offense in the NFL. The elite coach halo surrounding Sean Payton grows more and more dim by the day.

And after watching Payton defer to veterans like Samaje Perine and Tim Patrick in the team's first preseason game, I'm terrified my breakout thesis could be dead on arrival.

RELATED CONTENT:

• A deep dive into 2024 draft strategy. Ian Hartitz has you covered.

• Make sure your leaguemates feel your wrath. Punishment ideas for the upcoming season.

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