📣 JK Dobbins Goes Off On Reporter

Can we trust him??

Not a good day to be a fake a** doctor...

In today’s Fantasy Life Newsletter:

  • Is JK Dobbins going to be ready for Week 1?

  • Cuffing Szn: The case for Isaiah Spiller

  • Uh oh, Leonard Fournette has been chowing down

  • My guys: Eliot's Top 3 most drafted players

  • Team preview: Pittsburgh Steelers

  • It’s 7/19. Take it away, Peter Overzet…

JK Dobbins is pissed.

Yesterday Ian Rapoport reported that Dobbins was "no sure thing for Week 1" and that the Ravens have "no incentive to rush him back."

Dobbins, however, was not too pleased about this report and clapped back on Twitter:

Dobbins later went on to post a series of tweets calling out the haters, doubters, and even "fake ass doctors" questioning his return to full health:

Outside of the Twitter beefing which is certainly fun to observe, the real takeaways from this report are that Dobbins has not suffered any setbacks and should be ready early in the season, even if it's not Week 1.

It'll be interesting to see which report wins out as far as influencing Dobbins' ADP—the Rapoport FUD or JK's optimism.

With Gus Edwards also returning from a torn ACL, the Ravens could be looking at veteran Mike Davis and rookie Tyler Badie as the only healthy options in the backfield come Week 1.

Cuffing Szn Header

Our best ball thought leader Jonathan shares a backup RB he loves to draft...

Chargers’ rookie RB Isaiah Spiller should be treated as a premium handcuff in drafts despite never having played a snap in the NFL.

LAC projects to be one of the best offenses in the league this year and we saw just how valuable the top RB in this system can be with the monstrous production that Austin Ekeler posted last season.

Looking forward, there are two key reasons why you should prioritize adding Spiller to your fantasy teams this year...

Isaiah Spiller Cuff Szn

1. Massive contingent value

Spiller has the chance to be a Top 15 RB if Ekeler misses time. In recent years, the Chargers’ second RB has been a rotating cast of players who have mostly fallen flat when given an opportunity.

Spiller has the size (6’0” 217 lbs) and pass-catching chops (74 receptions in college) to be a true three-down workhorse in the event of an Ekeler injury. He was ultra-productive in college and has minimal competition for the touches behind Ekeler.

In 2020 when Ekeler missed time, the other RBs on this team received 250+ carries on the season, but the workload was split across three players who were all relatively inefficient. If Spiller sees anything close to that type of volume he will be a league winner.

2. Garbage time potential 

Not only is the Chargers offense elite, but their defense looks like it should be a dominant unit as well. I expect LAC to have a big lead in the second half of games often. If that’s the case, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Spiller get double digit carries, including goal line work, as they grind out the clock in those contests.

This means that in certain matchups Spiller should be a flex-worthy play even with Ekeler healthy. This is ideal because it makes it much easier to hold Spiller on the end of your roster when compared to other handcuffs who only have the contingent value upside case.

Fantasy Watercooler

🍬 Leonard Fournette weighs how much?? The coaches aren't happy about his weight gain.

🐴 What can Matt Ryan do for the Colts? The guys over at Fantasy Points got the lowdown.

🏆 The most consistent WRs. Get you a WR who produces all season long.

⚖️ Wait, now Deshaun Watson wants to sue the NFL? This is such a mess.

📰 Top 50 Fantasy Football Storylines Heading Into NFL Training Camp. Hayden Winks catches you up to speed.

🤑 A new $1 million prize pool tournament. Mark your calendars for August 1.

Hot Best Ball Summer

We can tell you which players we like, but it's better if we put our money where our mouth's are. Below our CEO, Eliot Crist, shares the players he’s selected the most so far on Underdog and why he can’t stop clicking on them in drafts.

On my way to maxing out Best Ball Mania III in my quest to take home the two million dollar top prize, I have been consistently looking for undervalued players in top offenses. Guys who I think have a path to smash the value of their current ADP.

Eliot Crist Most Drafted

Kendrick Bourne (ADP: 187.8 Eliot’s exposure 23.9%)

While some may not think of the New England Patriots as a top offense in football, last season, they scored 26.6 points per game, the seventh most in football. Rookie Quarterback Mac Jones showed he was the real deal, leading all rookies with a 67.6% completion percentage and a 92.5 passer rating, as he looks to take a leap in year two.

As the starting slot receiver for the Patriots, Kendrick Bourne has a chance to develop alongside Jones in a role that has produced fantasy superstars like Julian Edelman and Wes Welker.

Bourne is extremely efficient when lined up inside. He leads the league in passer rating when targeted in the slot since 2020. To take it one step further, Bourne finished top two in:

1️⃣138.1 QB Rating Per Target

2️⃣2.58 Fantasy Points Per Target

2️⃣11.4 Yards Per Target

Bourne was quietly the Patriots best receiver last year, having more yards from scrimmage (925) than Jakobi Meyers (875) on 47 fewer targets - with an uptick in volume, Bourne has a chance to be a league-winning fantasy pick.

Jamison Crowder (ADP: 138.2 Eliot’s exposure 21.1%)

Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills have a chance to be the league's top offense this year after finishing third in points last season. The offense was unstoppable in the last three games of the season, scoring 36.7 points per game, the highest scoring average in the league.

While most people will flock to the most polarizing player in fantasy, Gabriel Davis, I’m looking to get Bills’ exposure with Jamison Crowder, whose ADP of 137.8 is more than 20 spots lower than his next closest teammate.

Crowder is set to take over the Cole Beasley role, which has seen 100+ targets for three straight seasons, always performing as a top 40 receiver. As WR63 off the board, Crowder is a screaming value.

Tim Patrick (ADP: 117 Eliot’s exposure 19.7%)

Over is the Drew Lock era, and in steps Mr. Unlimited, Russell Wilson. The Broncos played a slow, ball-control style offense last year, but that should change with Wilson and new HC Nathaniel Hackett in town.

Broncos offensive lineman Quinn Meinerz said the offense “is going to be predicated on speed”

While Wilson’s presence has shot Jerry Jeudy and Courtland Sutton up draft boards, Patrick continues to fly under the radar as WR53 off the board on Underdog Fantasy.

One person who was not sleeping on Patrick this offseason is Broncos general manager George Patton, who signed Patrick to a three-year 30 million dollar extension.

When you dive into the numbers, you see Patrick performed very similarly to Sutton, while being the more efficient player, but goes 80 picks later. He is my favorite way to get cheap exposure to what could become one of the league's best offenses.

Join us on Underdog! first-time depositors get up to a $100 deposit match with promo code LIFE:

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The season is fast approaching, which means it is time for us to get to know all of these NFL teams and who we should be drafting and fading after a busy offseason. In today's team preview, Geoff previews the Pittsburgh Steelers...

Is it Trubisky season in Steel Town?

The Steelers will be starting the year without Ben Roethlisberger at QB for the first time since 2004. Roethlisberger had turned into a statuesque pocket passer in his final two seasons, who averaged 2.26 seconds per release in 2021 – the fastest in the league. It led to tons of volume for Dionate Johnson and Najee Harris, but few explosive plays.

While there’s still optimism around Kenny Pickett potentially being their quarterback of the future, right now most view Mitchell Trubisky as having the upper hand for the starting job. This is a fluid situation though and Trubisky’s history means it’s possible he coughs up this early lead.

As of now, MGM has the Steelers slated with an over/under of 7.5 wins but with the longest odds to win the division at +900.

Steelers Team Preview

⚙️ Offseason changes

  • Retired - QB Ben Roethlisberger

  • Drafted - WR George Pickens 52nd overall

  • Drafted - QB Kenny Pickett 20th overall

  • Signed - QB Mitchell Trubisky

✨ Team vibes

Everyone is assuming the change at QB will lead to a more stagnant offense and take away the potential for big seasons for Pittsburgh’s studs at WR and RB. QB play will likely limit their overall team potential in 2022 (just like it did in 2021), but I’m not sure it will lead to drastic production declines, especially at WR.

Pittsburgh ranked third to last in explosive pass rate in 2021, while also ranking fifth-worst in yards per play. It’s fun to beat up on Trubisky because he does have a solid highlight reel of boneheaded plays, but he’s also had extended runs of high-end fantasy production. The final six games of 2020 saw him average 20.0 fantasy points and, as a backup in redrafts or third man in for best ball drafts (at QB), it feels like you could do a lot worse than Trubisky, who is essentially going for free at the end of drafts.

Trubisky helped Allen Robinson to a WR8 finish in 2019, despite averaging just 6.1 yards per attempt that year (last in the league). This is good news for Johnson, who finished as WR8 last season in full PPR leagues. The market is down on Johnson as he’s going around WR21 right now on Underdog Fantasy, but considering Trubisky’s history in Chicago, I wouldn’t be shocked if Johnson’s target share stayed somewhat neutral in 2022, while potentially even getting a bump in aDOT.

I would be slightly shocked if Najee approaches 381 touches again. Trubisky averaged well over 4.0 yards per rush in two of his last three seasons in Chicago and seems unlikely to dump the ball off as much as Roethlisberger, who famously targeted Harris 19 times in Week 3 last season. Harris’ current ADP has him ranked as a top five RB already so there’s almost no discount at his current valuation.

Overall, expect a somewhat conservative offense from Pittsburgh again, but also for the mobility and athleticism of Trubisky (and to an extent Pickett if he starts) to lead to a few more explosive plays.

🎯Draft targets

  • TDiontae Johnson (Underdog ADP 43.5, WR21)

  • WR Chase Claypool (Underdog ADP 104.4, WR50)

  • QB Mitchell Trubisky (Underdog ADP 214.3, QB31)

👋Draft fades

  • RB Najee Harris (Underdog ADP 10.6, RB6)

  • TE Pat Freiermuth (Underdog ADP 128.5, TE12)

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