It Can Always Get Worse

Chase Glory For The Next 5 Years

The accomplishments are already significant for Ja’Marr Chase. OROY in 2021, compiling 1,455 receiving yards and 13 TDs. Again, he was a rookie! An otherworldly 127-1,708-17 Triple Crown season in 2024. Last season, with QB Joe Burrow missing nine games, Chase still posted a solid 125-1,412-8. He’s 26 and that’s his floor production. You can lock him in for more big production the next five seasons, and likely beyond.

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Bounceback Seasons On Tap For Two Elite QBs?

Yeah, celebrating Cinco De Mayo with tacos and margaritas is cool, but have you ever read a breathtaking 1,433-word synopsis on the upcoming fantasy season's top-12 quarterbacks in Ian’s fantasy football rankings?!

As always: It's a great day to be great.

QB2: Lamar Jackson

• 2025 finish: QB16 in fantasy points per game

• 2026 ADP: QB2

Key Question: How concerning was Jackson's down year in 2025?

Jackson's ceiling might as well be the moon: The two-time MVP is responsible for two of the position's top-six highest-scoring single seasons … ever. However, 2025's QB16 finish in fantasy points per game featured the 29-year-old veteran averaging career-low marks in rushing yards (26.8) and attempts (5.2) per game. Hamstring, toe, knee, ankle and back injuries certainly didn't help matters; just realize QBs generally run less as they get older—it's possible Jackson's best years are in the rear-view mirror.

QB4: Jayden Daniels

• 2025 finish: QB17 in fantasy points per game

• 2026 ADP: QB4

Key Question: How rough was Daniels in 2025?

It wasn't great—Marcus Mariota largely outperformed Daniels in most relevant efficiency metrics, but at the same time, Daniels' lackluster numbers are skewed a bit by him (unfortunately) leaving early due to injury on three separate occasions. Overall, the 2024 Rookie of the Year managed to post top-10 per-game fantasy numbers during the first seven weeks of the season, and Daniels still joins Mike Vick, Justin Fields and Lamar Jackson as the only QBs in NFL history to average north of 40 career rushing yards per game. Even if Daniels struggles to replicate his 2024 real-life magic, fantasy fireworks are still expected thanks to his dual-threat playstyle.

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Dwain’s 2026 Fantasy Projections For The Rookie Class

With the NFL Draft behind us, it's time to analyze rookie outlooks using the Fantasy Life Projection Model. We will look at the floor, median and Xfinity best ceiling projections for top draft picks, as well as some players who landed in spots where they could play immediately.

Let’s dive in, starting with a pair of buzzy wideouts …

Jordyn Tyson Fantasy Projections (WR, Saints)

• Floor Projection: 9.2 | 11.4 PPG

• Median Projection: 10.3 | 12.8 PPG

• Xfinity Best Ceiling Projection: 12.3 | 15.0 PPG

With a lack of strong receiving options after Tyson and Chris Olave, the Saints' offense projects as one of the most consolidated passing attacks in the NFL. Tyson dominated every step of the way in college, demanding a career target share of 28% (77th percentile). I have him taking over the WR2 role from Day 1 with an 88% route participation rate and a 21% target share.   

The big question in New Orleans is whether Tyler Shough can support two strong fantasy WRs. Last year, in eight starts, he averaged 260 passing yards. But here is the good news: I have taken a more tempered approach for Shough's 2026 projection at 238 per game. The bad news: the Saints project 26th in offensive TDs per game at 2.0. So, the model is accounting for multiple concerns, but Tyson still projects well for a rookie.

Tyson projects for 78 receptions, 947 yards and 5.3 TDs. 

Takeaway: Tyson projects as a mid-range WR3 with WR2 upside. Tyson is the WR33 in half-PPR projections and is an early Round 6 pick in fantasy drafts.

Makai Lemon Fantasy Projections (WR, Eagles)

• Floor Projection: 7.6 | 9.3 PPG

• Median Projection: 8.7 | 10.5 PPG

• Xfinity Best Ceiling Projection: 11.1 | 13.1 PPG

Lemon's projections assume that a trade for A.J. Brown occurs. In that scenario, he projects as the WR2 with an 84% route participation rate and a 19% target share. The Round 1 NFL Draft pick forecasts as the No. 2 option behind DeVonta Smith. Most of his Rookie Super Model comparisons reached WR3 levels in their first three seasons. 

There are some questions regarding whether Lemon will play in two-WR sets or just from the slot, where he primarily aligned at USC. That is why I didn't give Lemon an 88-90% route participation rate like Tate and Tyson. The 84% represents a rotation with Dontayvion Wicks in two-WR personnel groups and a near full-time role in three-WR sets. This also accounts for a smidge more 12-personnel utilization (two TEs) after the addition of Eli Stowers in Round 2.

With Kevin Patullo out and Sean Mannion in, I am projecting slightly more passing from the Eagles, along with more motion and creative alignments. That bumps Jalen Hurts from 202 yards per game up to 215 (26th). The Eagles project for 2.6 offensive TDs per game (10th).

When you put it all together, Lemon projects for 59 receptions, 711 yards and 5.3 TDs receiving. These projections could be low, but historically, even DeVonta Smith has been a WR2 or WR3 in fantasy as the No. 2 option for the Eagles, and he is the No. 6 WR prospect all-time in the Rookie Super Model vs. Lemon at No. 23.

Takeaway: Lemon projects as a mid-range WR4 with high-end WR3 upside in Year 1. He is the WR44 in half-PPR projections. In early fantasy drafts on Underdog, he is an early Round 7 pick.

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Around The Watercooler

The latest fantasy and NFL gossip, news and memes from our merry band of football nerds …

❤️ A love letter to your home league. Cooterdoodle’s league has gone through WHAT?!

📝 Jordyn Tyson vs. Carnell Tate. Who should you draft in 2026?

😴 Did Kendall uncover 2026’s deep sleeper? He had 1,000 receiving yards … at Navy!

📈 Is James Cook a top-three RB?? If he gets passing-down work, watch out.

👀 The Ravens are planning to carry how many QBs? Is Lamar OK, lol?!

✏️ Here’s another interesting QB signing. Makes sense as the Malik Willis replacement.

🤔 How many WRs are you taking over AJB on the Patriots? It’s a short list.

A New Home For Fantasy Football Sickos

Do you find yourself wanting more when it comes to fantasy football analysis? More data, more rankings, more debate … with NO time limit?

Welcome to the new home of Talk Data To Me, now on a new channel, Fantasy (Is) Life.

Come subscribe to get all of Dwain’s latest episodes of TDTM, starting with the breakdown of his rookie rankings and tiers with Matthew Freedman, and stay to see just how low Fernando Mendoza ranks …