Inside Two Weeks Away

The NFL Draft is now less than two weeks away.

If you asked my wife, she'd tell you that the recent birth of our daughter was unquestionably the high point of 2026 for me … and she's right … right now … but ask her again immediately after Round 1, and she'll probably tell you:

1. She's never seen a man in his 40s so excited to talk about dudes in their 20s.

2. Even with a newborn, she's filing for divorce. 

I love the draft.

Specifically, I love doing mock drafts and betting on the draft.

As it happens, I have a two-round mock that was published this week, and the betting market has expanded significantly since I wrote my best draft props bets article a couple weeks ago.

For all of our draft coverage, check out our Fantasy Life NFL Draft Guide.

Looking at the market right now, and thinking about specifically through a mock- and fantasy-focused lens, here are three items that catch my eye.

The Top Six Chalk

These are the guys currently favored in the market to go in the top six.

• No. 1: Raiders—QB Fernando Mendoza (Indiana)

• No. 2: Jets—EDGE David Bailey (Texas Tech)

• No. 3: Cardinals—EDGE Arvell Reese (Ohio State)

• No. 4: Titans—RB Jeremiyah Love (Notre Dame)

• No. 5: Giants—LB Sonny Styles (Ohio State)

• No. 6: Browns—WR Carnell Tate (Ohio State)

If I were to create a new mock from scratch right now, this would likely be my top 6, and I expect this to be a chalky group in most mocks over the next 10 days—or at least until we get a national insider reporting something to the contrary.

Some of these player-to-team pairings are unsurprising. Mendoza to the Raiders has been chiseled in stone for months, and since the combine Love and Styles have looked like strong candidates for the top 5.

But Bailey and Reese at Nos. 2-3: That's new.

David Bailey vs. Arvell Reese

Not long ago, I posted a piece on the key draft questions for each team picking in the top 10.

Here's what I wrote about the Jets at No. 2.

I think the Jets are locked into EDGE here.

The question: Will they take Arvell Reese (Ohio State) or David Bailey (Texas Tech)?

Both guys last year were first-team All-Americans. Both were winners at the combine.

Reese is just 20 years old and still raw as an LB/EDGE hybrid.

Bailey was productive all through his four-year college career, and last season he had a nation-best 14.5 sacks along with 19.5 tackles for loss.

Potential vs. production. That's the question.

For months, Reese has been the frontrunner at No. 2.

But recently the four horsemen of the prospect apocalypse—Daniel Jeremiah, Peter Schrager, Todd McShay and Albert Breer—have all indicated that they're "hearing" Bailey will be the choice at No. 2.

I still have Reese as the No. 2 player on our Fantasy Life draft prospect big board.

I love his versatility, athleticism and youth. He's pure upside, and in a class that underwhelms just a smidge, I want to bet on a potential first-team All-Pro instead of a dude who might make a Pro Bowl.

Framed differently: Reese is the kind of player who comes around about once every half decade. But Bailey—there's a player like him (or close enough to him) in every class.

I can see the case for Bailey at No. 2. I understand it. And if I were GM Darren Mougey and HC Aaron Glenn, I might select Bailey, because as a less-volatile prospect he might give me a better chance to save my job.

But if I—Matthew Freedman, the No. 1 mocker in the known universe since 2020, and the dude who last year was No. 1 in big board accuracy—I'd probably take Reese. 

Alas, what I'll probably do in my next mock and what I'd do in a fantasy reality are probably different.

Speaking of "fantasy reality" …

Jordyn Tyson vs. Makai Lemon

In my recent piece on NFL Draft risers and fallers, I say this about WR Jordyn Tyson (Arizona State).

At the beginning of evaluation season, Tyson was neck-and-neck with Carnell Tate (Ohio State) to be the No. 1 WR in the class.

Now, Tyson is at risk of falling outside the top 20.

But as an analyst, I still see Tyson as a top-10 talent.

He has notable injury issues, but he was the No. 1 WR at Colorado as an 18-year-old true freshman. As a redshirt sophomore at Arizona State, he looked like one of the best WRs in the country (75-1,101-10 receiving, 12 games). 

And then last year he dominated (57-628-8 receiving, 2-4-1 rushing) for the first seven games before hamstring injuries sabotaged the rest of his campaign.

That said, in our 2026 Rookie Super Model, Tyson is the No. 3 WR behind Tate and Makai Lemon (USC). And on most big boards, Tyson is now behind both players.

Tate has concerns, but he seems highly likely to go in the top 10. Fine.

But Tyson vs. Lemon I think is far from certain. Tyson has good size (6-2, 203 pounds), he can line up across the formation and he wins at all three levels. Lemon is small (5-11, 192 pounds), slow (pro day 40-yard dash of 4.50-ish seconds) and limited to the slot.

In our dynasty rookie fantasy rankings, I still have Tyson ahead of Lemon … and with their odds to go Nos. 5-8 to the Giants, Browns, Commanders and Saints—all teams that could use a WR—the market has Tyson as the guy likelier to be drafted.

• No. 5: Giants—Tyson +1900 | Lemon +3500

• No. 6: Browns—Tyson +1300 | Lemon +3500

• No. 7: Commanders—Tyson +1400 | Lemon +1600

• No. 8: Saints—Tyson +850 | Lemon +900

And Tyson has the superior odds to go in the top 5 and top 10.

• Top 5: Tyson +1400 | Lemon +1500

• Top 10: Tyson +260 | Lemon +425

Most mock drafters, NFL decision makers and fantasy investors might like Lemon better. But right now the betting market still leans toward Tyson.