🤕 Injury Updates for Week 1

Where’s the setting to turn injuries off? Asking for a friend…

In today’s Fantasy Life Newsletter, presented by props.cash:

It feels like it was only a few days ago when the fantasy community was excited to see real football on their screens. Our rosters were set, trash-talk texts were sent to the league group chat, and a Week 1 dub felt like a lock.

Well, until reality kicked in, or rather, kicked us.

If TNF was any indication, working around players with an “O” or “Q” (heck, maybe even “IR”) next to their name was going to be the theme of the weekend. It’s part of the game. But we’re having to sift through beat reports right away.

Luckily, we knew about a couple of names to watch.

But, of course, Friday gave us clarity and confusion at the same time. With kickoff just a day away, here are three storylines we’re tracking before Sunday.

🧀 The Packers WRs

Christian Watson (hamstring) popped up on the injury report on Wednesday. His history, mixed with the mid-week announcement, had fantasy managers making other plans.

Romeo Doubs (hamstring) also missed practice the same day, raising some concerns about Jordan Love’s debut post-Rodgers.

But after yesterday, we have some idea of what to expect.

Watson’s efficiency (11th in YPRR last season) is irreplaceable. However, there’s a chance the remaining receiving corps can replicate his explosiveness.

Assuming Doubs goes, his preseason utilization indicates he’ll play outside.

Coincidentally, another oft-injured, speedy WR from Green Bay got the best of the Bears’ secondary last season.

When healthy, Doubs had the second-most downfield targets, and, at worst, a deep shot to the sophomore would keep Chicago on their toes. Plus, it gives some space to the better options in the offense.

Aaron Jones closed out ‘22 with top-15 marks in YPRR and YAC per reception, and Jones and AJ Dillon made the Top 12 in longest runs allowed by the Bears.

So Jones slots into the long list of RB2s, and Dillon gets bumped to a FLEX play. However, we’re all excited about the rookies.

Preseason notes from Dwain McFarland highlighted Luke Musgrave’s usage, and I had Jayden Reed as a priority Week 1 waiver target. Reed’s slot role and (likely) bump in looks from Love make the rookie receiver a viable fantasy play against the defense that allowed the sixth-most top-12 finishes to WRs last season.

Green Bay may be down their WR1, but I’m still optimistic they get the W in Week 1.

😰 Giants’ TE Darren Waller

Darren Waller was healthy all offseason. He made it through camp injury-free and got through the preseason unscathed.

So, of course, on Friday, we had to see his name come up on the Giants’ injury report.

On the one hand, fantasy managers have cause to panic. Waller’s dealt with similar ailments in the past, and he’s been sidelined for weeks as a result. His rise in ADP over the summer forced drafters to bypass a lot of high-end options in favor of the former Raider.

On the other hand, there’s some hope.

Over the last five seasons, no TE has earned a higher target share in a single season than Waller (2020-27.7%), and the Giants’ current personnel are eerily similar to what Waller had to compete with back in Vegas.

So it’s worth checking to see if late-round options like Gerald Everett or Greg Dulcich are still on your waiver wire. However, we may get some good news before Sunday.

📈 Commanders’ WR Terry McLaurin

Finally, some good news.

Practice reports earlier in the week showed Terry McLaurin running and cutting during the open session, indicating he’d be good to go against the Cardinals.

I expected a Q tag for the former Buckeye, but we got an even better status from the team.

Despite battling with Jahan Dotson for looks over their final eight games, McLaurin led the team in target share (24.5%) and efficiency (2.26 YPRR).

Now, he will face an Arizona defense that recently traded away one of its starters.

With McLaurin back on the field, it puts Sam Howell (aka Dwain’s doppelganger) back on the map as a potential streaming QB.

Other situations we’re watching:

• Kendre Miller (hamstring): DNP on Friday

• HC John Harbaugh says Rashod Bateman is good to go

• Rhamondre Stevenson (stomach): should be OK for Sunday

For more, be sure to check out Ian’s Injury Roundup to read up on all the latest, and we’ll also have all the latest waiting for you on Sunday morning.

Read on for players our rankers like that could help you fill your lineup spots affected by these injuries…

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Debating between two guys on your roster? Need someone to break the tie for you? Matthew Freedman, Dwain McFarland, and Ian Hartitiz dove deep into their rankings to find a few players they’re willing to push into their starting lineup for Week 1.

It’s Week 1 and we’re already dealing with injury situations ahead of Sunday’s kickoff.

Start/Sit decisions will be on everyone’s mind the next couple of days, but of course, the Fantasy Life crew has you covered.

Part of our rankings squad got together to find a few players they’re higher on than the consensus. With their analysis in hand, you should be able to roster these guys and take down your Week 1 matchup.

🐬 RB - Raheem Mostert (Dolphins) at Chargers

Mostert is 31 years old and unlikely to stay healthy for the entire campaign -- but he’s healthy this week, and No. 2 RB Jeff Wilson (midsection/finger, IR) isn’t.

Because of this, Mostert could see an expanded workload, especially since he should be fresh at the beginning of the season.

With 5.4 yards per carry for his career, he’s a playmaking back who can still produce (1,093 yards from scrimmage last year).

The Chargers in 2022 were No. 29 in defensive rush EPA (0.038), SR (44.8%), and DVOA (6.68%), and the Dolphins are 8-8 ML (29.8% ROI) and 10-5-1 ATS (25.9% ROI) as underdogs with QB Tua Tagovailoa.

- Freedman

🧀 RB - Aaron Jones (Packers) at Bears

The Packers kept Jones in bubble wrap this preseason because he is their best running back.

Yes, Dillon is going to get his carries, but there should be more than enough to go around in this matchup against Chicago.

The Bears gave up a walloping 158 yards and 1.8 TDs per game on the ground in 2022. They added Tremaine Edmonds at middle linebacker, but this is still a unit with big questions heading into Week 1.

The Packers won’t have Christian Watson (hamstring), and Romeo Doubs is questionable due to a knee injury. That could lead to extra opportunities for Jones, who is a proven commodity in the passing game.

Don’t be surprised if Jones is one of the top two target earners for Green Bay this weekend.

Last year, Jones dropped 30.5 points on the Bears in Week 2 with 170 total yards and two TDs. That is the type of ceiling we are talking about in this game for the hyper-efficient veteran back.

I have Jones higher than any other Fantasy Life ranker this weekend as my RB12.

- Dwain

🐴 QB - Anthony Richardson (Colts) vs. Jaguars

Two key metrics from the preseason help support the idea that Richardson could provide some truly great fantasy football goodness while struggling on the real-life scene: Nobody utilized run-pass-options (RPOs) or the no-huddle more frequently than the Colts in August.

• 28.4% RPO rate (next-closest team: WSH, 24.5%)

• 13.7% no-huddle rate (next-closest team: SEA, 13.2%)

One of my bold calls for 2023 is Richardson will set the NFL record for most carries by a QB in a single season – something that seems more possible than ever with disgruntled RB Jonathan Taylor (ankle/contract, PUP) unavailable for at least the first four games of the season.

Maybe just maybe, this schematic trend helps lead to a fantasy boom as early as Week 1: The Jaguars were a bottom-five defense in yards per play (5.4) and EPA (+0.11) vs. RPOs last season.

Guys like Tim Tebow and Taysom Hill have emerged as viable fantasy QB1s thanks to little more than that sweet, sweet rushing upside.

I’m riding with Richardson as a top-10 option out of the gate thanks to his status as (checks notes) objectively the most athletic QB the position has ever seen.

- Ian

🏆 Fantasy Life continues to grow. Wait, we added a Super Bowl Champ to the roster?!

😭 Will Cooper Kupp be back in Week 2? Sean McVay doesn’t sound too optimistic.

📺 Looking for the BEST games this weekend? The (NEW) Matchup Podcast and Paramount+ have you covered.

⚔️ Looking for low-rostered value this weekend? Pete has your keys for Battle Royale.

😅 Remember when Carson Wentz was QB3 in Week 1 last year?! Let’s learn how to avoid panicking…

😨 A Kadarius Toney “highlight” reel from TNF. The music really sells it.

✒️ Wait…Dak Prescott had to be sedated for over 10 hours?! You’ll never guess why.

😤 Stefon Diggs says his teammates STINK! But don’t worry, it’s all good in Buffalo.

👀 The Fantasy Life Eliminator League draft has concluded. Who’s your guess for first elimination?!

😆 OC Todd Monken talks about his first time calling plays. We almost lost a legend.

💇 Why is there such a big rivalry between the Broncos and Raiders? Not the reason you’d expect…

Stacking was the way to build optimal best ball rosters, but it’s DFS szn! We’ll need to construct our lineups in a similar manner and James McCool has the data to guide you for Week 1.

Welcome to High Value Facts and Stacks!

I’ll be outlining three high-value stacks for DFS and providing some important stats about them that separate them from the rest of the pack.

Typically, the goal here will be to talk about one popular option, one less popular option, and one value option. This way, you can find the right stack to focus on for a wide array of situations!

All images and model data for both DraftKings and FanDuel are sourced from Paydirtdfs.com.

🐬 Popular Option: Miami Dolphins

💰 Facts

• Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle had a combined average of 16.35 targets per game last year, while both eclipsed an elite mark of .20 targets per route run (.346 and .216, respectively)

• In 2022, Tua Tagovailoa led the league in completed air yards per completion with a mark of 8.8 yards, 1.3 yards higher than Josh Allen at second and 2.5 yards higher than Jalen Hurts

• In regards to the main slate of games for DFS, the Chargers and Dolphins have the highest over/under on the board at 51 points, nearly four points higher than any other game.

💰 Stack info (DraftKings)

Salary and projections:

• Combo 1 (Tua/Tyreek/Waddle): The Median score is 51.09 for a Salary of $22,000

• Combo 2 (Tua/Tyreek/Smythe): The Median score is 41.88 for a Salary of $17,700

• Combo 3 (Tua/Waddle/Smythe): The Median score is 39.19 for a Salary of $16,600

When you look at the Median score per unit of salary, the first combo provides approximately 51.09 / 22,000 = 2.32 points per unit of Salary.

Similarly, the second combo offers 41.88 / 17,700 = 2.37 points per unit of salary, and the third combo offers 39.19 / 16,600 = 2.36 points per unit of salary.

The second and third combos are marginally more "efficient" from a cost-to-median-score perspective, although the differences are minimal.

Finishing Percentiles:

• Combo 1 (Tua/Tyreek/Waddle): 11% Top Finish and 35% Top 5 Finish.

• Combo 2 (Tua/Tyreek/Smythe): 1% Top Finish and 8% Top 5 Finish.

• Combo 3 (Tua/Waddle/Smythe): 0% Top Finish and 4% Top 5 Finish.

When we look at these variables together, they help us gauge the risk vs. reward nature of each option.

📈 High Salary, High Reward

The first combo is the most expensive but also offers the highest upside. This could be your go-to option if you're willing to spend more for a shot at a high finish.

It has a significantly higher likelihood of not only achieving a Top Finish (11%) but also a Top 5 Finish (35%).

📊 Moderate Salary, Low Reward

The second combo has a moderate Salary, but its upside is much lower than the first row. While it has only a 1% chance for a Top Finish, its Top 5 Finish chance is also relatively low at 8%.

📉 Low Salary, Lowest Reward

The third combo is the least expensive but also shows the least promise in terms of high finishes.

With 0% for a Top Finish and 4% for a Top 5 Finish, this combo represents the highest risk in terms of performance but comes at the lowest cost.