Idea: the TE position, but with scoring...
In today’s Fantasy Life Newsletter presented by Jambys:
- Injury updates from around the league
- Week 11: Rankings & Tiers
- TNF: Fantasy & Betting Picks
- A disappointing TE set up for a nice week
- Bets from the group chat: Aaron Rodgers & the Eagles
- It's 11/17. Take it away, Peter Overzet...
We're at the point of the season where we need to grind out every possible edge to give us the best chance to sneak into the playoffs or, if you're fortunate, to fine-tune your juggernaut team.
With that said, here are a handful of interesting nuggets from yesterday that you should know about...
🙌 Chargers WRs return to practice
It's about time. Both Keenan Allen and Mike Williams returned to practice yesterday and participated in individual drills. Allen was bouncing up and down on both ankles, so that bodes decently for how he's feeling. The Chargers are 6.5-point home underdogs vs. the Chiefs this Sunday, but you are firing up both Allen and Williams if they are active.
📅 Hollywood Brown could be back for MNF
Finally, some good news out of Arizona. The Cardinals have designated Brown to return to practice after his stint on IR, and there's a chance he could play Monday night against the Niners. With Ertz out for the rest of the season, Brown should return to a decent chunk of targets, even with DeAndre Hopkins installed as the WR1. He was the WR8 on the year from Weeks 1-6.
🚑 Dallas Goedert headed to IR
There was hope it would just be a few games, but it will now be at least a four-game absence for Goedert as he deals with his shoulder injury. There really isn't much behind him that is interesting for your season-long leagues, though you could do worse than playing a $2500 Jack Stoll at TE on DraftKings this week.
🦁 Reinforcements coming for the Lions
With T.J. Hockenson shipped to the Vikings and D'Andre Swift forever limited, the Lions could really use some more playmakers. Fortunately, WR D.J. Chark (ankle) has been designated to return from IR, and rookie WR Jameson Williams is expected to be ready after Thanksgiving. Both should be snatched if you have the space (Williams, especially).
💣 Eno Benjamin could have been a Chief
As one of the leaders of the Benjamin fan club, it was tilting to learn that the Chiefs put in a claim for him. Instead of having little competition in one of the best offenses in football, he's now firmly behind rookie-of-the-year candidate Dameon Pierce in a bad offense. Sigh.
➕ Saints add an RB
Remember David Johnson? The Saints have signed him to the practice squad. The team had also put in a claim for Benjamin, so it's clear they are hunting for RB depth with Mark Ingram on the shelf.
Week 11 is when the rubber meets the road. Temperatures are dropping, and there’s snow on the field in Buffalo. These next few weeks are when champions are made and when the threat of last-place punishments begins to make you want to crawl into a cave.
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🥈 Tier 2 – Dalvin Cook
Cook has an 83% snap share since Week 6, making him one of a handful of backs in a proper every-down role.
He has three 23-plus point outings in his last five games, and opponents must attack the Dallas defense on the ground to offset their pass rush. The Cowboys have the seventh-worst PFF run defense grade.
Cook ranks three spots ahead of consensus as my RB7.
🥉 Tier 3 – David Montgomery
Montgomery is in line for more touches with Khalil Herbert on IR. Herbert averaged 11.3 rushing attempts per game in contests where both backs played.
The Bears’ are a run-first team, opting for the ground game no matter the game script:
- Trailing by four-plus points: 48% (1st)
- Within three points: 48% (5th)
- Leading by four-plus points: 71% (2nd)
Montgomery hasn't been very good this season, but he is likely looking at 20-plus opportunities per game. With teams having to account for Justin Fields more than ever, he should see some large running lanes.
The Falcons allow the seventh-most fantasy points per game on the ground in non-overtime play at 19.3.
Vegas loves this game (50-point total), and the Bears carry a top-eight team total.
Montgomery ranks six spots ahead of industry consensus and is a top-12 RB.
🥇 Tier 1 – CeeDee Lamb
Lamb erupted for the No. 1 WR finish last week, but his underlying utilization has been elite all season.
Of WRs with at least 200 routes, Lamb ranks No. 1 in target share at 33% and is eight in yards per route run (YPRR) at 2.41.
The Cowboys are maximizing their top option by scheming play-action targets on 37% of his looks – a 12 percentage point advantage over the average NFL WR and keeping him in the slot on 59% of routes.
This weekend the Cowboys face a Vikings team allowing the seventh-most points per game to pass catchers in non-regulation play (59.9) in a matchup with the second-best game total.
Lamb is in a SMASH spot as a top-three WR.
🥈 Tier 2 – Tee Higgins
The Bengals are hopeful to have Ja’Marr Chase back next week. That leaves Higgins with another opportunity to operate as the clear-cut WR1 against the Steelers.
The third-year WR has a 25%-plus target share in four out of eight games when playing at least 50% of the snaps this season. He averages 15.8 points per game in those healthy contests, three points higher than his deflated 12.8, thanks to two games where he left with an injury.
The Steelers allow the eighth-most points to pass catchers in regulation play and aren’t healthy in the secondary.
Higgins is a top-10 option in Week 11.
🥈 Tier 2 – Terry McLaurin
McLaurin had a rough beginning to the year, but he has blossomed with Taylor Heinicke under center – who is on tap for another start.
With Heinicke, McLaurin has target shares of 26%, 28%, 32%, and 44%. The fourth-year WR faces PFF’s worst-graded coverage unit over the last four games in Houston.
McLaurin is a top-12 option.
🥉 Tier 3 – Parris Campbell
Campbell has 29 targets and averages 20.8 points in his last three games with Matt Ryan.
The matchup against the Eagles isn’t easy, but Campbell is insulated by playing from the slot (78%) and collecting targets underneath (5.2 aDOT).
The former Ohio State product ranks 15 spots ahead of consensus as a low-end WR2.
Check out all of the Fantasy Life Rankings!
🤯 The surprise RB1 who stays consistent. Production you can trust every week.
🍒 Do you have the stones to go back to this TE? The numbers say we should.
💾 The Utilization Report video is BACK. 2 Rookies with league-winning upside.
🤔 What happens in DC when Wentz returns? This shouldn't even be up for debate.
❄️ The weather in Buffalo could be insane on Sunday. We'll keep tabs on this.
🔥 Watson may be the new hotness, but this Packers WR might be the better play in DFS. Find out what the pros think.
🎙️ An epic play-by-play call. This is such a fun watch.
⚙️ Never stop working the waiver wire. It's about the moral victories.
📈 This WR is finally in a spot to break out. Find out why you NEED to play him this weekend.
Tonight we get the Packers hosting the Titans as 3-point home favorites against the Titans in a game with a paltry 41-point over/under.
Hopefully, you grabbed the Packers at -2 when Matt LaMarca highlighted it on Monday, as the line has already moved a point in their direction.
The Titans are healthy on offense, although their secondary is still banged up. As for the Packers, Romeo Doubs is still on IR, and Randall Cobb's status (ankle) is still up in the air.
Here's everything we like tonight from a fantasy, DFS, and betting perspective:
Our research for these plays comes from, Run the Sims, Props.cash (Use promo code LIFE to save 20% on your subscription), PFF, OWS, and the Fantasy Life Rankings, Start/Sit tool, and Player Props tool.
Yes, the Titans are the league's biggest pass funnel, with teams throwing against them 73% of the time, but that won't be enough for Rodgers to go over 243.5 yards. This game is going to move at a snail's pace. The Titans and Packers are the two slowest teams in neutral situations. Both defenses limit chunk plays against them, with the Titans having the second-lowest play success and the Packers having the fifth-lowest drive success.
This means slow, sustained drives without chunk plays. Rodgers has lacked big plays all season, with just five passes longer than 40 yards on the season. The slow pace and lack of big plays is a recipe for an under, something Rodgers has done in 60% of his games this season. With a projection of just 193 yards, this is an easy under bet.
Before the Monday Night Football debacle, the Eagles were nine-point favorites against the Colts. The market has overcorrected after an Eagles loss. Yes, since Jordan Davis got hurt, the Eagles' run defense has been torn up on the ground and Jonathan Taylor just had his best game of the season. However, Philadelphia added Linval Joseph to address the nose tackle position and have advantages everywhere else.
The Eagles generate pressure at the ninth-highest rate and will come after Matt Ryan all day. Ryan’s yards per attempt drop from 7.3 to 5 when he feels the heat. Philadelphia's top-ranked pass defense by EPA should lock down big plays and force the Colts to sustain drives - something they have been unable to do, ranking 27th in play success rate.
On offense, the Eagles rank 2nd in both play success and drive success. They had three turnovers all year, and last week, they had three in one game. If they take care of the football, they should take care of business in what is one of the biggest coaching mismatches of the slate between the favorite for coach of the year in Nick Sirianni, and someone who has coached one game in his career in Jeff Saturday.
Kyler: “coach my hamstring hurts, looks like I can’t play this week”
Also Kyler: twitter.com/nbcsedgefb/sta…
— Hutchinson Brown (@hutchinsonb_ff)
Nov 16, 2022