CMC is back. The last time CMC was expected to play football was Week 1 MNF. Of course, he was a surprise late scratch and we haven’t seen him since. It’s reasonable to be skeptical about him returning to a full role, but he’s impossible to sit in managed leagues. He’s our consensus RB11 and I love the idea of playing him in DFS.

The Saints are decimated. On the flip side, New Orleans is in shambles. In addition to playing their first game under the Rizzler, they will be without Chris Olave—who might miss the rest of the season. Their WR room today is headlined by Mason Tipton, Marquez Valdes-Scantling (yes, he’s on the Saints now), and Jermaine Jackson. Safe to say, feel free to start Taysom Hill today (he’s our TE10).

Quick hitters. Drake London and Deebo Samuel are playing today … It sounds like Dak might be done for the year (& now the Cowboys are threatening us with Trey Lance) … The Jags WRs are good to go, bud bad news on Trevor Lawrence … Tank Dell is expected to play tonight, but Nico Collins is a GTD (make sure you have a backup plan) … Tyreek Hill is also a GTD for MNF. Ugh … We will have to wait another week to see Jonathon Brooks (knee; sigh).

Read on for an offense to load up on today in DFS …

What else is in today’s newsletter?

1. Week 10 DFS Plays: An offense to onslaught

2. Watercooler: Broncos QBs get grilled …

An Offense In A Smash Spot To Load Up On

by Peter Overzet

For Week 10, our DFS awards committee would like to spotlight two offenses to onslaught in GPPs (tournaments).

If you aren't hip to the DFS lexicon, "onslaught" refers to loading up with 4+ players from a single team and doesn't require a "bring back" from their opponent.

There are certain teams—like the Bengals last week—that need to be pushed by their opponent to get into a shootout. For those situations, I like utilizing a bring back so the story you are telling with a lineup is logical.

But sometimes a "bring back" is not necessary and the sharper play is just to load up on a single offense. This makes intuitive sense, too. The idea behind a stack or game stack is to reap the benefits of correlation and eliminate the number of things we need to get right.

When you introduce a "bring back," you now need to get two things right: 1) the primary stack to go off and 2) the additional piece on the opposing team to also go off. But when we onslaught a single team, our thesis relies on only getting one thing right—this one team smashes.

That's exactly how I want to approach the San Francisco 49ers and Minnesota Vikings this week. Both teams have awesome team totals—28.25 and 25, respectively—as well as opponents who have been ravaged by injuries and are unlikely to put up much of a fight.

Alright, let's get to the good stuff. How exactly to onslaught these two offenses …

🏆 HOW TO ONSLAUGHT THE VIKINGS (QB + JJEFF + AJ + 1 VALUE)

Like the Niners, the Vikings are in a terrific spot this weekend vs. a reeling Jaguars squad that could be without Trevor Lawrence. Ian's matchup charts like them for an explosive day through the air and it's an equally good spot on the ground. Here's how to play it …

Min 1: QB Sam Darnold ($6200)

Darnold is neck-and-neck with Purdy as the best QB play on the slate. The Jags defense is a turnstile. They give up the biggest fantasy boost (+6.4 points per game) to opposing QBs of any defense in the league:

Darnold has taken advantage of soft matchups, too, averaging 265 yards and 2.5 passing TDs the past two weeks vs. the Rams and the Colts. The floor/ceiling combo in this spot is excellent.

Min 1: WR Justin Jefferson ($8800)

I suppose you could galaxy-brain a Darnold stack without the best WR in football, but I don't want to be in that line of business. Most of the Darnold slate-breaking upside scenarios prominently feature Jefferson, so we are not going to overthink the WR with the highest projection on the slate.

The Jags' deficiencies against opposing QBs spill over to defending pass catchers, where they give up the second-largest fantasy boost allowed to WRs (+6.2). 

TLDR: play the man with a diamond tooth.

Min 1: RB Aaron Jones ($6700)

Jones is massively mispriced at this tag and should be a fixture of any Darnold stack or Vikings onslaught. Dwain laid out the case in his rankings piece this week and it's fairly straightforward.

His underlying usage has been elite since Jones returned from injury. Check out these data points:

• Snaps: 81% (elite)

• Attempts: 82% (elite)

• Attempts inside the 5-yard line: 100% (elite)

• Routes: 64% (great)

• Targets: 11% (good)

• Two-minute offense snaps: 100% (elite)

And now he gets to face a Jags defense that is just as bad against the run as it is against the pass, giving up the fourth-biggest fantasy boost to RBs at 4.4 points per contest.

I know sometimes it feels uncomfortable to use an RB in a QB stack, but Jones' price coupled with his pass-catching role make him a near-mandatory inclusion.

Min 1: WR Jordan Addison ($5300), TE T.J. Hockenson ($4700) OR Vikings DEF ($3700)

To round out our Vikings onslaught, we have three good options for a value addition.

The defensive play is very similar to the one with the Niners. Whether it's a banged-up Lawrence or Mac Jones, turnovers will be in play.

My preferred way to play it, though, would be to tack on one of Addison or Hockenson to the Darnold stack. 

We've already established that the Jags are awful against opposing WRs and Addison's large average depth of target—aka aDOT (15.7)—means that he could get loose for some big plays.

I always like correlating my TE with the QB, so Hockenson is also on the menu here. He returned to action last week and had a solid role (60% route participation rate) right out of the gate. It would make sense for the team to expand that even more in his second game back. This will likely be the last time he's priced under $5K this season.

RELATED CONTENT:

• More NFL DFS strategy for Week 10, including stacks, value plays, and fades.

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The latest fantasy nuggets, silliness, and NFL gossip from our merry band of football nerds:

🚁 The RB going for 100+ and 3 TDs today. The chopper has spoken.

✍️ Injuries and byes are piling up, but we have you covered. Your start-sit recommendations.

😆 The Broncos QBs get grilled by their partners. Too funny.

📊 Projections for every player on the Sunday slate … great tool to help with lineup decisions.

💰 Player Props for today’s slate. Geoff has you covered.

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