How Much Patience Do Rookies Deserve?

PLUS: Biggest risers from OTAs

Author

Jake Trowbridge
May 31, 2026

This time of year, it’s easy to fall victim to rookie fever. And to paraphrase the great Christopher Walken, the only prescription … is more sobering analysis.

Though we’ve recently been spoiled by some rookies who hit the ground running, it can often take a bit for the new guys to ramp up. 

Which begs the question, when is it too early in drafts to invest in the youth of today? Especially the “non-studs” of the draft class. The answer probably depends on your individual level of patience.

To show you what I mean, let’s revisit a few rookies from last season, comparing their first half fantasy finishes (Weeks 1-8) to their second half success (Weeks 9-17) in PPR points per game …

TreVeyon Henderson

  • Weeks 1-8: RB49

  • Weeks 9-17: RB10

Henderson rocketed up draft boards in the summer of ‘25, eventually securing fourth-round ADP. But few were prepared for the explosive runner to take a back seat to Rhamondre Stevenson. 

Actually, that’s an understatement. The rookie was basically strapped in a car seat like an infant while Stevenson did donuts around him in the metaphorical parking lot we call “the stat sheets.” 

Henderson finally came alive around Week 10, notching several weekly top-5 finishes down the stretch. But was it too little, too late for drafters?

RJ Harvey

  • Weeks 1-8: RB34

  • Weeks 9-17: RB12

You might’ve waited a couple more rounds hoping to get Sean Payton’s new “Joker” (aka the next Alvin Kamara), but instead got Two Faced.

Harvey was usable as a desperate flex play early on, but not exactly inspiring. That is, until J.K. Dobbins went down with an injury (as he’s known to do). 

In four of his last five fantasy-relevant games, Harvey finished as an RB1. That’s excellent production when you needed it most, though he was essentially a very expensive handcuff.

Colston Loveland

  • Weeks 1-8: TE44

  • Weeks 9-17: TE6

I could talk about several Bears rookies with similar trajectories last season (Luther Burden and Kyle Monangai both fit the bill), but let’s take a stop at Loveland.

I hate to pat myself on the back, mostly because I’m not that flexible anymore, but I was anti-Loveland in drafts last year because I knew I wouldn’t be patient enough for the eventual payoff.

I’m not mentally strong enough to sit idly by while my tight end fails to crack even SEVEN fantasy points in the first half of the season. Even if it means missing out on top-notch production later on.

The big takeaway: Before you click a rookie’s name in your drafts this year, you’ve gotta ask yourself one question: 

[Clint Eastwood voice] “Do I feel patient?” Well, do ya … punk?

Time to Buy Jeremiyah Love Making The NFL Leap

Few things are as breathtaking and fun to watch as Jeremiyah Love hurdling over defenders during his Notre Dame days. Many of those jumps set him loose on long runs on the way to amassing 3,016 scrimmage yards and 40 TDs for this multi-talented weapon who is taking his talents to Arizona. He’s not yet 21, and appears to have as bright an NFL future as any of the players just drafted. Now it’s time for forward-thinking fantasy managers to act when Love’s available in fantasy drafts in the months ahead.

UNest works the same way. You don't wait until your kid is 16 to start building their financial future. You start now, when time is your single greatest advantage. A tax-advantaged investment account that grows with your child, set up in under 10 minutes. The long game is always the smartest play, on the field and off it.

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Editors’ Picks

ICYMI, Dwain McFarland and Ian Hartitz banged out Cheat Sheets for all NFL teams. Here are three AFC divisions. And while you’re at it, check out their rankings and projections.

This new offense under Justin Herbert will electrify the league. Plus, more AFC West cheat sheets:

Joe Burrow is healthy, which means good things for Ja’Marr Chase and bad things for the competition. And more AFC North cheat sheets:

Josh Allen has a new toy in DJ Moore. Beware! Plus, more AFC East cheat sheets:

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Around the Watercooler

Stay up to date without spending hours scrolling for news. Catch up with the latest and greatest around the Fantasy Life and NFL ecosystem …

👀 Is Stefon Diggs’ landing spot a lock? This QB-WR duo would feed families.

📉 This third-year QB broke out last year, but beware of potential 2026 regression.

🚀 With a WR1 locked in, is it wheels-up for Cam Ward?

💪 Edges to exploit in 2026 IDP leagues … advanced stats that move the needle.

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Commanding Comeback in NFC East

The injury gods were certainly unkind to the Washington Commanders, as Jayden Daniels and Terry McLaurin were together for just three games last season. If you like football, and since you’re reading this, we’re pretty sure you do, you’re hoping for 17 healthy games from Daniels for plenty of offensive fireworks.

Ian Hartitz and Dwain McFarland conclude their cheat sheet series with a quick overview of the Commanders. And to make sure you haven’t missed any previous cheat sheets, here are their competitors in the NFC East:

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Daniel Jones Among Biggest OTA Risers For Fantasy Football

NFL OTAs are in full swing, and highlight clips have been coming at us like we’re drinking out of a fire hose.

Sifting through what to take seriously in the midst of all this noise can be a challenge, so let’s run through four players who are legitimate risers throughout the first portion of OTAs and what we could see happen to their fantasy football rankings over the next few months.

Daniel Jones | QB | IND

Last Wednesday, the Colts held their first open-media OTA practice for media, and per Kevin Bowen of 107.5 The Fan, Daniel Jones expects to be ready for Week 1 of the 2026 season. He took part in individual drills but has not moved on to 7-on-7 or 11-on-11 yet, with the expectation that he will move on to 7-on-7 drills this upcoming week. In the interim, Anthony Richardson and Riley Leonard are splitting first-team reps.

Just six months removed from his torn Achilles, Jones was on his way to a career year in 2025, posting a 68% completion rate, 5% designed rush rate, 5% scramble rate and 20.8 fantasy points per game through the first 14 weeks—good enough for QB1 treatment (QB10). He flashed immense ceiling, especially between Weeks 5 through 8, where he averaged 25.4 fantasy points per game (QB8).

The looming question surrounding Jones, though, is how this affects his rushing ability, as that’s the skeleton key to unlocking his true ceiling. It was noted that Jones has been doing some straight-line, full-field sprinting, but “cutting harder is something that still needs rehabbing”. 

Being three-plus months out from Week 1, Jones does feel like a safe bet to start the season as the starting QB and be close to 100%, but it’s fair to knock him with the unknown of his rushing upside post-injury. He’s currently going off the board with a fantasy football ADP of QB25, and there’s simply zero downside in clicking his name that late in drafts, especially given the upside we’ve seen.

With Josh Downs and Tyler Warren already being popular clicks with the departure of Michael Pittman Jr., Jones makes sense as a low-risk, high-reward QB2 click in Superflex drafts or backup option in redraft and best ball formats who could turn into your every-week starter.

NFC East Preview: Defenses Beware

All four teams in the NFC East could have top-10 QBs. Let’s go, fantasy points! Ian breaks down all the other fantasy-relevant players in the division. Make sure to subscribe today and don’t miss an episode of the Fantasy Life Show.

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