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It's the most wonderful time of the year … It's officially NFL Draft Week! This is like Christmas to many—looking at you, Matthew Freedman—with the culmination of mock drafts, scouting reports and workouts all coming together on a single night to give us the 2026 rookie draft class.
Earlier this week, Chiefs GM Brett Veach told reporters in his pre-draft news conference that "there'll probably be a lot of trades." The Giants started the party over the weekend after trading DT Dexter Lawrence to the Bengals for the No. 10 pick. While we are anticipating fireworks on Thursday night, we are also gearing up for rookies to explode in early drafts. Where could the biggest movers be lurking? Let's take a look at the ADPs three days before the NFL Draft …
Jordyn Tyson: 7th Round (ADP: 71.9)
Jordyn Tyson held a private workout last week that reportedly drew interest from 20 teams, but could the Giants' latest move be a giveaway into Tyson's landing spot? Giants GM Joe Schoen had dinner with Tyson before his workout and now could make him a top-10 draft pick. It feels like Tyson was going to move in Underdog drafts regardless—he's already being taken in the seventh round, but if he gets paired with Jaxson Dart, it feels like we will see him continue to climb. Is an early sixth-round Underdog price tag too rich? I'm trying not to let my ASU bias show …
Jadarian Price: 9th Round (ADP: 106.2)
Of course, everyone is focused on Jeremiyah Love in this draft, but what about his running mate Jadarian Price? He has a Rookie Super Model Rating of 71, and while he notched only 280 career carries (being stuck behind Love), he still has great qualities. His 4.13 YAC is the second-best in the RB class and 3.6 forced missed tackle rate is the third-best. Don't think "workhorse" when looking at Price, but with the right landing spot? In Matthew Freedman's two-round mock, he had the Seahawks nabbing Price with the 64th overall pick. In a backfield whose current healthy running backs are Emanuel Wilson and George Holani, I'd be willing to bet Price would move closer to the 7th round.
KC Concepcion: 10th Round (ADP: 110.7)
How many teams picking in the back half of the first round could use someone like KC Concepcion? His career 27.2% target share bests the rookie WR class, and while drops will need to be cleaned up (10% drop rate in 2025), how could we not like someone whose closest Rookie Super Model comps are Luther Burden and Brandon Aiyuk? Freedman's latest mock has Concepcion going No. 30 to the Dolphins, while Mel Kiper's mock puts Concepcion with the Saints at pick No. 42. Either way, his current price does not match what he can bring to the NFL. And by the way, if you didn't read his Players’ Tribune piece, then prepare to get fired up.
Emmett Johnson: 14th Round (ADP: 168.2)
I'm throwing Emmett Johnson in here for a few reasons, but let's start with the Rookie Super Model—his 69 rating puts him in the range of RB2-RB3 upside running backs. He is a change-of-pace back who can bring versatility to whichever NFL team drafts him. And his closest comps? Zach Charbonnet, Rhamondre Stevenson and Ray Davis. Johnson was also just named Mel Kiper's favorite RB prospect—highlighting not only his 93 forced missed tackles last season, but also his ability to be a playmaker in the passing game (something every fantasy manager loves to hear). He's considered a third or fourth-round pick, but depending on landing spot, he could create fantasy value.
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Five ADPs We Can’t Stop Clicking
The NFL Draft is a few short days away, which means things are going to change quite a bit in the fantasy landscape.
Fantasy football ADP is always shifting, but it’ll be especially drastic this time next week. So before the rookies all find their next homes, let’s take a look at five of our favorite players to click in Underdog drafts right now.
Chase Brown | RB | CIN
Underdog ADP: 22nd overall, RB13
Despite the slow start to last season, Brown finished as fantasy’s RB7 on a points per game basis (16.3). Turns out having Joe Burrow healthy at quarterback has a positive impact on your offense.
Who knew?
During Weeks 3-12, the Bengals' offense looked like a shell of its former self without its star quarterback. And although things did improve once Joe Flacco saved our fantasy rosters, it still wasn’t the same. With Burrow sidelined during that stretch, Brown averaged just 13.5 PPR points per game, ranking as fantasy’s RB20. He still averaged 5.7 targets per game, but only found the end zone twice during that span. As I highlighted in my touchdown regression candidates column, scoring opportunities were a lot harder to come by with Burrow sidelined.
Weeks 3-12 (without Burrow):
36% drives with a score (20th)
21% drives with a TD (23rd)
15% rushing TD rate (32nd)
59.4 plays per game (21st)
Again, Flacco’s presence did give this offense a much-needed boost, as the Bengals climbed to 11th in percentage of drives with a TD (11%) and sixth in percentage of drives with a score (46%) from Weeks 6-12. And Brown improved with Flacco, averaging three more fantasy points per contest.
But his final form was about to be reached.
Burrow returned in Week 13, and once he did, those who selected Brown in the second round of summer drafts finally received the reward they were waiting for. During that stretch, Brown averaged 22.3 PPR PPG, trailing only Bijan Robinson. The Bengals' offense was back.
Weeks 13-18 (with Burrow):
47% of drives with a score (6th)
34% of drives with a TD (6th)
29% rushing TD rate (24th)
68.0 plays per game (1st)
Fast forward to 2026, and Brown is currently coming off draft boards as the RB13, behind players like Omarion Hampton, Kenneth Walker, Saquon Barkley and Jeremiyah Love. I’ll comfortably take Brown over all four running backs.
Last Chance To Sell These Vets In Dynasty Leagues
Later this week, there's going to be chaos and a ton of uncertainty. But we can connect the dots in a few areas based on context—coaches' quotes and roster decisions. Some situations just make too much sense. Let's dive into a few dynasty fantasy football sells you should be looking to trade away before it's too late.
Terry McLaurin | WR | WAS
There's another obvious spot when it comes to quarterback development and adding first-round talent—the Washington Commanders.
The Commanders are in a prime spot to take a playmaker, specifically a receiver. They've done their homework. Washington has reportedly met with Carnell Tate, Makai Lemon, Jordyn Tyson, Omar Cooper and Denzel Boston. That's a lot of receiver homework!
David Blough is now the offensive coordinator after replacing Kliff Kingsbury, and my guess is he'd want to keep some of the same offensive principles. You don't want to take a young quarterback too far off the rails from what he's been learning the last couple of years. More so, I worry about another young, talented receiver coming in and what that means for Terry McLaurin.
McLaurin has been a model of consistency throughout his NFL career, up until last year's injury-plagued 2025 season, where nothing went right for the Commanders collectively.
Scary Terry is now 30 years old, and well, I’m scared.
Deebo Samuel is gone, and the Commanders simply cannot look at their depth chart, see Treylon Burks lined up across from McLaurin, and feel good about it.
Washington added Chig Okonkwo in free agency, who is solid but was never truly unlocked as a pass catcher during his time in Tennessee. He's a notoriously poor pass blocker, ranking near the bottom of PFF's grades, but he could see a lot of quick passes around the line of scrimmage given his yards-after-catch ability. It helps, but it's not enough.
Washington has the No. 7 overall pick, which is prime real estate for a receiver. Carnell Tate is a possibility, or maybe they trade down a few slots for Jordyn Tyson, whom many tout as the best receiver in the draft despite his own injury history.
Regardless, adding a first-round receiver would be great for the Commanders' offense as a whole, but bad for McLaurin specifically.
During Jayden Daniels' 2024 rookie breakout, McLaurin had a whopping 39% air-yard share, but he still owned just a 21% target share. That's not exactly a stranglehold on targets.
Daniels showed the willingness to spread it around, as four different Commanders had double-digit target shares that season. McLaurin's target competition at the time was Zach Ertz, Noah Brown and Olamide Zaccheaus, with a sprinkle of Dyami Brown. He didn't even crack 25% of the target share against that porous group.
There's another layer here. The Commanders ranked just 20th in pass rate in neutral situations in 2025, per Fantasy Points. Yes, there's a new offensive coordinator in town, but it's just another notch on the belt in terms of reasons for skepticism around McLaurin's volume.
As of Tuesday on DraftKings, Carnell Tate sits at +475, the third-best odds in the “to be selected at No. 7 overall” market. If a first-round receiver lands in Washington, I'm worried McLaurin won't hold onto that type of air-yard share—let alone the target share—by the end of the season.
Heck, there’s a chance that one of these talented youngsters can straight up steal the alpha role from him. Sell while the name still carries weight.
Fantasy
Around the Watercooler
The latest fantasy and NFL gossip, news, memes and more from our merry band of football nerds …
🤔 It was a down Year 2 for Brock Bowers, but he’s a massive buy in dynasty leagues.
📝 Who might the Giants take at 1.10? Doubling down on defense would be scary.
🦅 It could be a make-or-break year in Philly. What does that mean for their QB?
📈 An ascending QB that will keep rising? Buy, buy, buy.
📉 These would be awful for fantasy football. The worst potential NFL Draft landing spots.
Big Board vs. Rookie Super Model
It’s not exactly Matthew Freedman vs. Dwain McFarland. With the NFL Draft just days away, Freedman and Dwain got together to compare notes on some draft prospects in the latest episode of Talk Data to Me.
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