šŸŒ” Heat Check On 3 Offenses

Are they good for fantasy? Well...

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At this point, I think weā€™re all Questionable for Week 2ā€¦

  • Resetting fantasy expectations for 3 teams

  • Rankings, rankings, rankings! Get yer Week 2 rankings updates

  • QUICK HITTER: Injury Updates for Week 2!

  • A Star WR is set to return. Expecting a snap count?

  • Week 2 DFS Stacks: Jaguars Offense. To. The. Moon.

  • Itā€™s 9/16. Take it away, Chris Allen.

Weā€™re through one week of NFL action, and #ReactionSZN is well underway.

But we canā€™t overreact. Thatā€™s how you wind up spending all your FAAB on Puka Nacua a few days before he gets slapped with a ā€œQā€ tag ahead of Sunday.

We canā€™t underreact, either. If you thought Joshua Kelleyā€™s Week 1 was a fluke, Austin Ekeler had *slightly* different thoughts.

So, fantasy managers have to do something. And weā€™ve got another batch of games coming tomorrow thatā€™ll help tell us what to do. But before Week 2 kicks off, Iā€™ve got three offenses Iā€™m still trying to gauge after their season opener.

šŸŽ¢ Washington Commanders

First, Iā€™ll give credit where itā€™s due.

Sam Howell was a QB1 to start off the season. He shook off a massive hit in the first quarter and answered with two scores. Despite having just one career start before last Sunday, Howell looked like an NFL QB at times. But it wasnā€™t all pretty.

Despite being pressured at a league-average rate (32.5%), Howell took the second-most sacks (6) against the ā€œpotentially tankingā€ Cardinals.

But, even worse for fantasy, his pass attempts went to, well, everybody, apparently.

Commanders air yards

A ā€œLogan Thomas-Sam Howellā€ stack certainly wasnā€™t on my bingo card for 2023, and drafters targeting Terry McLaurin and Jahan Dotson in the early rounds certainly didnā€™t have the same plan.

Luckily, per our Utilization Report, the Commanders have a higher Dropback Over Expectation (DBOE) rate compared to last season. But Howellā€™s deep passing tree is a concern.

Unless OC Eric Bienemy is going to turn the Washington Commanders into the Kansas City Commanders, weā€™ve got problems in fantasy land.

Howell averaged 21.9 yards per drive (11th-worst in Week 1) and ran about as many red-zone plays (13) as the Chicago Bears (12).

Attacking the Broncosā€™ secondary (who just gave up two receiving TDs to Jakobi Meyers) may yield some fantasy production, but it might take a few more weeks to figure out this offense.

šŸ¦… Seattle Seahawks

To be fair, if I was Geno Smith, Iā€™d have said the same thing if Aaron Donald was flying at me (although, Iā€™d probably add a few more expletives).

My concern isnā€™t about the Rams generating pressure against Smith. DC Raheem Morris was an HC candidate in last yearā€™s cycle, and, oh yeah, theyā€™ve got Aaron freakinā€™ Donald upfront

Iā€™m more worried about Seattleā€™s response to LAā€™s defensive approach.

Smithā€™s 44.8% pressure rate was the single-highest mark any defense put on the journeyman QB since he joined the 12s. But part of the allure of Smith under center was his aggression. In similar spots (games with a +40% pressure rate), he averaged 9.4, 8.1, and 6.6 yards per attempt.

Against the Rams in Week 1? He hit his fourth-worst mark of 4.3 YPA since becoming a starter in 2013.

Seattle maintained a similar passing rate but added a target-demanding weapon in Jaxon Smith-Njigba. Plus, their offensive line suffered major casualties in Week 1.

I was hoping for fireworks in Week 2 like we got last year, but even our rankers have a hard time trusting any Seahawksā€™ pass-catcher not named DeKaylin.

Seahawks ranks

šŸ§€ Green Bay Packers

Sure, I said play Jordan Love, and one of Jayden Reed or Luke Musgrave would be good adds ahead of Week 1.

I mean, fantasy analysts only get to claim so many Wā€™s throughout the season. So Iā€™ll take them when they come, and the Packersā€™ offense looked explosive against the Bears.

But that one play to Aaron Jones (thrown -4 air yards) accounted for 20.8% of Loveā€™s total passing yards. Jones had another (thrown 5 air yards) that went for another 35 yards. Now, Iā€™m fine with the Packers building the entire plane out of explosive plays, but there has to be something in between.

Like with the Commanders, credit where itā€™s due. HC Matt LaFleur mashed all the easy buttons for Love using play action, screens, and RPOs to keep the offense moving. But Jones didnā€™t practice all week, and Christian Watson is still on the mend.

Atlanta (on paper) offers a tougher challenge for Green Bay, so Iā€™ll be watching the Pack in Week 2 to see how they fare against the Falcons.

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Rankings Roundtable

Debating between two guys on your roster? Need someone to break the tie for you? Matthew Freedman, Dwain McFarland, and Ian Hartitiz dove deep into their rankings to find a few players theyā€™re willing to push into their starting lineup for this week

Itā€™s Week 2, and fantasy managers are already resetting expectations for, well, everything.

Some early-round draft picks didnā€™t pan out as expected after a weekā€™s worth of games (Iā€™m looking at you, Tee Higgins and Saquon Barkley). And others just had bad matchups.

Regardless, the reality of the season hit us all, and we have to adjust.

As we head into another slate of games, our rankings squad got together again to find a few players theyā€™re higher or lower on relative to consensus.

So if youā€™re having questions about setting your lineup for Week 2, check out their notes before kickoff.

šŸŒŸ Brock Purdy (49ers) at Rams

In his seven full games last year ā€” from Week 14 to the Divisional Round ā€” Purdy went 7-0 as a starter and operated the offense with Jimmy Garoppolo-like efficiency, ranking No. 1 in EPA + CPOE (0.161).

Applied to the regular season, Purdyā€™s seven-game mark wouldā€™ve been No. 2, behind only Patrick Mahomes (0.178).

The Rams have the No. 32 secondary in our unit rankings, and 49ers HC Kyle Shanahan has dominated Rams HC Sean McVay in their head-to-head matchups, going 10-3 ATS (46.5% ROI) and 9-4 ML (46.1% ROI) against his former assistant (per Action Network).

In Week 1, Purdy picked up where he left off last year with 220-2-0 passing on a 65.5% completion rate with 9.0 AY/A and 3-20-0 rushing.

šŸƒ Gabriel Davis (Bills) vs. Raiders

Sauce Gardner and the Jetsā€™ lethal pass defense are now responsible for all three of Josh Allenā€™s worst performances in terms of fantasy points from purely passing production since the beginning of last season.

Donā€™t be surprised if Maxx Crosby makes his presence felt on at least a few occasions; just realize Vegas fully expects this Bills offense to rebound in a major way.

Just four offenses are currently implied to score more than 25 points based on Week 2 game totals and spreads:

  • Bills (27.75)

  • Chiefs (27.5)

  • Lions (26.25)

  • 49ers (26.25)

No Bills WR posted a higher route rate than Davis (94%) in Week 1, as he remains fully locked in as Josh Allenā€™s No. 2 WR inside of an offense that continues to want to throw the ball more than just about anyone.

Credit to the Raiders for holding up against Russell Wilson and company last week, but donā€™t be surprised if Allen has a ā€œYaā€™ll mustā€™ve forgottenā€ sort of performance ā€“ and his top-two WRs wind up being a major reason why.

- Ian

Rankings Roundtable

āš” Mike Williams (Chargers) at Titans

Williams let fantasy managers down last weekend with only 6.5 fantasy points, which hurt in a game where 70 points were scored.

However, Williams missed most of the second quarter (evaluated for concussion), and the Chargers posted a -7% dropback rate over expected (DBOE) against a Dolphinsā€™ defense that invited them to run the ball.

Chargers Utilization

This week, Los Angeles will face the Titans ā€“ a polar opposite to the Dolphins scheme.

Tennessee is extremely hard to run the ball against but prone to giving up big yardage through the air. Last weekend against this secondary, Derek Carr and the Saints threw for 305 yards with an average depth of target (aDOT) of 13.6 yards.

Given the QB and passing weapons at his disposal, we shouldnā€™t expect Kellen Moore to suddenly turn into a run-first coordinator. The matchup in Week 2 will allow the Chargers to be the best version of themselves.

I am seven spots ahead of consensus in the Fantasy Life flex rankings and 14 spots ahead of overall expert consensus. Williams is a mid-range WR2 with WR1 spike-week upside.

Quick Hitter
Watercooler

šŸ¤• C.J. Stroudā€™s shoulder injury puts his Week 2 status in doubt. The ā€œDavis Mills Experienceā€ lives on in 2023.

šŸŽ‰ Jerry Jeudy will make his ā€˜23 debut on Sunday. And HC Sean Payton doesnā€™t think Jeudy will need a snap count.

šŸ“ŗ Which games should you target in Week 2? Our Matchup crew and Paramount+ have you covered.

šŸ“Š Week 2 betting lines are movinā€™ and groovinā€™. Get the inside scoop on what sharps are doing this week.

šŸ¤£ Travis Kelce lets us know he's ready to go on Sunday. No lie, the dude has moves.

āœļø EVERYTHING you need to prepare for Week 2. All in under 7 minutes.

šŸ¬ Aaron Rodgers explains a new healing technique after his surgery. I canā€™t even tell if heā€™s joking.

šŸŽÆ This WR let you down last week. Trust in a Week 2 bounce back.

šŸ„ Asking Marshawn Lynch to milk cows went about as youā€™d expect. Never change, Beast Mode.

šŸ¤” Doug Pederson says Christian Kirk will see more action in Week 2. Sounds like the experts believe him.

DFS Stacks

Focusing on the Chargers-Dolphins game looked profitable in Week 1, and stacking strategies are the optimal way to attack building DFS rosters. If you want to get the jump on this weekend, James McCool from Paydirt DFS has the data to guide you for Week 2.

Welcome to High Value Facts and Stacks! Iā€™ll be outlining three high-value stacks for DFS and providing some important stats about them that separate them from the rest of the pack.

Typically, the goal here will be to talk about one popular option, one less popular option, and one value option. This way, you can find the right stack to focus on for a wide array of situations!

All images and model data for both DraftKings and FanDuel are sourced from Paydirtdfs.com.

šŸ… Popular Option: Jacksonville Jaguars

āœļø Facts:

  • Calvin Ridley finished the 2020 season with nearly 1,400 yards on 90 receptions, a yards per reception of 15.27, and 9 touchdowns, putting him on par with Justin Jefferson for yearly totals

  • In week one, the Jaguars played at a neutral pace and skewed heavily towards the run, but that didnā€™t stop Trevor Lawrence from pushing a 75% completion percentage and top 10 finish at the position in PPR scoring

  • Travis Etienne Jr. had terrific utilization in the season opener, with 80% snap participation, 83% route participation, and 21 fantasy points, good for the 4th best utilization score for running backs

DFS stacks

šŸ“Š Stack info (DraftKings)

DraftKings stacks

šŸ’° Salary and projections:

  • Combo 1 (Trevor Lawrence/Calvin Ridley/Zay Jones): The Median score is 43.72 for a Salary of 18,600

  • Combo 2 (Trevor Lawrence/Calvin Ridley/Evan Engram): The Median score is 40.88 for a Salary of 18,700

  • Combo 3 (Trevor Lawrence/Zay Jones/Evan Engram): The Median score is 37.91 for a Salary of 16,200

When you look at the Median score per unit of Salary, the first combo provides approximately 43.72 / 18,600 = 2.35 points per unit of Salary.

Similarly, the second combo offers 40.88 / 18,700 = 2.19 points per unit of Salary, and the third combo offers 37.91 / 16,200 =2.34 points per unit of Salary.

The first and third combos are marginally more "efficient" from a cost-to-median-score perspective although the differences are minimal.

šŸ“Š Finish Percentiles

  • Combo 1 (Trevor Lawrence/Calvin Ridley/Zay Jones): 4% Top Finish and 19% Top 5 Finish.

  • Combo 2 (Trevor Lawrence/Calvin Ridley/Evan Engram): 1% Top Finish and 11% Top 5 Finish.

  • Combo 3 (Trevor Lawrence/Zay Jones/Evan Engram): 1% Top Finish and 5% Top 5 Finish.

šŸ“ˆ High Salary, High Reward

The first combo is the most expensive but also offers the highest upside.

It has a significantly higher likelihood of not only achieving a Top Finish (4%) but also a Top 5 Finish (19%).

šŸ“Š Moderate Salary, Moderate Reward

The second combo has a moderate salary, but its upside is lower than the first combo.

While it has only a 1% chance for a Top Finish, its Top 5 Finish chance is also relatively moderate at 11%.

ā¬‡ļø Low Salary, Lowest Reward

The third combo is the least expensive but also shows the least promise in terms of high finishes. With a 1% chance for a Top Finish and 5% for a Top 5 Finish, this combo represents the highest risk in terms of performance but comes at the lowest cost.

Overall, the Jaguars will be popular along with their opponent (the Chiefs) because of a high game total and condensed offense. They make for a solid stack in all formats, but be sure to be reticent of leverage points in larger field GPPs.

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