🎠 The Head Coaching Carousel Is Full

You've heard of Shark Boy and Lava Girl, but have you heard of Tik-Tok boy and...

In today’s Fantasy Life Newsletter presented by Wander:

The Eagles weren't able to complete a fairy tale ending to their season thanks to this dude named Patrick Mahomes on the Chiefs. However, that didn't stop the rest of the league from taking notice of their dramatic turnaround over the last three seasons.

Everyone wants a piece of Philadelphia's winning formula, and on Tuesday, we found out both of their coordinators are departing for head coaching jobs.

🧳️ Shane Steichen to the Colts

Steichen served as the offensive coordinator over the last two seasons and was on the scene for Jalen Hurt's dramatic improvement. As a rookie, Hurts completed only 52% of his passes but was able to improve that to 61% and 67% over the next two seasons. 

The Eagles were one of the more forward-looking attacks of the 2022 season, going out of their way to stack edges in favor of their offense by keeping defenses on their heels.

• 7th in neutral first-down pass rate

• 8th in play action passing (31%)

• 6th in neutral play clock remaining (50%)

The first order of business is finding a starting QB, and we picked up several nuggets in Steichen's press conference.

The Colts currently own pick No. 4 in the draft, but they are within striking distance should they decide they want to move up for a QB they love.

✈️ Jonathan Gannon to the Cardinals

Gannon served as the Eagles' defensive coordinator over the last two seasons and oversaw a unit that improved from No. 25 to No. 6 in defensive DVOA. The Cardinals need a ton of help on defense, sporting the No. 24 DVOA unit.

The first-time head coach will have his work cut out to make an immediate impact — the Cardinals don't have the playmakers on defense the Eagles did in 2022.

Arizona spent first-round selections on off-ball linebackers Isaiah Simmons and Zaven Collins in 2020 and 2021, but they haven't paid off the way they hoped. Arizona's roster is devoid of quality pass rushers and coverage options.

The identity of the Cardinals will revolve around Kyler Murray, so finding the right offensive coordinator should be the No. 1 priority for Gannon.

Arizona must get their $46M-per-year QB on track. While Gannon could certainly work out, it is odd that the Cardinals didn't go for an innovative offensive mind they can protect from poachers if Murray turns his career around.

💭 I Wander Where Aaron Rodgers Will Play...

Only the darkness knows.

What we do know is that he didn’t book his darkness retreat with Wander.

Born from the frustrating experience of trying to work while traveling, Wander has a global network of smart homes where guests can work and play in the most spectacular locations with stunning vistas.

Guests will enjoy:

• High-tech homes in the most inspiring places, all accessible from your phone

• Modern workstations and restful beds

• Guarantees of a quality hotel paired with the comforts of a home

• A Tesla for use during your stay

Offering smart homes with inspiring views, it's no Wander (😉) why this is the future of travel.

Find your happy place (with lighting, of course), and book with Wander today.

With the NFL offseason quickly approaching, it is time to dive into available free agents and trade candidates. Today, we turn our attention to the WRs, where Dwain identifies the top options using historical data profiles for top performers.

Top-36 Fantasy WR Data Profiles (2011 to 2022):

🥇 Tier 1 – Mid-Range to Low-End WR2 Profiles

🥇 DeAndre Hopkins

Hopkins isn’t a free agent, but there have been reports that Cardinals owner Michael Bidwell wants to move on from the $34.4 million remaining on the WR’s contract over the next two seasons.

The 11th-year veteran – who ranks 36th all-time in receiving yards – might be hard for the Cardinals to extract much trade value from, thanks to his age (31) and recent injury history.

The best suitor will be a team in a win-now window.

Despite potential longevity concerns, Hopkins’ performance in 2022 was undeniably great. After missing the first six weeks due to suspension, he dominated with the ninth-most fantasy points per game at WR (17.1). 

Hopkins’ 2022 Data Profile:

Hopkins checks the most important box for WRs – the ability to demand targets.

Per PFF data, he averaged 10.3 targets (29%) in nine healthy games and ranked ninth in TPRR versus single-man coverage (42%). This was despite creating a step or more of separation on only 37% of routes, well below the league average of 51%. Hopkins doesn’t require separation to be considered open; he battled through tight coverage on 71% of his looks.

His 73.5 PFF receiving grade was the lowest of his career, thanks to a seven-year low averaging 2.8 yards-after-catch (YAC) and his second-lowest aDOT. That combination also led to his second-lowest yards-per-target season (7.7).

Unfortunately with WRs, it is hard to predict when the cliff will hit. We often don’t get a leading indicator, but Hopkins is in the window where deterioration can happen quickly. However, Anquan Boldin, Andre Johnson, Larry Fitzgerald and Steve Smith are examples of WRs who delivered high-end fantasy returns after Year 10.

Hopkins still has WR1 upside in the right offense thanks to his target-earning chops, but after factoring in age risk, he is in the WR2 conversation.

🥇 Keenan Allen

The Chargers currently project to be $19.8 million over the cap in 2023, which has put Allen’s $21.7 million cap hit under the microscope.

Allen’s age (31) will certainly play a factor in the Chargers’ decision, but when focusing on 2022 performance, the veteran demonstrated several WR1 traits.

Allen’s 2022 Data Profile:

There were concerns that Allen was slipping after a 1.77 YPRR and 77.5 PFF receiving grade in 2021. Both data points were seven-year lows, but he proved the doubters wrong as the No. 11 fantasy performer on a per-game basis.

Allen was still a high-end target earner in 2022, with an average target share of 27% in nine healthy outings. He was Justin Herbert’s clear No. 1 option, especially in clutch situations like third and fourth down, where he garnered a 38% target share.

The 11th-year veteran registered his highest yards per target (9.1) since his age-26 season in 2018. His 4.2 YAC per reception was in line with his career average (4.3), as was his 9.0 aDOT.

Allen is at the age where a sudden drop off could happen at any time, but playing inside from the slot on 65% of routes provides him a buffer. He saw 48% of his targets come against a linebacker or safety in primary coverage, the 12th most in the NFL.

Even at 31, Allen should remain a mismatch in those scenarios.

Allen ultimately grades out as a mid-to-low-end WR2 for 2023 due to the risk associated with his age, but he still has WR1 upside in a high-end offense.

🥈 Tier 2 – Borderline WR2 Profiles

🥈 Jakobi Meyers

After scoring only two TDs in his first three seasons, Meyers finally got things going with six scores in 2022, and fantasy managers were rewarded with a career-high 13.0 points per game.

The undrafted prospect out of North Carolina State is the latest rags-to-riches slot WR to emerge from the Patriots' offense. Much like Julian Edelman, Meyers was originally recruited as a QB in college, a resume bullet New England seems to value.

Meyers finished as a WR3 this year but registered WR2-worthy marks in TPRR, PFF receiving grade, and YPRR.

Meyers’ 2022 Data Profile:

His three-year 23% TPRR suggests Meyers could be a WR2 fantasy option in a pass-heavy offense that primarily deploys 11 personnel looks. Despite playing in a balanced attack without high-end QB play, Meyers has already found a way to deliver two top-36 finishes.

The fifth-year WR isn’t just an underneath option – while he isn’t a deep threat, his 10.4 career aDOT tells us he can threaten the intermediate areas of the field. Meyers is below average after the catch (3.7 yards), which could turn some teams off at his projected price tag. However, he earns targets at a higher clip than any other option in this free-agency class.

Meyers is a WR3 option that could upgrade to WR2 status in a quality pass-first offense.

🥉 Tier 3 – Boom-Bust WR3 Profiles

🥉 D.J. Chark Jr.

Chark averaged 9.8 fantasy points per game and eclipsed 14 points four times in 10 healthy games with the Lions.

Chark’s 2022 Data Profile:

While he has never proven to be a high-end target earner, with a career-high 19% TPRR, he has something that is hard to find in the 2023 free agency class – speed. Historically, WRs own their aDOT, and Chark has the highest at 15.9 yards.

The former second-rounder out of LSU also has a top-six YAC (4.6) in the class, providing him with an interesting combination of skills that could make him a hot commodity. Chark can score from anywhere on the field.

Given his skillset, Chark doesn’t need to be a 25% target share player. He could provide WR3 upside in the 17 to 20% target share range in a pass-heavy offense with a high-end QB (think Patrick Mahomes or Josh Allen). The sixth-year veteran had adjusted target shares of 21% and 18% in 2019 and 2020, so 17 to 20% is attainable if healthy.

🏹 A Valentine's Day beef in the NFL. Have to admit Tik-Tok boy was funny...

💔 Love on the rocks. Ain't no surprise.

🤑 $29.3M off the books. They now have the third-most cap space.

👣 The data from sod-gate is in. That is a lot of lost footing.

😢 It was a happy but painful ending. Try not to tear up.

📈 Should this rookie go that high? The RB4 off of the board.

🔎 A thorough search concludes. Did they get the right guy?

Fantasy managers are quick to forget and are even quicker to move on. Sam Wallace looks at players dynasty managers should not forget about as we head into the fantasy football offseason.

Welcome to the offseason. Dynasty managers rejoice!

The Senior Bowl, NFL Combine, and NFL Draft are all hallmark events that get true degenerates excited. It’s fun to take part in mock drafts, envision multi-team trades, and wish our favorite prospects into promising situations.

But it’s the constant looking forward that opens up opportunities for established NFL players.

As an Economics teacher, I love the game theory aspect of both real and fantasy football. This includes variables like cap space. It’s a finite resource that teams need to get creative with to build the best team possible.

I find it fascinating. So should you.

Every year, players get released, traded, or tagged. And this, in turn, opens the door for others to step up.

Enter, WR Joshua Palmer of the Los Angeles Chargers.

The second-year wideout finished inside the top 40 in targets, receptions, receiving yards, air yards, and PPR points. He capitalized on 11 missed games by fellow WRs Keenan Allen and Mike Williams and was essentially the team’s top wideout.

Palmer has two years remaining on his rookie contract, so he’s not going anywhere.

The Chargers have Picks 21, 54, and 85 in the first three rounds of the NFL Draft.

Many mocks have them taking an offensive skill position player or two in the early rounds. It makes sense to surround QB Justin Herbert with more weapons as Williams, who will be 29 next season, has dealt with a slew of injuries in his career.

Palmer currently has a “2023 Way Too Early” ADP of WR60, per Underdog Fantasy. For a player who carved out a role on one of the pass-heaviest teams in football, that feels like great value. His 17% target share isn’t eye-popping, but he’s shown he can handle a larger workload.

A final way to look at Palmer is this: there’s virtually zero risk. You’re getting him at the bottom end of the WR5 range, and that’s his absolute floor. Herbert has averaged 40 passing attempts per game through his first three seasons, and there’s little reason to expect that to change.

The opportunity is there and Palmer has already begun to seize it. He offers the ideal blend of price and upside you want at this stage of the offseason.