⚔️ We Got Ourselves A QB Battle

Happy Tutu Atwell day...

In today’s Fantasy Life Newsletter presented by Paramount+:

It's crazy how quicky things change in the NFL.

On Tuesday, I speculated that the Niners' crazy QB debacle would dominate headlines all offseason, and 48 hours later, the situation cleared up in a major way.

⛱️ Tom Brady: RETIRED

On Tuesday afternoon, Brady was priced at +150 (40% chance) to join the Niners, and then yesterday, he announced that he's done...for good. Brady was the only FA QB that made any sense on the Niners, so it seems pretty clear that they will keep their QB search in-house.

🚪 Jimmy Garoppolo: BEING SHOWN THE DOOR

Garoppolo is a free agent, but after Brady announced his retirement and the other QBs recovering from injuries, it seemed plausible that Jimmy G could return for one last hurrah with San Francisco.

But that was quickly shut down yesterday. Hear it directly from the horse's mouth:

Well that settles that...and sets us up for this:

⚔️ Brock Purdy vs. Trey Lance: CAMP BATTLE

And then there were two. The Brady retirement and Garoppolo statements make it much less likely that the Niners would consider moving Lance.

Instead, it looks like we are staring down an offseason competition between Purdy and Lance, both of whom appear to be on a good recovery track:

It really is a fascinating dynamic and a fork in the road for the Niners franchise.

Purdy is the bird in the hand, a rerun of what they've had with Garoppolo over the years.

Lance is the black box, an experiment that could position them as perennial contenders for years to come or blow up in their faces.

I'm a slave to upside, so it won't come as any surprise that I think the Niners should give Lance a fair crack. He's one of the youngest QBs in the league and played in one full game in 2023.

If the next Jalen Hurts or Josh Allen is sitting on your roster, you owe it to yourselves to find out.

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Do we really have to say anything else???

👴 How do you get to the Super Bowl? Jerry Jones tries (and fails) to explain.

🐬 Great news from Miami. Although it's still a dicey situation going forward.

🎥 Is the NFL scripted? Alvin Kamara and Arian Foster weigh in.

🤠 The Cowboys plans at RB next year. You aren't going to believe this (jk, you will).

🔍 Can someone find the NFC South a QB? Yikes.

🐻 The Bears tip their draft plans. Let the offers begin.

With the NFL offseason quickly approaching, it is time to dive into available free agents. We kicked things off with the QBs, and today we keep rolling with the RBs. Take it away Dwain...

📁 Tier 1 – Every-Down Backs

📁 Tony Pollard

Pollard doesn’t have the same draft pedigree as several peers on this list, but his underlying talent profile is the most well-rounded and electrifying. Only two RBs eclipsed an 80.0 PFF rush grade and a 75.0 PFF receiving grade in 2022: Austin Ekeler and Pollard.

While Pollard isn’t a big back, he is exceptional at creating yards after first contact, ranking well above the three-year NFL average of 2.9 yards in every season. He isn’t a traditional bruiser, but has strong contact balance and can escape arm tackles regularly.

Those traits, paired with his acceleration and speed, make the fifth-year RB a threat to score from anywhere. Pollard has consistently registered runs of 10-plus yards, with 14%, 10%, 13%, and 16% over his first four seasons. The average for a top-12 fantasy RB has been 12% since 2011.

What is even more impressive is the fact that Pollard has delivered these results on typical down and distances. His stats aren’t cushioned by plays where the defense is giving up the run to take away the pass. Over the last two seasons, he ranks No. 1 in PFF rush grade (88.7) on first and second down with three to 10 yards to go when the score is within three points.

In the passing attack, he doesn’t have a peer in the free agent market. He has high-end RB1-worthy yards per route run (YPRR) marks of 2.01 and 1.51 over the past two seasons. Pollard can run routes beyond the line of scrimmage – he ranked sixth in aDOT (1.5) for RBs – and he is a mismatch against many linebackers and safeties.

Pollard underwent surgery for the high-ankle sprain he suffered in the loss to the 49ers during the Divisional Round in late January. He should be ready to go ahead of training camp and will only be 26 years old in April.

The former fourth-round pick can make an impact on any team. Compared to his peers, his estimated average annual salary of $9M looks like a bargain.

Pollard has high-end RB1 fantasy upside in a scheme that gives him 175-225 carries and most passing-down duties. Like Ekeler, he doesn’t necessarily need a bell-cow role to hit his ceiling potential.

📁 Josh Jacobs

If you drafted Jacobs in fantasy in 2022, you likely made the playoffs based on that one genius selection. He led the NFL in rushing yards and was the RB2 in fantasy scoring.

Jacobs flashed high-end yards-after-contact prowess as a rookie, averaging 3.5 yards after contact per carry. However, that number slipped to 2.8 over his second two seasons before rebounding to 3.4 in 2022.

Outside of that rebound, most of Jacobs’ efficiency metrics align with previous years in his career. The big difference this past season was getting an 85% share of the Raiders’ rushing attempts, which enabled 340 totes. He also registered a career-high in route participation (53%), but his TPRR (18%) and YPRR (1.17) were in line with previous seasons.

The former first-round selection will only be 25 years old next season and figures to battle Saquon Barkley for the largest RB offseason contract.

Jacobs doesn’t possess the same dual-threat ability as Pollard, but he isn’t a zero in the passing game. He is a high-end early-down option who can punch in TDs inside the five-yard line. He is above average in the big-play and make-you-miss departments, which keeps long scoring plays on the table.

From a fantasy perspective, Jacobs will carry a high-end RB1 upside if he lands on a high-scoring team where he can maximize his ability to score TDs. The worst-case landing spot would be a low-scoring team with a top-notch receiving back.

📁 Saquon Barkley

Barkley is more of a “tweener” between Tier 1 and Tier 2. He definitely has every-down ability, shown by his 295 attempts (4th) and 76 targets (4th), but his underlying data suggests the former No. 1 overall NFL draft selection isn’t what he once was.

If there were only one concerning data point across his talent profile, it wouldn’t be a big deal. However, Barkley grades out as average to below average in almost every category. Historically speaking, these marks are more in line with a volume-dependent RB2.

Of course, we can’t lean too heavily into a bad efficiency year, especially for a soon-to-be 26-year-old. Barkley was better after contact (3.3 yards) and in attempts of 10-plus yards (12%) as a rookie, but he could easily rebound, as did Jacobs last season.

The biggest concern around Barkley’s profile is his ability in the passing game. As a rookie, he demonstrated high-end upside with a 24% TPRR and 1.53 YPRR. Since then, he’s had two sub-20% TPRR and three sub-1.20 YPRR campaigns. Expectations were higher in 2022, considering the lack of receiving weapons on the Giants.

Barkley has some red flags, but he should get a hefty contract by RB standards and has an every-down skill set. That should be enough to provide him with mid-range RB1 upside regardless of the landing spot, but his talent profile is more replaceable than some might think. That creates a risk of losing snaps, similar to what we saw with Leonard Fournette last year.

📁 Tier 2 – High-End Early-Down Backs

Our resident betting sharps at Fantasy Life have a group chat. Lucky for you, they are leaking the alpha. Here's what Geoff came up with for this week...All odds via BetMGM

💰 Chiefs Team Total under 24.5

This line feels like it is underrating the Eagles' defense. Philadelphia ranked first against the pass in defensive DVOA and sixth overall as a unit in the regular season. They also allowed the fourth-fewest points against and, over their last three games, have allowed an average of just 10.0.

Kansas City’s offense ranked first in EPA/play this season on QB dropbacks, but throwing a lot in this game will only mean they’re playing into the strength of the Eagles. Philadelphia posted a league-leading -0.09 EPA/play when teams dropped their quarterback back to pass and allowed over 250 yards passing just once this season.

It’s worth noting that defenses have dominated over the last four years in the Super Bowl, with six of the last eight teams posting less than 24.5 points – and each of the last four losers failing to post more than 20 points.

Look for the Eagles to continue this trend and hold the Chiefs to a low total in the big game in 2023.

💰 Miles Sanders 75+ Rushing Yards (+200)

In terms of matchup, the Eagles' rushing offense vs. the Chiefs' rush defense isn’t a fair fight. Philadelphia ranked first in offensive rush DVOA, while Kansas City's defense finished 15th against the rush.

Miles Sanders is a player who could easily explode if Philadelphia was to get out to a decent lead – and they did lead the league with a +9.9 margin of victory this season.

While blowouts in the Eagles' last two games have resulted in more work for Boston Scott and Kenneth Gainwell, it’s far less likely the Eagles pull Sanders early against Kansas City, with load management not being an issue.

The Chiefs allowed 6.1 yards per carry in the divisional round to Travis Etienne, who only came short of the 75-yard mark that day due to some untimely turnovers and lackluster play by his defense. That’s far less likely to be a problem for Sanders as the Eagles have one of the most opportunistic defenses in the league and a quarterback who threw just six INTs this season.

With Sanders in a great spot, targeting his alternate lines makes sense at bigger odds.