🐐 The GOAT Retires

To be fair, Tyler Huntley is probably a great flag football QB...

In today’s Fantasy Life Newsletter presented by Pristine Auction:

We often look at the dead week after the Conference Championship games as the first big week of the offseason, even though the Super Bowl has yet to be played. That notion played out in a huge way over the last 24 hours with two HUGE announcements.

🐐 The GOAT is Retiring for Good

A day after everyone on the planet debated him signing with the 49ers, Tom Brady put an end to our speculation.

While many will debate if he is actually done or not, this feels pretty legit, and it is hard to see the future Hall of Famer changing his mind in two consecutive off-seasons. He might not have gotten the fairy tale ending he hoped for, but Brady's resume is one that up-and-coming superstar QBs will be chasing for a long time.

Some of these records may never be broken, so the GOAT lives on.

✈️ The Broncos traded for Sean Payton

The Broncos went all in on Russell Wilson last season by sending first- and second-round picks in the 2022 and 2023 drafts to Seattle. Now they are doubling down, sending another first- and second-rounder to New Orleans for Sean Payton.

While losing additional draft capital might sting, research suggests that head coaches carry over ~70% of their previous head coaching performance to the next job. Payton won 152 games while only losing 89 in 15 seasons as the Saints' head coach. From 2009 to 2020, he delivered the third-most wins over expected.

If Payton can keep the mojo going, he is likely worth more than the player the Broncos would have selected at Pick 29 in the 2023 draft.

So, what can Broncos fans expect from their new head coach?

⚒️ He will help mine and maximize talent.

There might not be a better head coach to help turn around a team without high-end draft capital. Payton has an extensive track record of finding offensive gems outside of the first round.

• Marques Colston, 7th Round

• Jimmy Graham, 3rd Round

• Alvin Kamara, 3rd Round

• Pierre Thomas, undrafted

• Lance Moore, undrafted

✅ He will generate easy yards.

No offense delivered more receiving yards via their running backs than the Saints from 2012 to 2021, with 9,540. Payton is a mastermind in the screen game and understands how to create mismatches against safeties and linebackers with his backs.

The question here will be how Payton meshes his offense with the play style of Wilson, who likes to push the ball down the field. Recent attempts to revamp Russ's play style haven't gone so well. If anyone can help Wilson rebound, it is likely Payton, but the two will need to figure out how to make this a profitable marriage for both sides.

🤩 He might turn Greg Dulcich into a superstar.

Dulcich averaged 17% of the Broncos' targets in his starts — a number only three other rookie TEs have reached since 2011: Kyle Pitts, Evan Engram and Jordan Reed. Payton loves to attack the hash marks, and Dulcich is capable of working the seams to create mismatches against linebackers and safeties. Comparing him to Jimmy Graham would be aggressive, but realistically, Dulcich could be the No. 1 or 2 passing-game weapon for Denver in 2023.

🏈 Who's gonna win the Big Game?

Trick question - you are!

'Cause while the Chiefs and the Eagles battle on the field, you can enter to win a free $300 credit from Pristine Auction.

They just picked up a roster of signed memorabilia, like:

• Travis Kelce helmet

• Patrick Mahomes jersey

• Jalen Hurts jersey

• AJ Brown helmet

But it doesn't end there, you can browse tons of one-of-a-kind finds for the Big Game (and beyond).

And with an A+ BBB rating, the latest addition to your Man Cave always comes with a certificate of authenticity. Sounds like some bragging is in order.

Don't get left empty-handed in the offseason. Up your fandom with Pristine Auction and use registration code 'Life' to snag your free $300 credit.

The NFL offseason will be in full swing before we know it, with coaching changes, free agency, and the NFL draft reshaping the 2023 fantasy football landscape. With that in mind, the Fantasy Life squad is breaking down every NFL team to determine what went wrong in 2022 and identify paths to improvement. Chris is here to take on our next project, the Falcons...

Team Summary

No one knew what to expect from Atlanta to start the season. Arthur Smith’s time with Marcus Mariota in Tennessee made the signing more palatable. Plus, Atlanta added Drake London to pair with Kyle Pitts. With vets like Cordarrelle Patterson already making waves in the fantasy market, it felt like this offense could be productive. We didn’t know how it’d work. We just went off vibes.

But the good times only lasted for about six weeks. Despite being dead last in the NFC South, Atlanta ranked ninth in EPA per play. The offense averaged 35.5 yards per drive (the league average was 32.1), and the Falcons had at least one top-12 skill player every week except for Week 5. However, despite fantasy-friendliness, the points weren’t going to the right player.

Pitts was coming off a record-breaking rookie campaign, had a third-round ADP, and ended Week 1 with 19 yards. His 27% target share ranked ahead of Ja’Marr Chase, but the sophomore TE only earned four red-zone targets. Fantasy managers didn’t know when to start him, and his Week 11 injury likely saved us (and him) from hoping things would turn around. But I’m optimistic.

Desmond Ridder took over for Mariota to close out the regular season, and the results were promising. Ridder lost his first two starts on the road, with both coming against teams who finished the season inside the top 10 in defensive DVOA. But Atlanta still averaged 34.2 yards per drive, with London as the featured receiver and Tyler Allgeier leading the ground game. Adding more young talent would put them on the right track for 2023. However, they could get a bit more out of one of the guys they already have.

🚧 Fantasy Fixer Recommendations

1. Get Ridder on the Move

Give credit to Arthur Smith and his run-blocking designs. He had the 49ers in a bind in their statement win over San Francisco back in Week 6 and nearly two months later, the Falcons were second in rushing success rate during Ridder’s first start against the Saints. But Atlanta’s run game wasn’t limited to C-Patt and Allgeier.

Before his benching, Mariota had the fourth-highest designed rushing rate, with 69% of his attempts coming in the non-scramble department. And he largely capitalized on the touches, with the fourth-best EPA per attempt. He had more explosive runs than Kyler Murray and generated the sixth-most first downs among all QBs with his legs. But when Ridder got the starting job, he only had five designed attempts over his four starts. Coach Smith should be using Ridder similarly next season.

I’m not asking Ridder to be Lamar Jackson after the snap (I dig the idea, though). But let’s assume the 23-year-old has more juice than the eight-year veteran. Ridder moved the chains quite often during his final season at Cincinnati. The then-prospect ranked 25th in running first downs out of 66 FBS quarterbacks. His yardage totals weren’t as gaudy as Malik Willis, but PFF’s rushing grade had him in the top 20. If Ridder takes another step as a passer and gets more rushing volume, this offense would have the versatility needed to compete.

2. Renovate the Defense

Now, let’s not get ahead of ourselves here. Bolstering the defense wouldn’t turn the Falcons into the Chiefs. However, we’d likely get some more plays out of them on a per-game basis. It’s actually kind of surprising to see how Atlanta’s offensive tendencies changed as contests swung in their favor.

Traditional thinking would have you milk the clock via run plays to salt away the match. But the Falcons took to the air more often when above an 80.0% win probability. What’s worse is that they were at or exceeded that win probability on just 92 of their 1,000 plays this season. I’ve already talked about getting Ridder on the move to get the offense on track, and I have more thoughts on the passing game. Let’s look at their defense for a bit, though.

The Falcons allowed at least one top-12 fantasy performance from an opposing player every week except Week 16 when they played a depleted Ravens squad. Otherwise, they were the team to target. Their pass rush generated the fewest sacks, and their secondary was bottom-12 in first downs allowed through the air. Atlanta’s playstyle didn’t help, and their defense also contributed to their offense having the second-fewest drives last season. But they do have the means to turn it around next season.

They’re second in cap space, with many marquee defenders set to hit the market. Mocks also have them eyeing an EDGE in the first round. Regardless, adding resources to that side of the ball will take the pressure off Ridder and the offense.

🏠 The Texans land their new head coach. He's going home.

👀 Not many coach trades include a first-rounder. That is a pretty good list...

🤥 Payton wasn't the Broncos' first choice? Get your stories straight, you two...

✈️ The Brady domino has fallen. Is Rodgers next?

📏 Scouting the 2023 class is full steam ahead. It's measurement SZN.

😳 Wait, he wasn't already a Pro Bowler? Get outta here!!!

🔥 The GOAT chose the right Ride or Die. Now he is in the Super Bowl.

Fantasy managers are quick to forget and are even quicker to move on. Sam Wallace looks at players dynasty managers should not forget about as we head into the fantasy football offseason.

💌 Parris Campbell

It’s difficult to get an accurate evaluation of a player if he can’t stay healthy.

That’s been the case with fourth-year WR Parris Campbell.

He appeared in just 30% of possible games from 2019-2021. Finally, he played in all 17 games this season and finished as a low-end WR4. He had more targets, receptions, receiving yards, and TDs in 2022 than in his previous three seasons combined.

Let’s not forget about Campbell.

Dating back to his time at Ohio State, Campbell outperformed then-teammate WR Terry McLaurin during their four years together. McLaurin has been a top-30 WR all four years in the league, missing just three total games in his career.

For Campbell, a slew of injuries have prevented him from becoming a consistent fantasy contributor. It’s easy to forget he’s an elite athlete. He posted 90th+ percentile scores in the 40-yard dash (4.31), shuttle, broad jump, and vertical jump.

He turned it around this season.

Campbell ran the third-most slot snaps (521) of any WR and was the WR5 in the percentage of snaps coming from the slot (82%). He also finished as the WR11 in missed tackles forced.

His best performances came from Weeks 6-9 where he posted three WR1 weeks (18+ points per game). Overall, he had just six performances with 10+ fantasy points and finished the season with 5.4 targets per game along with a 16% target share.

Still only 25 years old, Campbell enters this offseason as an unrestricted free agent. This WR free agent class is weak, and the Colts may look to retain him.

Indianapolis has the No. 4 overall pick in the NFL Draft. After failing through veteran QBs Philip Rivers, Carson Wentz, and Matt Ryan, they are a near-lock to draft a QB. It’s possible they trade up, which would change their current stock of draft picks, but they currently have Pick 35 and 79 as Day 2 selections.

The Colts have an elite RB in Jonathan Taylor, a budding star WR in Michael Pittman Jr, and are projected to be a top-10 team in cap space. If this team drafts a rookie QB, re-signs Campbell and makes another addition or two via the draft & free agency, they could be set up well to turn this team around.

Pittman and Taylor both have one year left on their rookie contracts. Getting a QB on a rookie deal will afford them the resources to build around their franchise-hopeful.

Injuries may continue to plague Campbell, but based on what we’ve seen on the field, and the current direction of this team, I don’t believe he should have a “2023 Way Too Early” ADP of WR77, courtesy of Underdog Fantasy.