🐻 This GM Is Bearish On His WRs?

Defensive linemen out here running like WRs...

In today’s Fantasy Life Newsletter:

With coaches and general managers hanging out in front of microphones at the NFL Combine, the storylines continue to pour out of Indianapolis.

Ravens' GM, Eric DeCosta, was asked about the struggles drafting WRs, and he indicated disappointment in the team's inability to hit on an All-Pro caliber player. He went on to say they would keep trying to find a high-end option. Of course, it didn't take long for his current No. 1 WR, Rashod Bateman, to respond with a tweet he has since deleted.

DeCosta's answer was a bit puzzling, given that Marquise Brown delivered solid production as a 23% target-share option in his second and third seasons and netted the Ravens a first-round pick from the Cardinals.

Yeah, he isn't an All-Pro, but Brown wasn't a bad pick.

The jury is still out on Bateman, who only suited up for 12 and six games over his first two campaigns.

The fantasy community was quick to back the former first-rounder in 2022 as a fifth-round selection despite a forgettable Year 1. As a rookie, Bateman only registered a 16% TPRR and 1.26 YPRR, but many fantasy managers gave him a pass thanks to his draft capital and the departure of Brown via trade.

Of course, Bateman's high-end collegiate profile was also a factor. The former University of Minnesota superstar was an early draft declaration after delivering a 30% or better target share in all three seasons as a Golden Gopher.

In 2022 Bateman made progress, albeit on a limited sample of 120 routes. He notched a 2.38 YPRR and 23% TPRR — numbers that suggest he could have high-end WR2 to low-end WR1 ability.

While extrapolating on small samples doesn't always work out, Bateman's Round 7 price tag (WR42) on Underdog provides plenty of room for upside, and the risk associated with missing isn't high. Those factors make him someone worth gaining exposure to in our early-2023 draft portfolio.

It might seem crazy, even implausible, but there is a large cohort of us fantasy sickos who are already drafting best ball teams for the 2023 season. Today, Pete shares five things you need to know to win $200,000 in Underdog’s pre-NFL Draft contest, The Big Board…

Things You NEED to Know to Win $200,000 in The Big Board

Every year the best ball space continues to grow and our friends at Underdog Fantasy recently launched their first big tournament of the offseason, The Big Board.

There’s a $1,000,000 prize pool (the same size as the first-ever Best Ball Mania prize pool if you want to benchmark how quickly things have exploded in four years) with a hefty $200,000 first-place prize.

This contest will close before the NFL draft and it’s currently over 42% filled at the time of this publishing, meaning it will likely fill by the end of March at this current pace.

I’ve already drafted a few handfuls of teams and there are some interesting settings and strategy quirks to consider before diving in. Here’s everything you need to know to draft a winning team in The Big Board…

New to Underdog? Confused as to why people are drafting teams on March 3rd? No sweat. 

Learn EVERYTHING you need to know here. 

When you decide to join in on the fun, you can use promo code LIFE when you sign up, and they’ll match your first deposit up to $100.

1. The Rookies Are Here

There’s nothing better than an influx of talent to the player pool and the rookies immediately become a key element to a good draft strategy. 

Year after year, rookies are one of the few cohorts of players who outperform their ADP. Even better, their production increases as the season goes along and peaks when it matters the most in the fantasy playoffs.

Although we don’t know where these players will ultimately land, we can use projected draft capital and prospect profiles to make educated guesses on the upside they present at various points of the draft.

High-pedigree rookies like Bijan Robinson (ADP 13.3) and Jaxon Smith-Njigba (ADP: 56.3) don’t come cheap in Big Board drafts, but there are plenty of rookie values at later points in the draft.

I specifically like targeting rookie RB flyers after pick 100, which is traditionally the sweet spot to the draft for Zero RB targets who can wildly outperform their cost (think Tyler Allgeier and Isiah Pacheco from last year).

2023 rookie RBs like Sean Tucker (137.6), Devon Achane (141.9), Tyjae Spears (153.0), and Tank Bigsby (172.6) all fit this mold for me. 

The rookie WRs feel efficiently priced to me so I’m proceeding with more caution there, but the rookie QBs and TEs (more on them below) present plenty of value in drafts for those willing to embrace risk while chasing upside.

2. You Have Two Extra Roster Spots (20 Round Drafts)

Unlike the post-NFL draft contests with 18-round drafts, Underdog has given us two extra roster spots to play with despite the starting lineup requirements remaining the same as in the traditional contests:

Having an extra 19th and 20th-round pick might not seem like much, but it adds immense flexibility to the structures you can employ while drafting.

Many of the same structural principles we discussed during hot best ball summer still apply here:

• Draft like you are right

• Get comfortable with quality or quantity, not both

• Let the draft room dictate your construction

But the difference in the Big Board is that you can now push structural strategies to more extremes knowing you can paper over your weaknesses (lack of quality) with added resources (more quantity) at the end of the draft.

For example, if you go Zero RB and don’t select your first RB until the 8th or 9th round, you can plan to draft 7, 8, or even 9 RBs in total.

If you don’t take a QB or TE through the first ten rounds, you can easily select three of each position late into the draft.

Just make sure to always let your early draft picks dictate what you do in the later rounds. 

The more draft capital you spend on a position early, the less quantity you need to devote to it later, and vice versa.

3. Uncertainty! (FA, Schedule, NFL Draft all TBD)

There is always uncertainty when it comes to drafting and forecasting fantasy football, but it is even more extreme when you draft in early March. 

Not only do we not know where the rookies are going to land (April 27-29), we don’t know how NFL free agency will play out (March 13) or even what the NFL schedule (early May) will be.

That presents difficulties for many important drafting considerations:

Bye weeks

If you only draft two QBs or two TEs, there’s a chance both will have the same bye week. Now, bye-week worries are generally overblown (if you take a 0 at the TE position one week where the average score is so low anyways, it’s not going to kill you), but you need to be at peace with the fact that you might step on an unforeseeable landmine.

Stacking

Over the next couple of weeks, many QBs will be on the move in free agency.

That makes it tough to prioritize stacks for every team, something that is a bedrock strategy for winning tournaments.

It is admittedly fun to try to anticipate stacks ahead of time (like pairing Aaron Rodgers with your first-round Davante Adams selection), but you’ll be wrong more often than you are right.

Continue to prioritize stacks we can bank on (Ja’Marr Chase and Joe Burrow, for example) and come to peace with the fact that some of your free agent and rookie QBs will go unstacked.

Week 17 correlation

We explained in detail last summer why correlating your pieces in Week 17 is key to winning tournaments (and that’s exactly what happened with a Bucs/Panthers stack leading Pat Kerrane to a $2,000,000 win in Best Ball Mania III), but that will be nearly impossible to do in this contest without the schedule released yet.

If you really want to galaxy brain, you could try to stack teams from the same division, knowing they often play each other in Week 17, but that is unnecessary.

⏱ Defensive tackles shouldn't run this fast. He is in elite company.

🤬 They are still beefing. Language!!!

💰 RB Free Agency is going to be INSANE. This class is elite.

🔬 How do you find high-end receiving backs in college? It's science.

👩‍⚖️ Will Alvin Kamara be suspended in 2023? His trial date has been set.

👀 Not the best sign for Trey Lance? Did you see that?

📽 He isn't a pajama guy. You gotta grind the film.

💰 How much is a jersey worn in two Super Bowls worth? It ain't cheap.

The NFL offseason is now in full swing with coaching changes, free agency, and the NFL Draft reshaping the 2023 fantasy football landscape. With that in mind, the Fantasy Life squad is breaking down every NFL team to determine what went wrong in 2022 and identify paths to improvement. Lamarca is here to take on our next project, the Jets...

👷 Team Summary

The Jets were not expected to be contenders in 2022, and at the end of the day, they weren’t. However, they got out of the gates red-hot and even though they faded down the stretch, there were still plenty of positives to take away.

The biggest was their defense. Their defense went from one of the worst in football in 2021 to one of the best last season. They ranked dead-last in defensive DVOA two years ago, but they were up to fifth last season. In terms of Pro Football Focus grade, their defense was the best unit in the league.

The Jets also had a massive haul during the 2022 NFL Draft. Sauce Gardner emerged as quite possibly the best cornerback in football during his first professional season, and he took home 46 of 50 possible first-place votes for Defensive Rookie of the Year. Garrett Wilson took home the Offensive Rookie of the Year award for his excellent season at receiver, and Breece Hall would’ve been in the running if not for suffering a season-ending injury. Overall, the Jets became just the third team in NFL history with the Rookie of the Year on both sides of the ball, joining the 1967 Lions and the 2018 Saints.

Ultimately, the Jets feel close to making a return to the postseason for the first time since 2010. Let’s break down how they can get over the hump.

🚧 Fantasy Fixer Recommendations

1. Aaron Rodgers or Bust at QB

The Jets have been looking for a franchise quarterback for basically 50 years. They have had some success here and there – Vinny Testaverde and Chad Pennington both gave the team solid production – but they have struggled to find a consistent, long-term solution.

Making matters worse, the Jets are notoriously impatient at the quarterback position. Geno Smith made 29 starts over two seasons before being banished to the bench, only to re-emerge as a Pro Bowler with Seattle last season. Could he have been the Jets’ answer if he was given a bit more time to develop? We’ll never know for sure.

Sam Darnold had a slightly longer leash as the Jets’ starter, racking up 38 starts over his first three seasons. He was eventually traded to Carolina to make way for Zach Wilson, who seems to be on a similar trajectory.

It’s very possible that none of the quarterbacks the team has drafted were the right picks, but it’s also reasonable to suggest that none of them got a truly fair shake. They spent most of their Jets’ tenure playing with terrible offensive lines and subpar pass-catchers, only to be jettisoned right as things were turning around.

It seems likely that the Jets will have yet another new starting quarterback this season. Not only did Wilson struggle mightily when on the field, but he also struggled in the locker room. The quarterback has to be a leader, and Wilson has not displayed the proper traits for an NFL quarterback. That’s part of the reason why Mike White finished the year as the Jets’ QB. Even though he doesn’t possess nearly the same arm talent, he was much more respected in the locker room.

While it’s easy to say that the Jets should be ready to move on from Wilson, I don’t think the issue is entirely cut-and-dry. They should definitely be willing to explore other options – Wilson has not done nearly enough to guarantee a place on the field next season.

But, they should be looking for the RIGHT option.

And, in my eyes, Aaron Rodgers is the only option that fits the bill.

Rodgers is coming off a subpar season, but he was dealing with his worst supporting cast in ages. He still finished as the No. 14 quarterback per PFF, and he’s just one year removed from winning back-to-back MVPs.

Putting him on the Jets immediately ups their stature to darkhorse title contenders. With their defense, they only need mediocre production from the offense to win a lot of games. Rodgers should be more than capable of providing that with Wilson, Hall, and others catching passes.

Of course, it’s not that simple with Rodgers. While he’s an all-time talent on the field, he’s the GOAT when it comes to being a weirdo. He is reportedly mulling his future during a four-day darkness retreat, so there’s no guarantee he’s even going to be available. Maybe Woody Johnson should spend some time meditating to see if he and Rodgers can get on the same wavelength.

If Rodgers’ chakras don’t align in the right way for New York, they should not panic and sign a lesser quarterback in free agency. The dropoff from someone like Rodgers to Derek Carr is drastic, and one of the biggest mistakes that NFL teams make is overpaying a mediocre quarterback. Carr posted career lows virtually across the board last year, and he finished No. 27 at the position per PFF.

Giving Wilson another chance would not be popular with the fan base, but I firmly believe it’s in the franchise’s best interests if they can’t get Rodgers. Not every QB can be Justin Herbert and dominate in the NFL right away. Some take a bit more seasoning, like Josh Allen, Daniel Jones, or Geno Smith. Wilson was the No. 2 overall pick just two years ago, and if they don’t get Rodgers, they should give him one more chance to prove he’s not a part of their future.