🤓 Fun with small sample sizes

86 days until Chiefs-Lions…

In today’s Fantasy Life newsletter presented by Apollo:

Every offseason free agent signing and draft pick is great … until they aren’t.

Late-round fantasy player x will definitely break out this year … until they don’t.

Small-sample-size excellence is a sign of things to come … until it’s not.

The latter glass-half-full off-season phenomenon can sometimes help predict the future, and other times cause us to make some terrible fantasy decisions.

Look no further than the following statements — which are technically true —, but the small-sample sizes attached to the performances are serious causes for concern when projecting into 2023 and beyond.

💨 Saints WR Rashid Shaheed and Panthers WR Laviska Shenault are two of the NFL’s most efficient WRs

The following list denotes the NFL’s most-efficient WRs in yards per route run with a minimum target threshold of just 30 in 2022 (PFF):

• Tyreek Hill (3.2 yards per route run)

• Laviska Shenault (2.89)

• Justin Jefferson (2.62)

• Rashid Shaheed (2.59)

• Jaylen Waddle (2.59)

• A.J. Brown (2.59)

Shenault’s production was thanks in large part to the time he turned a short screen into a 67-yard score, while Shaheed at least put more consistent goodness on tape.

Both WRs are receiving QB upgrades ahead of 2023; maybe they keep on keeping on with larger workloads.

In the meantime, we probably (read: definitely!) won’t be including the 24-year-old talents in the position’s top-five discussions despite their efficient campaigns in 2022.

😲 Eagles RB Rashaad Penny and Jets RB Breece Hall are the NFL’s two most efficient RBs

Their ranks among 67 RBs with at least a whopping 50 rush attempts last season:

• Yards per carry: Penny: 6.1 (No. 1), Hall: 5.8 (No. 2)

• Yards after contact per carry: Penny: 4.23 (No. 1), Hall: 4.13 (No. 2)

• Explosive runs per carry: Penny: 0.175 (No. 2), Hall: 0.188 (No. 1)

The former Seahawks RB has put together a truly solid highlight mixtape over the years, while Hall routinely made the most out of his rookie-year touches before sadly tearing his ACL in Week 7.

RBs don’t get better as they get older, but maybe just maybe these talented backs will at least have a bit better luck staying on the field next season.

💪 Titans TE Chigoziem Okonkwo is the game’s most efficient TE

Okonkwo only played more than half of the offense’s snaps on just two occasions last season, but he worked as one of the league’s most-efficient TEs in just about any metric:

• PFF receiving grade: 84.6 (No. 2 among 47 qualified TE)

• Yards per route run: 2.61 (No. 1)

• Yards per reception: 14 (No. 1)

• Yards after the catch per reception: 7.8 (tied for No. 2)

• Targets per route run: 26.2% (No. 2)

The Titans consistently went out of their way to design both screens and shot plays for Okonkwo in 2022, and he made a habit of picking up more yards than what was there.

Hell, the man even had a package of plays where he lined up at RB.

Of course, it remains to be seen if Okonkwo’s rookie-year success is a sign that he’ll join the position’s elite in fantasy land, or if he’s simply the 2023 version of Albert O.

😃 Chiefs WR Kadarius Toney is a target hog No. 1 WR

The ex-Giants WR debuted for the Chiefs in Week 9 last season. All he did the rest of the way was demand a target on a whopping 29.4% of his routes – the highest mark among any WR with at least … 25 targets between Week 9 and the Super Bowl.

Toney moves differently than most players with the football in his hands; maybe truthers will finally get a healthy campaign in 2023 to find out once and for all if his small-sample excellence is a sign of great things to come … or if it’s just the result of a small sample.

🤔 Packers QB Jordan Love is the NFL’s most efficient passer

Nobody beat his average of 9.3 yards per attempt … with a minimum of 20 pass attempts!

See, isn’t this fun? Okay, moving on to more important matters.

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🐐 Bill Belichick had some wild praise for one of his longtime players. Not the GOAT you’re thinking.

❓ DeAndre Hopkins reportedly had a successful visit with the Titans. And yet, he’s still visiting this team next.

👀 The Patriots parted ways with this veteran RB. Rhamondre workhorse RB szn incoming?

📺 Dwain McFarland’s TOP matchups to target. This is fantasy GOLD.

🐶 The Browns have a new official dog logo. Not gonna lie, it’s pretty cool.

😬 Minnesota has another contract situation to worry about. Skipping mandatory minicamp doesn’t seem ideal!

😧 Saquon Barkley spoke about his ongoing contract situation. He’s not ruling out WHAT?

🏴‍☠️ The Bucs are bringing back one of the game’s coolest uniforms this season. I, for one, am thrilled.

🤔 Darren Waller vs. Kyle Pitts. Who would you draft?

Fantasy Life senior analyst Ian Hartitz is breaking down all 32 NFL teams over the next two months. Let’s take a look at the Jaguars, who profile as an ascending offense after adding a true No. 1 WR to an already solid group…

QBs

• Trevor Lawrence (Ian’s QB8)

• C.J. Beathard (QB52)

The highs from Lawrence’s breakout second season were truly something. A few memories:

• The comeback performance against the Ravens featured one ridiculous throw after another during the game’s final 15 minutes.

• Eight total TDs, 686 pass yards, and 76 points in a two-week stretch against the Titans and Cowboys demonstrated the upside of the offense.

• Four TDs in 25 minutes of game time helped lead the Jaguars to their biggest comeback in team history during their wild (lol) Wild Card win over the Chargers.

Seriously: The 2021 NFL Draft’s No. 1 overall pick flashed every bit of the “generational” talent he was promised to possess throughout 2022.

The results were predictably a fun time in fantasy land when everything was going right, as only Jalen Hurts (80%), Patrick Mahomes (71%), Josh Allen (69%), and Joe Burrow (44%) finished as a top-six fantasy QB in a higher percentage of their starts than Lawrence (41%).

Still, Lawrence did finish as just the QB11 in fantasy points per game behind guys with lower ADP like Tua Tagovailoa, Daniel Jones, and Geno Smith. The highs were a helluva drug, but he did register eight games that produced under 250 passing yards and one or fewer passing TD – including four of his last five games of the season (including playoffs).

The Jaguars just added a legit No. 1 WR in Calvin Ridley and T-Law is 23 years old entering his second season in Doug Pederson’s system: The future is incredibly bright and it’d make a lot of sense if things are even better in 2023 – just realize this wasn’t a no-doubt top-10 QB in 2022.

• PFF passing grade: 73.1 (No. 15 among 48 qualified QB)

• Completion percentage over expected (CPOE): +1.4% (No. 12)

• EPA per dropback: +0.16 (No. 9)

• Passer rating: 95.2 (No. 10)

• Yards per attempt: 7 (No. 22)

• Adjusted completion rate: 77.7% (No. 8)

• Big-time throw rate: 4.6% (No. 13)

• Turnover-worthy play rate: 3% (No. 19)

Currently priced as the QB8 over at Underdog Fantasy, Lawrence (pick 64) is far closer overall to Joe Burrow (45) and Justin Herbert (54) than the aforementioned Tagovailoa (99), Jones (110) and Smith (115). This is asking a lot out of the third-year signal-caller, who is also being drafted with plenty of talented RBs, WRs and TEs still on the board.

Ultimately, I’m in line with Lawrence’s positional ADP, but haven’t gone out of my way to overly draft him in best ball land unless Calvin Ridley and/or Christian Kirk are already on the squad.

I won’t be surprised if the rising third-year signal-caller’s numbers threaten the position’s top-five QBs this time next year, but the gap between the position’s mid- and low-end QB1s is generally just a bit too wide for my liking.

Listen to Ian Hartitz and Dwain McFarland break down just how good they think this Jaguars offense can be, here!