👀 Four ADP Fallers To Buy Low

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In today’s Fantasy Life newsletter presented by BetMGM:

Fantasy football average draft position (ADP) changes dramatically over the course of 365 days.

And for good reason: Drafters should adjust to the moving landscape and make the best decisions possible based on the new information at hand.

Of course, it’s not like we are all exactly great at consistently predicting the future. Projections go wrong, and the injury gods do their thing: There’s a fine line between adjusting the ranks and overreacting to every tidbit of news.

This is why I like to take annual looks at who the biggest movers in ADP from last offseason to the present day are in an effort to be really sure that the players getting the most or least love truly deserve it.

The following four players stand out among the biggest fallers as potential values ahead of the 2023 season.

🐎 Broncos QB Russell Wilson

• 2022 ADP: QB9, pick 79

• 2023 ADP: QB18, pick 132

Obviously, the “Broncos country, let’s ride” era got off to a bad start in 2022, but a look at 2023 Vegas team totals indicates that a rebound of sorts could be on the horizon.

Rising from the league’s 32nd-ranked scoring offense to a middle-of-the-pack unit still isn’t ideal in fantasy land; just realize this time having faith in Russ and company is also having faith in longtime offensive mastermind Sean Payton.

🐦 Cardinals RB James Conner

• 2022 ADP: RB15, pick 35

• 2023 ADP: RB28, pick 88

The 28-year-old veteran is one of just six RBs to post top-12 fantasy finishes in PPR points per game in both 2021 and 2022; Conner has made up for, at times, meh efficiency with scoring upside and true three-down ability.

Of course, both of those variables aren’t guaranteed inside of a new offense that could flirt with the league’s very worst units as long as Kyler Murray (knee) remains sidelined.

But the Cardinals’ lack of offseason moves at the position still leaves Conner sitting pretty as one of fantasy’s cheapest potential workhorse backs.

💪 Patriots TE Hunter Henry

• 2022 ADP: TE16, pick 152

• 2023 ADP: TE33, pick 223

Henry has rocketed down draft boards after the Patriots signed former Dolphins “TE” Mike Gesicki in free agency.

Never mind that the Penn State product has always been more of a WR than a TE and sure seems to be viewed that way in New England. Regardless, he’ll likely play far more snaps as a true receiver than 2021-22 No. 2 TE Jonnu Smith did.

One year removed from a productive 50-603-9 campaign that produced an overall PPR TE10 finish, Henry profiles as one of the cheapest available starting TEs with at least a decent level of receiving upside available.

🤔 Bills WR Gabriel Davis

• 2022 ADP: WR17, pick 37

• 2023 ADP: WR41, pick 78

Don’t hate the player, hate the ADP.

Still very much locked in as the Bills’ No. 2 WR in an offense led by Josh f*cking Allen, Davis is a prime example of a post-hype buy thanks to the reality that he’s being priced far closer to his floor than his ceiling.

Welcome, degenerates. We don’t unplug just because the NFL does. You’re reading this newsletter because you’re here for the long haul. “What now, Cooter?” Each week I’ll break down ways to survive the off-season.

💪 Survival Tip #13: Bulk Up, Baby!

By now, you’re likely getting a little bit antsy. It’s not quite draft season, but it is June, which means it doesn’t feel illegal to talk about drafting anymore. The sun is out, and it’s time to get our bodies ready! Sort of.

It’s officially Bulking SZN, boys and girls!

With each passing day, we’re losing daylight. If you want to be in tip-top shape come August, it is crucial to get in as many reps as you can now.

Sure, I’m talking a little bit about mock drafting, but the draft is such a small part of the season. We don’t want to skip our metaphorical leg days, after all. We’ve got to hit every facet of fantasy football preparation if we want to bulk up.

Here are a few ways to get those reps in:

💪 “I sent you a trade.”

Does it matter if your commissioner hasn’t reinstated the league yet? No.

Does it matter if you’re in a redraft league with no trading in June? No.

Those are all just lame excuses keeping you from greatness. I didn’t let it stop me:

GET THOSE REPS IN! Your friends will thank you.

💪 Create a new league.

Or don’t, and say you did.

This is all about repetitions, remember? Try joining more mock drafts than you can finish. Get some practice in at the 1.01, the 1.06, and the 1.12 for good measure.

Then, do one more.

And while we’re at it, have you ever announced that you’re starting a new league just for practice?

💪 Tinker tinker tinker.

I don’t care how good of a fantasy football player you are, I refuse to believe that anyone is immune to tinkering.

I just won’t hear of it.

So if we’re going to tinker, we are going to be the best f*cking tinkerers this side of the Mississippi. Set your alarms for Sunday and start overthinking everything.

Are you really all in on Stefon Diggs this year?

Do you really want to draft Zero RB?

Are you really sure you don’t want to join just one more league?

Change your mind a few times.

💪 Side bets

My motto: Side bets are underrated. The camaraderie that comes with putting something on the line is indescribable.

Last week I talked about putting a bottle of tequila on a 4-team best ball league. 

You don’t have to start a best ball league, but I highly recommend brushing up on your side-betting skills. Get a little cocky. Put your money, or tequila, where your mouth is.

We’re bulking up, baby!

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✋ This “TE” is expected to see more usage as a pure receiver. Adjust the ranks.

🥽 Hot Rod is an underrated movie AND the nickname of a recently signed kicker. Rec specs are back in the NFL.

👀 The Giants WR room is pretty, pretty, pretty muddled at the moment. This new face is standing out in minicamp.

🩺 Good injury news for this stud rising third-year RB. A full season of games with good health would be borderline erotic.

🤔 2021’s overall fantasy RB1 is the current RB4 in early ADP. Are you drafting or fading?

🤣 Two best ball sickos walk into a bar. In this case, that bar is a live draft at 3pm ET.

😔 The scariest acronym in fantasy football: RBBC. Coming to an AFC West backfield near you?

Fantasy Life senior analyst Ian Hartitz is breaking down all 32 NFL teams over the next two months. Let’s take a look at the Texans, who have made big-time changes at virtually every fantasy-relevant position…

🔔🐄 RBs

• Dameon Pierce (Ian’s RB21)

• Devin Singletary (RB53)

Pierce, for lack of a better word, is good. Like, really good. This is elite mixtape material right here.

Only 2014 Marshawn Lynch has forced a higher rate of missed tackles per touch over the past 10 years than Pierce did as a rookie last season. Pierce's elusiveness and ability to make defenders miss helped him rack up 1,104 total yards and five total TDs in 13 games, and he was pretty much the only thing worth smiling about in the entire Texans organization in 2022.

There's just one problem.

Pierce was still just the RB21 in PPR points per game (PPG) despite having put forward as good of an effort on the ground as anyone could have possibly hoped. His lackluster fantasy production was due to both playing on a mediocre scoring offense and his coaching staff insisting on keeping Rex Burkhead or Dare Ogunbowale involved on passing downs.

Even with the coaching changes this offseason, it's not necessarily a given that Pierce's role in the passing game will grow, especially after Houston signed Singletary in free agency. Last season, Singletary ranked 12th among 60 qualifying RBs in PFF's pass-blocking metric while Pierce graded out as the sixth-worst pass-blocking RB.

Singletary didn’t receive huge money to suggest that he'll lead the Texans' backfield in 2023, but his $2.5 million guaranteed does indicate that Houston has a role in mind for him as the 1B in this backfield alongside Pierce. The rookie saw a fairly large workload in 2022, especially on early downs, but Singletary could even cut into that.

While I don't hate Pierce, his archetype of an early-down grinder in a bad offense isn’t something I love chasing considering his current ADP in the fifth to sixth round of drafts. I haven’t gone out of my way for Pierce in drafts this offseason because of his potential lack of pass-down work, especially when guys like Rachaad White and James Conner arguably offer better odds of seeing a true three-down role and are going nearly two rounds later.

Meanwhile, Singletary's ADP is outside of the top 150 overall, and he might be one of the last RBs available with some semblance of upside. Singletary might just be one injury away from possessing an even more fantasy-friendly role than what Pierce saw last year. The veteran back is definitely worth a look that late, especially in zero-RB builds. That said, I prefer Jerome Ford and Tyjae Spears as upside dart throws going even later in drafts.