Fantasy Fallout From Tuesday's Trades

Bengals get another RB...

Fantasy Life
Nov. 6, 2024
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With a handful of blockbuster WR trades already in the books, Tuesday's trade deadline lacked any bombshell moves. 

But there were still a handful of swaps that resulted in some mild bumps in fantasy value.

Here's what went down …

Peter Overzet

Khalil Herbert to the Bengals. With Zack Moss (neck) out for the rest of the season, the Bengals solidified their RB room by trading a 2025 7th-round pick to the Bears for Herbert. I wouldn't panic if you are a Chase Brown stan (like we are around here). This is still his backfield. Herbert, though, becomes a premium RB stash with some standalone value and elite contingent upside. 

Mike Williams to the Steelers. Poor Mike Dub was shoved out the door after Aaron Rodgers got back together with his hot ex. The Steelers, who have been in the market for WR help for what feels like an eternity, shipped a 5th-round pick to the Jets for his services. Unfortunately, I don't think there's much fantasy appeal here even after the change of scenery. In New York, feel free to give a slight bump to Xavier Gipson and Malachi Corley (Allen Lazard is on IR), but there isn't much room for supporting roles in the Davante Adams/Garrett Wilson show.

Jonathan Mingo to the Cowboys. Jerry Jones had a fourth-round pick burning a hole in his pocket and sent it to the Panthers for one of the worst WRs in football. Bad franchises stay bad. To make matters worse, Dallas is putting Dak Prescott on IR. He won't be eligible to return until Week 14.

Marshon Lattimore to the Commanders. Washington sent a bevy of picks, including the extra 3rd-round pick they had acquired via the Jahan Dotson trade, to the Saints to solidify their secondary. Matthew is stoked (and so is Mike Evans).

What else is in today’s newsletter?

  1. Freedman’s Favorites: Must-starts for Week 10

  2. Watercooler: Eli Manning does a perfect handstand

FREEDMAN’S FAVORITES

Freedman’s Favorites for Week 10

Here are a couple of Matthew Freedman's favorite fantasy plays for Week 10. Check out his full articles and rankings for more.

Daniel Jones (Giants) vs. Panthers (in Germany)

  • Giants: -6

  • O/U: 41.5

  • TT: 23.75

Daniel Jones is not good. He's probably bad. At best, he's mediocre.

In the first half last week he had zero yards passing on six attempts. Matt Saracen might've done better.

And yet Jones still ended Week 9 as the No. 4 QB with a more-than-respectable 174 yards and 2 TDs passing (8.2 AY/A) and 7-54-1 rushing.

With a median of 6 carries and 20 yards rushing this year, Jones has a decent fantasy floor each week, and this week his advantageous matchup gifts him a cavernous ceiling, as the Panthers are No. 31 in defensive dropback EPA (0.238, per RBs Don't Matter) and defensive pass DVOA (34.4%, per FTN).

If there's a place to back Jones, it's when he's not at MetLife Stadium.

  • Jones at Home: 14-21 ATS (-23.5% ROI) | 12-22-1 ML (-25.3% ROI)

  • Jones Anywhere Else: 21-14 ATS (15.7% ROI) | 13-22 ML (1.1% ROI)

I probably won't want to watch this game—especially since it's the early one in Germany—but if I happen to turn it on I don't expect Jones' performance to hurt my eyes.

Jalen Tolbert (Cowboys) vs. Eagles

  • Cowboys: +7.5

  • O/U: 42

  • TT: 17.25

This one is disgusting, I know. It's what Ian Hartitz and Dwain McFarland might call a "sicko start."

I have the dropoff from QB Dak Prescott (hamstring, IR) to backup Cooper Rush as -5.5 points against the spread (per our Fantasy Life QB ATS Value Chart), so the entire Cowboys offense receives a significant baseline downgrade.

Comparing this game's betting lines from the lookahead market to the current consensus, we can see generally how much of a downgrade Prescott to Rush is.

  • Lookahead Market: Cowboys +2.5 | 48.5 O/U | Implied Total: 23

  • Current Consensus: Cowboys +7.5 | 42 O/U | Implied Total: 17.25

But the Cowboys might be without No. 1 WR CeeDee Lamb (shoulder), who exited last week early with an injury, and they're already missing No. 2 WR Brandin Cooks (knee, IR).

And that could mean extra targets for Tolbert, who has steadily improved since his underwhelming 2022 rookie season (0.4 targets per game, 4.0 yards per target) and is now a viable desperado flier (5.4 targets per game, 8.2 yards per target).

With enhanced volume, Tolbert could provide some underappreciated production against the Eagles, who could once again be without No. 1 CB Darius Slay (groin).

MORE OF FREEDMAN’S FAVORITES:

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AROUND THE WATERCOOLER

The latest fantasy nuggets, silliness, and NFL gossip from our merry band of football nerds:

🤝 Who are players to pick up and trade for? Ian and Dwain have several players to target.

🤸 Eli Manning got in on the headstand cellys. Incredible form.

📈 This is good news for Brock Bowers and Jakobi Meyers. LFG.

🎰 This is both funny and sad. Jermaine Burton spotted at the casino.

💪 Steelers weren't done after Mike Williams. They add an EDGE.

IAN’S MANIFESTO

Ian’s Week 10 Manifesto

  • By Ian Hartitz

Every week I will be going through 10 key storylines ahead of all the NFL action, focusing on key fantasy-related trends, the week's biggest mismatches, my personal rankings of every game, bold predictions, and much more.

What are the rest-of-season expectations for the traded WRs?

The REAL big moves at the trade deadline occurred a few weeks ago, and we've accordingly already seen some early returns. This begs the question: What should we expect moving forward from the trio of big-name WRs traded over the past month?

Chiefs WR DeAndre Hopkins: The 32-year-old veteran dialed back the clock on Monday night, racking up 8 receptions for 86 yards and a pair of scores in the "Rashee Rice" role that is making a push for the single-most fantasy-friendly spot in the game. While the artist known as Nuk might not overtake Travis Kelce as Patrick Mahomes' favorite target anytime soon, it's hard to not be excited about the possibilities of the team's primary underneath/intermediate WR considering the returns this season. Expectations should be held in check ahead of this week's matchup with Patrick Surtain and the Broncos, but get your popcorn ready after that for dates with the Bills, Panthers, and the Raiders. Hopkins enters the weekly top-20 conversation, and it wouldn't be shocking to see him zoom into WR1 territory in plus matchups.

Bold predictions for Week 10

Every week I'll put my reputation on the line regarding a handful of players I believe could outperform their general fantasy-related expectations. The majority will NOT work out—they wouldn't be bold otherwise—but will that stop me? Hell, no!

Without further adieu: Let's get weird.

  • Ravens TE Mark Andrews: The potential absence of Isaiah Likely (hamstring) could finally leave Andrews with the sort of full-time role that simply hasn't always been on the table this season. The longtime stud TE looked GOOD last week and now gets a Bengals pass defense that Lamar Jackson shredded for 348 yards and 4 TDs back in Week 5. I'm calling for 9 receptions, 111 yards, and 2 TDs for the Ravens' veteran TE.

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