🌋 The Elite RBs ERUPT In Week 8

Tony Pollard dressed up as a RB1 for Halloween...

In today’s Fantasy Life Newsletter presented by BetMGM:

The NFL has a funny way of taking our precious narratives and obliterating them to pieces.

Through the first seven weeks of the season, teams averaged only 21.7 points per game (the lowest mark since 2009). 

We spent the past couple of weeks trying to make sense of that trend...

Former elite QBs like Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers started to decline. Injuries wiped out a slew of skill position superstars and offensive lines. The widespread adoption of defensive concepts like the Cover 2 have limited explosive plays.

And while all of those things may be true, Week 8 proved to be a powder keg of points waiting to explode. Multiple matchups sailed well over their projected total:

• The Dolphins and Lions combined for 58 points (52 over/under)

• The Falcons and Panthers combined for 71 points (41 over/under)

• The Cardinals and Vikings combined for 60 points (48.5 over/under)

• The Bears and Cowboys combined for 78(!) points (42.5 over under)

The winning team in the Millymaker contest on DraftKings scored 272.68 points and featured 6 different players who scored 30 or more points:

The moral of the story? Don't ever get comfortable with thinking you have this league figured out. It always finds ways to humble you. 

Read on for the top performers from Week 8, overreactions, a MNF preview, and early bets to make for Week 9...

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💰 Eliot Crist is betting : Mike Thomas Over 24.5 -115

With Ja'Marr Chase out with a hip injury, expect Thomas to replace him and play a majority of the snaps. On the season, the Bengals are playing 11 personnel (3WR) on 77% of snaps and have had at least two WRs on the field on 95% of snaps this season.

With Tyler Boyd locked into his slot, role Thomas should be on the field for a Bengals team throwing 69% of the time in the last three weeks. We have Thomas projected for 51.9 receiving yards (a 10.1% edge on his prop line), which is the highest of any prop on the day.

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Every Monday, Pete will share his six big takeaways from the week's action compliments of our friends over at Bud Light. Let's crack open that six pack, Pete...

🍺 1. AJ Brown, grown ass man

The Eagles steamrolled the Steelers 35-13 in the Pennsylvania Bowl, and almost all of the damage was done by Brown in the first half. He scored 3 TDs before halftime, including this beautiful TD and hilariously disrespectful celebration. Brown finished the day with 6-156-3, and it's hard not to feel like there could have been even more if the Steelers stayed in the game. Roger is taking notice. 

🍺 2. Tony Pollard delivers

We drooled over this matchup for Pollard all week, and boy, did he not disappoint. He rushed for 131 yards and 3 TDs on 14 attempts and pitched in 1-16 through the air. There's only one back on the roster who can do this, and his name isn't Zeke. If you're hoping this results in an expanded workload going forward, don't hold your breath.

🍺 3. Panthers fantasy magic

The Panthers lost this game in truly heartbreaking fashion after kicker Eddie Pineiro missed an XP in regulation and a FG in overtime that would have sealed the game, but this is a fantasy newsletter and D'Onta Foreman (26-118-3) and DJ Moore (6-151-1) both balled out. The P.J. Walker hail mary bomb to DJM that sent the game to OT even impressed Patrick Mahomes.

🍺 4. The Dolphins duo is a fantasy cheat code

What left is there to say about Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle? Week in and week out these two get funneled targets and deliver even more points after the catch. Waddle hogged the TDs (8-106-2), but Hill (12-188) continued to be a PPR machine. It's not just hyperbole to say these two are on pace for the best WR duo season of all time.

🍺 5. CMC looks real good in that Niners uniform

I guess you could say McCaffrey is fully acclimated in the new offense, eh?

CMC exploded for a 40+ point fantasy day where he contributed in all facets of the game. Hopefully this performance puts to rest any lingering doubts about his upside in this offense. He's the RB1 rest of season.

🍺 6. A big day for elite RBs

Not to be outdone by CMC, both Derrick Henry and Alvin Kamara looked like their vintage selves. 

Kamara had a monster day on both the ground (18-62-1) and the air (9-96-2), while Henry tattooed the Texans with a whopping 32 carries for 219 yards and 2 TDs. 

At the start of the season, many of the Round 1 RBs were looking like busts, but they roared back into relevance in Week 8. 

👋 Elijah Moore is done with Zach Wilson. Oof, this is tough to watch.

📚 What's up with the Steelers? They need to hit the books.

1⃣ Fade this RB if you're playing Chubb in DFS tonight. There can only be one. 

🏊 A wild story involving an indoor pool, a city inspector, and the Bills/Chiefs. Trust me, just watch it.

💸 If you let AJ Brown leave...you get what you deserve.

💀 Oh man, another Russell Wilson diss from a former teammate. Ouch.

👟 The QB buying a new pair of shoes after each game. Well played.

🤔 The data says to play this WR in DFS tonight. He's really under the radar, but it just might work.

We're humans who play fantasy football, which means we are prone to overreact. In this weekly series, Kendall will lead us in overreacting to Sunday's action...

🏆 See you in the Super Bowl, Eagles

This may not even be the biggest overreaction based on what we watched in Week 8? Here let’s try again — THE EAGLES WILL NEVER LOSE AGAIN. Go ahead and glance at the Eagles’ remaining schedule and tell me when they take their first loss. They face the Texans, Commanders, Colts, Packers, and Titans in the next five weeks. Sure, anything can happen on any given Sunday in the NFL, but the Eagles are so damn good.

AJ Brown finished with six catches for 156 yards and a career-high three touchdowns on Sunday. Jalen Hurts finished 19 of 28 for 285 yards and four touchdowns (no interceptions). This is a classic example of building around your quarterback. Who would have thought giving Hurts an uber-talented wide receiver in Brown would bring out the best in him? The same thing happened when the Bills traded for Stefon Diggs, and we saw Josh Allen’s true potential. In their first year together, Diggs led the league in receptions (127) and receiving yards (1,535). Not to mention he got Pro Bowl nods in 2020 and 2021. 

Going into Week 8, the Eagles’ average margin of victory was 9.3 points per game. That’s more than double the conference’s next-best team in the Dallas Cowboys, who sat at 4.2 points per game.

Oh, and you thought they were done before the trade deadline? Acquiring veteran defensive end Robert Quinn from the Chicago Bears was a message to the league. They’re really coming for it all.

😡 Jerry Jones hates your fantasy team (and rosters Ezekiel Elliott, probably)

Enjoy it while you can, Tony Pollard managers. No, not even 131 rushing yards and three touchdowns on 14 carries can change Cowboys owner Jerry Jones’ mind on what the backfield will look like moving forward. And to be very clear, I am NOT saying bench Ezekiel Elliott — but it would be cool to get Pollard more involved.

Jones commented on where Elliott stands after the game: "We go as Zeke goes … He's as important as he was before the game." 

Pollard is a very efficient running back for the Cowboys. It was his second 100-yard game of the year. This season Elliott has not hit the 100-yard mark in seven starts.

DO NOT BE MAD AT ME, BE MAD AT THE NUMBERS.

To try and make sense of it, Elliott simply has the trust and support of everyone in the building. They made Elliott the highest-paid running back in the NFL — a base salary of $12.4 million this season confirms that it’s his backfield. It’s okay to be disappointed. Just remember that Pollard will be a free agent after this season, which could make things interesting if he continues to play at this level.

We have a mildly interesting divisional battle on tap for MNF, with the Browns hosting the Bengals as 3.5-point home underdogs in a game with a respectable 45 point over/under.

The Bengals will be without Ja'Marr Chase for this one, but otherwise these teams enter the game healthy. 

Here's everything we like tonight from a fantasy, DFS, and betting perspective:  All odds via BetMGM

Timing is crucial when it comes to sports betting. Lines get released late on Sunday night, and every Monday our new betting specialist Matt LaMarca drops by to give you his first look at the betting markets.  

💸 Vikings @ Commanders (+3)

• Pick: Commanders +3

The sharps faded the Vikings pretty hard in Week 8. The Cardinals received 60% of the bets and 80% of the dollars in that matchup, making them one of the heaviest-bet sides of the entire week. We all know how that went. The Cardinals had multiple chances to secure a cover, but a muffed punt, two interceptions, and a turnover on downs proved to be too much to overcome.

However, the fact remains that the Vikings are an underwhelming 6-1 football team. They narrowly outgained the Cardinals by six yards, which is not going to help them much in the yardage differential category. They entered Week 8 just 27th in the league in that department, which suggests they’ve been extremely fortunate.

Now, the Vikings have to travel to Washington in Week 9, and they’re listed as three-point road favorites. Even though the sharps were unsuccessful in fading the Vikings last week, I expect them to be on that train once again. The Commanders have now won three straight games, including two since Taylor Heinicke took over at quarterback. I expect this line to dip under the key number of three before kickoff, so locking them in early is not a bad idea.

💸  Rams @ Buccaneers (-2.5)

• Pick: Buccaneers -2.5

Things have gone from bad to worse for both of these franchises. These are the past two Super Bowl champions, but at this point, both teams will be happy to squeak into the postseason.

The Rams’ record isn’t quite as bad as the Bucs’, but they have had some major issues. Their offensive line has struggled to protect Matthew Stafford, who had been sacked on 8.9% of his dropbacks entering Week 8. That’s the worst mark of his career, and he was sacked on just 4.8% of his dropbacks in his first year with LA.

Cooper Kupp has been able to cover up a lot of the Rams’ offensive woes, but he suffered an injury late against the 49ers. Sean McVay told reporters that the team “dodged a bullet,” but we’re still unclear about the severity. It’s possible that he’s going to have to sit out a week or two, even if it isn’t a major injury.

Without Kupp, I’m not sure how the Rams will move the ball consistently. Kupp had 79 of their 223 scrimmage yards vs. the 49ers, and he entered the week with at least 350 more scrimmage yards than every other player on the roster.

Things obviously haven’t gone well in Tampa Bay, but their game vs. the Ravens was a bit closer than the final score indicates. This line could easily move above a field goal if Kupp is ruled out, so we could get some significant line value by acting early.