🚫 Don't Double Count These 2 RBs

All I want for the holidays is an injury-free roster…

In today’s Fantasy Life Newsletter presented by Webex:

Sometimes, we’ll see a player and their matchup at the start of the week and get excited.

Whether it be because of their workload or how well a similar position fared against the defense they’ll face, it all lines up to be a smash spot. And then, we’ll get even more “good” news that’ll factor into our roster decisions. Last week is an excellent example.

The forecast in Charlotte ahead of the Panthers’ bout against the Falcons was bleak. Actually, ‘wet’ would be the better descriptor. Regardless, the anticipated shift to a run-heavy approach for both teams made Bijan Robinson a popular play in DFS.

The result? An Arthur Smith rug pull for the ages, as Robinson touched the ball the fewest times in any game this season (minus ‘The Headache’ game).

Fantasy managers tend to double-count weather narratives when reviewing rankings or projections. It’s fine to use them as tie-breakers, but in two cases this weekend, let’s stick to what we know.

💪 Jaylen Warren, Steelers

The Steelers host the Bengals this afternoon in their divisional rematch. However, rain was in the forecast to start the week. Plus, Najee Harris missed practice on Tuesday with a knee issue. Those two pieces of information likely sent Jaylen Warren managers to the moon. But I’m here to toss some water (not rainwater, to be clear) on the idea of going all in on Pittsburgh’s RB2.

As of this writing, the rain won’t come until well after the game is over. And Harris got full practices to close out the week. Accordingly, our rankers have the duo as mid-range RB3 options for the fantasy semi-finals.

Cincinnati is missing one of their best run defenders.

They just got trucked by Ty Chandler for 24.7 PPR points a week ago. And Harris and Warren combined for 161 scrimmage yards the last time they faced. But with the workload still split, starting either in Week 16 is a bet on who winds up getting into the end zone.

😤 Isiah Pacheco, Chiefs

Isiah Pacheco returned to practice on Wednesday, and Jerick McKinnon (groin) closed out the week with DNPs. And, of course, the elements are lending further credence to Pacheco returning to the Top 12.

The wind? Not a factor. At 13 mph from the WNW, the airflow aligns with the stadium’s 260-degree orientation, generating either a tail or headwind. No crossbreeze. No problem.

But the rain and potential snow will have folks looking at Pacheco as the only play. However, at 0.02 inches per hour, we won’t even notice the precipitation as we’re watching the game. Field degradation (the Chiefs play on grass) is possible as the rain will start on Christmas Eve, but per league regulations, the ground can be covered by a tarp up until 90 minutes before kickoff.

Pacheco was an RB1 before his injury, for sure. But with how well Clyde Edwards-Helaire has performed lately, the former first-rounder can fill the pass-game void should McKinnon sit. And Rashee Rice’s fully-fledged WR1 status will also take some looks away from Pacheco. So, with this being his first game back, let’s not bank on the weather being the reason for a Pacheco bounce-back game.

🛠️ Everything you need for Week 16

For everything else you need for the Week 16 Saturday slate—including our Inactives page—you can get to your destination with a mere click of a button.

See our suite of tools to get you ready for today’s slate below:

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Debating between two guys on your roster? Need someone to break the tie for you? Matthew Freedman, Dwain McFarland, and Ian Hartitiz dove deep into their rankings to find a few players they’re willing to push into their starting lineup for Week 16.

Happy holidays!

It’s time to get in that last-minute shopping, wrap presents, and spend some well-deserved time with family and friends.

Oh, wait. It’s also Week 16!

The fantasy semi-finals will be happening throughout the weekend, with games kicking off over the next three days. We know you’ll be busy, so we got your teams covered. Our rankers got together to find some of the top players they’re higher on than consensus for this weekend’s action. So, before you frantically set your lineup, check out what the guys have to say.

🐬 RB - De’Von Achane (Dolphins) vs. Cowboys

The rookie has cooled off after averaging 31.8 points per game in his first four NFL contests playing at least 35% of the snaps. Over the last two games, his average has dropped to 10.7, and the fantasy industry is pushing him down the ranks.

My question is, why? Surely, no reasonable ranker expected Achane to continue at that unsustainable pace—regression was always inevitable. Hmm. It must be due to his reduced workload. 

Oh, wait. That hasn’t changed either. Achane averaged 15.3 opportunities per contest from Week 3 to Week 5. Over the last two games, he averaged 14.

So, the last two games really just provide us with a realistic floor for Achane when he doesn’t hit home-run bombs all game. However, we shouldn’t confuse that with his ability to deliver an elite-ceiling game.

For this reason, it is challenging for me to rank guys like Bijan Robinson, Joe Mixon, and Breece Hall ahead of Achane. They all have questions, and none have demonstrated the upside we have seen from Achane.

The matchup isn’t optimal against Dallas, but the recipe for beating the Cowboys' pass rush is to punch them in the face with the run game. The Bills reminded everyone of that in Week 15 when James Cook went nuclear for 36 fantasy points. The Dolphins have the fourth-highest team total on the slate in a game with massive shootout potential.

I have Achane 10 spots ahead of the Fantasy Life consensus in our flex rankings, making him a must-start as a top-20 play.

• Dwain

⭐ RB Ezekiel Elliott (Patriots) at Broncos

Once again, I’m the highest ranker on Elliott, who is my RB13. Gross, I know. But this is all about usage (and a little about matchup).

Elliott disappointed last week, but I expect No. 1 RB Rhamondre Stevenson (ankle) to miss another game, given that he didn’t practice at all last week and is yet to get in a session this week. Hence, Zeke.

Since Week 13, when Stevenson exited with an injury after 17 snaps, Elliott has an 83% snap rate, 74% rush share, 66% route rate, and 24% target share, which he has leveraged into 278 yards and a TD on 50 carries and 19 targets.

Plus, the Broncos are No. 2 in most fantasy points allowed to RBs (26.3 per game).

It could be a lot worse.

• Freedman

😍 The Christmas present everyone wanted. Love/Hate for Week 16!

💲 The league fines Arthur Smith for ‘The Headache Game’. Can we also fine him for the fantasy points we missed out on?

🤔 Stacking Dallas and Miami like everyone else? How to differentiate your DFS builds.

🏆 Battling for a berth to the fantasy championship? Kendall is here to help.

💰 Saturday NFL games? An extra opportunity to cash in on anytime TD bets.

🤝 Speaking of extra opportunities…we have a loaded tracker of Saturday bets and Pick’em plays, all for FREE.

🥇 Looking for the best bets for all the CFB action this weekend? Check out our notes before heading to the books.

👁️ Seeing the future. Predicting the first round of 2024 fantasy drafts.

💪 Colts' RB1 logs another full practice. He's back. Just in time.

📝 Is the Browns resurgence legit? Is James Cook a true RB1? Answers for ALL of your Week 16 questions.

😥 DeVonta Smith hanging out on a Friday. Wait. Hanging out?! He’s not practicing??!?

✍ Stefon Diggs ready for a bounceback? The data suggests it’s coming.

Finding the right player stacks can be the key to building a profitable roster in DFS. If you want to get the jump on this weekend, James McCool from Paydirt DFS has the data to guide you for Week 16.

🥇 Popular option: Minnesota Vikings

📝 Facts:

• With Nick Mullens at QB last week, the Vikings ran a slower offense than they have most of the year with a PPMOE of -.28 (average of -.11) while also having a slightly lower pass rate of 58%, which likely means slightly lower ceilings for the main Vikings receivers.
   

• After having just a 17% route participation in week 14, Justin Jefferson had a 97% rate in week 15 and a 30% target share, both in line with expectations for the star wideout, and we should expect him to have slate-breaking upside, so long as Mullens can support it.
   

• Since week 10, Jordan Addison has far surpassed teammate KJ Osborn in nearly every utilization category, including TPRR (16%/11%), Air Yards (31%/13%), and producing over 3x more fantasy points per game (12.4/3.8).

📊 Stack Info (DraftKings)

💰 Salary and projections:

• Combo 1 (Mullens/Jefferson/Hockenson): With a salary of $19,200, this lineup has a Median score of 47.9. This suggests a high level of expected performance, reflected in its substantial salary.
   

• Combo 2 (Mullens/Jefferson/Addison): Priced at $19,400, it presents a close Median score of 46.1. The slight increase in salary compared to Combo 1 correlates with a very slight decrease in expected median performance.
   

• Combo 3 (Mullens/Addison/Hockenson): The most affordable at $17,100, it shows a Median score of 41.6, the lowest of the three, which aligns with its lower price.

1️⃣ Combo 1: Top Tier with Ownership

A strong contender for those looking to optimize for a high median performance with a good chance of a top finish and a high return on investment.

Suitable for those willing to allocate a significant portion of their budget for a robust combination.

2️⃣ Combo 2: Strong Medians with Value

Presents a slight variation from Combo 1 with a small drop in the Median score and top finish probability.

However, its 3x% Return remains attractive, making it a valuable option for those looking for performance with a slight cost saving.

3️⃣ Combo 3: Budget Choice with Upside

This combination is the most budget-conscious, offering a lower Median score but maintaining a competitive 3x% Return. It's an interesting choice for players who wish to save on salary while still seeking a decent chance for a high return.

The Vikings looked fine in the first full week with Mullens under center, with good volume (38 dropbacks) and a strong yards per attempt of 9.18. Assuming Jefferson is fully healthy, the Vikings’ stacks are looking solid.

However, there will be ownership here, so keep that in mind when you are thinking about how to build around these stacks.

An all-encompassing Week 16 preview breaking down EVERY game with an array of advanced analytics as well as devoted film analysis from a champion expert in the field who just so happens to also be a rather great writer — is that something you might be interested in?

Well, good, because Legendary Upside founder and Fantasy Life partner Pat Kerrane is here to spread the good word ahead of Week 16…

It’s been a rough few weeks for Justin Fields, who was stifled by Brian Flores’ blitz-happy defense, rebounded a bit against the Lions, and then cratered against the Browns to a 13th percentile mark in EPA per play and a fourth percentile success rate.

But Fields now gets a pristine bounce-back spot against a Cardinals defense that has been disastrous against the pass, ranking 31st in EPA allowed per play and dead last in success rate. The Cardinals’ secondary is a major weakness, they can’t get pressure, and they don’t blitz. If you’re a mercurial downfield shottaker… that's the combination you want to see.

But the good news doesn’t stop there. The Cardinals are also terrible against the run, ranking 29th in rushing success rate.

Given Fields’ elite rushing ability, this is about as good a matchup as he can get. And remember, while Fields can add explosive fantasy value through the air, he’s not all that special as a pure passer. His efficiency has been in line with Kenny Pickett's this year.

Luke Getsy has a history of forgetting about Fields' legs. But his memory has improved in recent weeks; he must be taking Gingko or something. Since returning from injury, Fields has had at least five designed rushes in every game, including a career-high 14 in Week 11.

And we should see plenty of overall rushing attempts against the Cardinals’ run funnel defense. Teams are averaging just a 55% pass rate against the Cardinals, with a -4% PROE. They are one of the biggest run funnels in the league.

With a combination of designed runs and explosive downfield passing potential, Fields is shaping up as a fantasy playoff hero.

If betting on his receivers to come along for the ride, efficiency is crucial. We can’t count on a ton of passing volume this week. Fortunately, D.J. Moore has been a highly efficient downfield receiver, posting 2.23 YPRR. He’s running hot with a 10.4 YPT, but he’s also seeing a 28% target share with an elite 44% air yard share… so he’s getting highly valuable looks. Moore is a WR1.

Cole Kmet has also been a strong target earner this year with a much shallower 5.7 aDOT. If the Bears limit passing volume, he’ll be more affected than Moore. Still, he’s in a great matchup, making him a TE1.