Don't Believe The Gronk "Retirement"

Would you rather party in South Beach or practice in 100+ degree heat and humidity...

In today’s Fantasy Life Newsletter presented by Exec Sum:

So Rob Gronkowski reportedly "retired" yesterday:

But I'm not buying it.

OTAs and training camp are a grind, especially for a 33-year-old TE with plenty of tread on the tires. "Retiring" now gives Gronk a decent excuse to skip all of that and return when we're not talkin' about practice anymore.

Even Gronk's agent, Drew Rosenhaus, isn't buying it.

No one is:

If anything, we should be excited to get more of a discount on Gronk in fantasy. He was going around pick 112 in Underdog Drafts as the TE11 off the board. I wouldn't be surprised to see him drop 2-3 rounds given the announcement, though savvy drafters won't let him fall beyond that.

I'd be remiss not to point you in the direction of some Gronk career retrospectives, even though I imagine we'll be updating some of these numbers by the end of the season.

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🐶 Could a Browns RB be traded? They have the best three-man backfield in the league, so moving one would make sense.

⚖️ More updates on the Deshaun Watson case. We're getting close to the suspension announcement.

⚡ Trouble in Tennessee? Reports continue to be concerning about their rookie WR.

🚑 The odd man out in the Patriots backfield. One of their backs might open the season on the PUP list.

🧐 Which Green Bay and Kansas City WRs should you draft? Mike Clay investigates.

🛍️ It's a hard knock life for rookies. Garrett Wilson isn't ready.

The Fantasy Life team can't stop drafting teams on Underdog, so from time to time, our contributors will share with you the players they've drafted the most. Today Kevin Thompkins tells us about an RB and two WRs he can't stop drafting...

J.D. McKissic (RB55) - In a RB room made ambiguous by Commanders head coach Ron Rivera, McKissic should provide a ton of standalone and contingent PPR value for fantasy managers this season. In fact, McKissic’s contract was matched by the Commanders after he initially agreed to terms with the Bills so that should tell you that the Commanders value his skill set and plan to use him extensively in 2022.

Typically when the RB room is up in the air as far as who is getting work, I’ll draft the team’s back that’s going the latest. Over the past two seasons, McKissic has been RB26 and RB27 in PPR fantasy points per game (FPPG).

While McKissic is never going to be a rushing threat in this offense, his target volume is what makes him a great value. In 2020, he led all RBs in targets and then averaged just shy of five targets per game last season. With the average value of a target (1.57 PPR points) higher than a rushing attempt (.60 PPR points), these "floor play" backs can be quite valuable if they’re in an insulated third-down and two-minute role like McKissic.

Tee Higgins (WR10) - Higgins, in a nutshell, is access to a productive Bengals offense at a much cheaper price point than consensus first-round fantasy draft pick and top Bengals WR Ja'Marr Chase. I would liken Chase and Higgins to be more of a 1A and 1B duo than a strict WR1 and WR2.

Last season, Higgins outproduced Chase in Weeks 11-18 after the Bengals’ Week 10 bye — see below for stats from our own Sam Wallace:

Higgins

- 18.4 points/game- 7.6 targets- 5.6 receptions- 94.3 rec yards- 23% target share

Chase

- 17.1 points/game- 6.9 targets- 4.6 receptions- 77.5 rec yards- 21% target share

Helping out the offense will be an upright Joe Burrow at QB with numerous additions to the offensive line in free agency like Alex Cappa, La’El Collins, and Ted Karras. Higgins is an easy way to play the Bengals WR room with legitimate overall WR1 upside you can select in the late-second or early-third round of drafts.

D.J. Moore (WR17) - Love somebody like I love Moore. Seriously. He’s going at the beginning of the fourth round of Underdog best ball drafts on average. Public perception is still way too low on him and people love to project his team’s QB situation as a way to push him down when we’re talking about elite fantasy WRs.

Moore has averaged 1,100 receiving yards and 140 targets in the last three seasons with such stellar QBs as Cam Newton, Kyle Allen, Will Grier, Teddy Bridgewater, and Sam Darnold throwing him the ball. In Weeks 1-4 last season, Moore was WR4 in FPPG (22.4) while averaging almost 11 targets per game and 99 yards receiving per game plus three of his four total touchdowns to boot. A small sample size but Moore has this kind of upside.

“But what about Christian McCaffrey?”

Moore’s best statistical season where he had a 23% target share and was WR16 in FPPG was the same season that McCaffrey put up his legendary season of 29.5 FPPG and almost single-handedly won people their fantasy leagues in 2019. The two can co-exist.

For me, Moore is an easy pick in the late-third round or early-fourth where all that has to happen is a modest QB upgrade for him to unlock his immense fantasy potential even further.

In this series, our contributors will disclose their favorite players and tell us why they can't stop drafting them. Today, we have our ranker extraordinaire, Waz, disclosing his love for Mike Williams...

My Guy: Mike Williams

Underdog Fantasy ADP: 28.9 (WR 13)

Why: 

In their first season under offensive coordinator Joe Lombardi, the Chargers logged a 55% success rate on 390 pass attempts to their WRs, which accounted for 59% of their total pass attempts. With that volume and pass rate, Mike Williams commanded a 19% target share (129 targets) and posted career-high numbers in receptions (76) and receiving yards (1,146).

The connection between Williams and Justin Herbert has strengthened since Herbert's 2020 rookie season. According to Sharp Football Analysis, Herbert's passer rating when targeting Williams increased from 98.9 (2020) to 109.0 (2021) thanks to an additional 53 more targets, 12 of which led to the red zone. Williams should continue to see increased red zone looks, especially if a potentially reduced workload for Austin Ekeler includes his passing work.

Now, Keenan Allen has constantly been the lead dog in the Chargers' passing offense, and it's worth noting that my affection for Williams doesn't warrant a complete dismissal of Allen. He's an elite talent and will continue to offer elevated floor production thanks to the Chargers' scheme and Herbert behind center.

But here's a pro tip you didn’t ask for:

A safe floor doesn't win you fantasy football championships. Taking risks, chasing upside, and trusting your gut on trend analysis (no matter how small the sample size) are a few of the many ingredients that do.

Unfortunately, I'm not the first, nor will I be the last, to make the Williams > Allen argument. The hype has already reached every surface inside the echo chamber. Over the last four weeks, Williams’ ADP has climbed 6.9 spots, from 35.8 (WR15) to 28.9 (WR13), and this surge places him directly behind Keenan Allen's ADP of 27.9 (WR12).

Still, don't fret! As we get closer to the start of the season, I believe consensus will be taking Allen at least a half-round earlier than Williams and offering you aspiring value hounds a treat. If that doesn't happen and they consistently remain side-by-side in ADP, ask yourself who has the bigger dog in them and defend your answer by drafting Williams over Allen.

Disclosures: I suppose some bias for Williams could be stemming from spending a good chunk of time recently researching Week 17 best ball stacks and offering notable attention to the Chargers-Rams matchup while acknowledging Williams’ subtle contrarian edge over Allen. Although, if I'm being honest with my biases, I really am just a sucker for drafting fantasy football championship teams.

The season is fast approaching, which means it is time for us to get to know all of these NFL teams and who we should be drafting and fading after a busy offseason. In today's team preview, Jonathan Fuller previews the Colts...

The Colts finished last year with a 9-8 record and a season-defining loss to the Jaguars that knocked them out of a playoff spot. This offseason feels eerily similar to last with a new veteran QB in town, a talented roster, and lofty expectations. The question remains whether it will all come together in a way that allows this team to compete in a loaded AFC.

HC Frank Reich is returning for his fifth season at the helm but finds himself on an increasingly hot seat. If the Colts significantly underperform their current projected win total of 9.5 it could be a complete overhaul in Indy going into 2023.

⚙️ Offseason changes

• Traded away Carson Wentz to the Commanders for a handful of picks (honestly a great haul for GM Chris Ballard)

• Traded for Matt Ryan in a clear win-now move

• Drafted WR Alec Pierce and TE Jelani Woods with their first two picks to add pass-catching talent for their new QB

• Bolstered the defense by acquiring DE Yannick Ngakoue and signing CB Stephon Gilmore

✨ Team vibes

The situation in Indy can best be described as cautiously optimistic. The fanbase is still recovering from the failed Wentz experiment, but this is clearly the most talented roster in the division, and making the playoffs should be the expectation. Matt Ryan is a significant upgrade from a leadership perspective and should provide much more reliable play on the field as well.

The Colts have premium players at RB and WR with Jonathan Taylor and Michael Pittman going in the top 30 picks, but then a huge gap down to the next player in Nyheim Hines who is being drafted in the 12th round. Whoever emerges as the second pass-catching option should end up being a great value. Parris Campbell and Alec Pierce look like the most likely candidates but your guess is as good as mine for who it ends up being.

🎯Draft targets

• Jonathan Taylor (Underdog ADP: 1)

• Michael Pittman (Underdog ADP: 30)

• Nyheim Hines (Underdog ADP: 136)

👋Draft fades

• Matt Ryan (Underdog ADP: 158)