Don't Overreact

Pump the brakes on a buzzy RB?

Author

Christopher Allen
July 25, 2025

"Don't overreact."

Your favorite fantasy analyst is going to say this or some version of it from now until the start of the season. It's inevitable. 

Training camp season is in full effect. Videos from practices or pressers flood our timelines. The volume of information alone is enough to make any news item seem newsworthy. But, as some responses you might see indicate, we don't need to focus on everything. 

No, the RB running through the ladder drill in shorts isn't going to be "a problem."

No, that receiver did not "break his CB's ankles" in 1-on-1s. 

Yes, I can actually believe that other franchises passed on your team's prospect.

The sarcasm level may vary, but you get the idea. We've got to sift through the noise to find the signal. Dwain and Freedman did some of this for us during their projections debate regarding Omarion Hampton's upcoming workload.

Hampton's ADP has been on the rise since Najee Harris decided to become an explosives expert. And HC Jim Harbaugh's "he's healing" response didn't provide much clarity. But, as Dwain and Freedman highlighted, Hampton will split time with Harris.

Even as J.K. Dobbins was piling up 100-yard games and multi-TD outings last season, Gus Edwards still took 33.0% of the designed rushing attempts. And looking back on OC Greg Roman's history, it's hard to find an RB with the opportunity and production to outkick their ADP.

To be clear, none of this is to paint Hampton as an avoid. But a (potential) short-term absence from Harris doesn't equate to a bell cow role for the rookie. So, let's not overreact. Instead, let's add context to each situation and find where the true value lies in drafts as more news comes out of camps.

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Second-Year Signal-Callers Set For Takeoff

2024 brought us a variety of new quarterbacks that took over starting jobs in the NFL, whether it was sooner or later in the year—Caleb Williams, Jayden Daniels, Drake Maye, Michael Penix … and even J.J. McCarthy, when we look toward 2025.

With the position chock-full of ripe, young talent, where do these second-year QBs fall among the established vets in Dwain McFarland’s 2025 QB Tiers?:

  • Tier 1: Jayden Daniels

    • “Daniels could take over the mantle as the QB1 this season. He and Jackson are the best two bets to rush for 800+ yards and throw for over 4,000. He goes in the middle of Round 3 and comes with much less uncertainty. Don't be afraid to smash that draft button.”

  • Tier 4: Caleb Williams

    • “I have Williams as my No. 9 quarterback in the Fantasy Life rankings—the highest on the team. Williams is one of the few quarterbacks in the NFL who could pass for 4,500 yards and rush for 500. That gives him HIGH-END QB1 UPSIDE. He might be a complete bust, but with a Round 10 price tag, I am willing to gamble.”

  • Tier 4: Drake Maye

    • “Maye is poised to make a run at a breakout campaign in 2025. He is hardly a lock, but he offers the combination of rushing and passing ceiling that makes him worth targeting ahead of ADP. He is a QB we could select in Round 5 of the fantasy drafts in 2026.”

  • Tier 7: J.J. McCarthy

    • “If he spins it like his predecessors and adds value in the run game, it will be hard to fail with an elite supporting cast. I nearly put McCarthy in Tier 4 behind Drake Maye. He is a great sleeper pick at QB.”

  • Tier 8: Michael Penix

    • “He has three quality passing-game weapons in Drake London, Darnell Mooney, and Bijan Robinson. Zac Robinson brought the motion concepts with him from the Rams, ranking fifth (63%). Yet, he forgot to pack play action in his bags (14%, last). Penix doesn't offer much as a rusher, but if one guy from this tier were to surprise us with new rushing upside in 2025, it would be Penix in Year 2.”

Upside galore. And that’s not all. Dwain went player by player to break down every fantasy-relevant quarterback to rank and tier them for 2025. The Lord’s work, one might say. Everything you need to prepare for the quarterback position is here. ⬇️

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Fantasy Stock Watch: Xavier Worthy Is Zooming Up

Yes, while most of the worldwide TV audience had turned away from Super Bowl LIX and fixated on another bratwurst or dessert, Xavier Worthy was putting on a show with a pair of touchdown receptions to cap off an eight-catch, 157-yard effort.

Was it a prelude to bigger things in 2025? That’s even before the news potentially impacting Rashee Rice hit the airwaves.

Geoff Ulrich conducted an in-depth look at all 32 NFL teams, providing players whose stock is either rising or falling ahead of the coming season. See who’s trending up, and who’s going the other way. ⬇️

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Around the Watercooler

It may be mid-July, but we still have the fantasy football fix you need …

📺 Two very different projections on CMC … which one comes out on top?

🚑 Justin Fields injury update. It could’ve been a lot worse.

👀 I won’t draft Kyle Pitts again, I won’t draft Kyle Pitts aga … wait, hold on.

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