Divisional Round Kicks Off

The best weekend of football

Author

Jake Trowbridge
January 17, 2026

The Divisional Round kicks off today, and I guess some people are still excited about the playoffs even though the Packers aren’t in them? Strange. And no, I’m not bitter at all. Thanks for asking.

But seriously, with only three weeks of meaningful football left, I plan to relish every last minute of what’s sure to be another compelling slate of games.

Speaking of which, I dug around for some fun facts about each of this weekend’s games that might determine how they shake out …

Broncos vs. Bills: A Bad Case of the Runs

No opposing running back has come close to reaching 100 rushing yards at Mile High Stadium this season. In fact, only Josh Jacobs topped 60 yards on the ground in Denver. Sure, the Broncos run defense is excellent overall, but the high altitude definitely isn’t hurting their cause.

Meanwhile, James Cook has broken the century mark nine times this season and even breezed past the double century mark (we call that a two-cent piece*) against the Panthers. Can Denver continue to stop the runs like Pepto-Bismol, or will Buffalo burst through like E. Coli?

*OK, fine, no one calls it that. Yet. But this newsletter has enough readers that we should be able to make it catch on. Tell your friends!

49ers vs. Seahawks: Empty Shelves vs. A Stocked Fridge

San Francisco’s depth chart is the “Stop, he’s already dead” Simpsons meme come to life. Based on their Week 1 starting lineup, the 49ers skill players have missed a combined 26 games this season. And that’s not even including Brandon Aiyuk, whose very existence might be one of those Mandela Effect phenomena.

On the flip side, Zach Charbonnet and Cooper Kupp each missed one game, and …that’s mostly it for the Seahawks. Now, without George Kittle (and possibly Ricky Pearsall), things just got even tougher for the Niners.

Bonus fun fact: In their two regular-season matchups, these teams combined for a grand total of 46 points. If you listen closely, you’ll hear the sound of the Under getting smashed to bits.

Texans vs. Patriots: A QB in Elite Company

Drake Maye led all quarterbacks in both completion percentage and yards per attempt in the regular season. It’s rare for a QB to be so accurate without heavily relying on dinks and/or dunks. The only other ball-slingers this century to lead in both stats were: 

  • Joe Burrow (2021)

  • Drew Brees (2017)

  • Tony Romo (2014)

  • Tom Brady (2007)

  • Kurt Warner (2000, 2001)

I don’t know, Jim, that seems like a pretty good group to be in. 

But can Maye chuck it so precisely against a Houston defense that’s allowed the third-lowest completion percentage and seventh-fewest yards per attempt? The same defense that just sent Aaron Rodgers into the sunset with the lowest postseason completion % of his 21-year career?

Rams vs. Bears: They Can’t Keep Getting Away With It

Including last week’s Wild Card matchups, a combined 22 of Chicago and LA’s games this season were decided by one score. These teams simply refuse to let their fans unclench until the final whistle.

Add in the fact that Matthew Stafford has the most fourth-quarter comebacks of any active QB, and this game feels destined to come down to one final play as the clock nears zero. Prepare yourself for high drama.

Puka Nacua Projects For Another Big Game

Ready for the best weekend of football all year? The Divisional Round is here! To really enjoy it you’ll need the Xfinity Projections to see how many fantasy points your players will produce in the most important games. Puka Nacua has been awesome and has a great matchup against the Bears, but you can take in so much more. Enjoy our excellent content AND the projections tool all at the low price of $0.00, thank you to Xfinity. Go now! Run some players through! Enjoy the tool! And get that win!! Imagine all your football, all in one place. Easy. Xfinity. Imagine That.

Fantasy

Editors’ Picks

The Divisional Round kicks off this afternoon and we’ve got everything you need to get up to speed …

Will Sam Darnold see ghosts in the Divisional Round? How many TDs will each of these QBs throw?? HOW MUCH MONEY WILL YOU WIN WITH COOTERDOODLE’S SCARED MONEY PARLAYS???

How early is too early to draft Colston Loveland in your Divisional Round drafts? Jonathan Fuller breaks down Loveland and how else to approach the Underdog slate.

DFS

Divisional Round DFS Breakdown

Welcome to what many people believe to be the best football weekend each season. We’re down to the final eight teams, setting up four high-stakes matchups across two days. Add then the College Football National Championship on Monday, and it’s as good a three-day stretch as you’ll find as a football fan.

This year, we’re left with the Seahawks vs. the 49ers and the Bears vs. the Rams in the NFC Divisional Round, while the Patriots vs. the Texans and the Broncos vs. the Bills will comprise the AFC. The winners will advance to the Conference Championships, while the losers will head back to the drawing board for next season.

It’s only fitting that a great football weekend comes with some great NFL DFS contests. The biggest slate covers the full four games across the whole weekend, with the action getting underway at 4:30 p.m. ET on Saturday.

Top Studs: Jaxon Smith-Njigba vs. 49ers ($8,500 DraftKings, $9,400 FanDuel) & Puka Nacua at Bears ($9,000 DraftKings, $9,800 FanDuel)

There’s really no need to belabor this one. Smith-Njigba and Nacua have been the two best receivers in fantasy all season, and they should be two of the highest-owned options on this slate. It’s hard to imagine building a lineup without either player, and a large chunk of the field will probably use both.

As for which receiver gets the top spot, it’s extremely close. Nacua plays for the better offense, while Smith-Njigba gets a better matchup. Smith-Njigba has a slight edge in median projection, while Nacua has a slight edge from a ceiling standpoint.

Choosing between these two is the definition of a “first-world problem.” Both guys are elite players, and both will probably perform in their respective matchups.

Top Value No. 1: RJ Harvey vs. Bills ($6,200 DraftKings, $6,900 FanDuel)

The Broncos will take the field for the first time this postseason, and they draw a fantastic matchup for their rushing attack. Buffalo has been shredded on the ground for most of the year, and we saw that once again in their Wild Card matchup vs. the Jaguars. Travis Etienne, Bhayshul Tuten and Trevor Lawrence combined for 149 yards on just 20 carries, good for an average of nearly 7.5 per tote. The Bills have allowed the eighth-most fantasy points to the position for the year, giving the Broncos’ RBs an xFinity Boost of +2.0.

Harvey will serve as the top option in their backfield. He’s handled that role ever since J.K. Dobbins went down with an injury in Week 10. Harvey has amassed a 61% rushing share over the team’s past seven games, and he’s averaged better than 15.0 PPR points over that stretch. That number would be even higher if not for a 4.3 clunker in Week 18; he had at least 18.6 PPR points in four of his previous five games.

Fantasy

There’s some time before kickoff, so let’s jump into Fantasy Life Trivia. But first, let’s reveal yesterday’s answer:

Q: Christian McCaffrey continued his dominant year as a receiver, catching 2 touchdowns in the 49ers’ upset over the Eagles in the Wild Card Round. The last time a running back caught multiple touchdowns in a playoff game was in 2019, when this running back did it for the Chiefs:

A: Damien Williams. Williams, Hunt and Ware were all on the roster in 2018-19, with Hunt serving as the starter for the first 11 games of the season. Williams eventually took on a larger role in the postseason, and he racked up 5 catches, 66 yards and 2 scores in a 37-31 loss to the Patriots. Williams would add 2 receiving touchdowns across three playoff games the following year, and he added 100+ rushing yards in the Super Bowl win over the 49ers. Clyde Edwards-Helaire would be drafted the following offseason, officially ending Williams’ tenure with KC.

Fantasy Life Trivia for Divisional Round Saturday

Q: Rhamondre Stevenson just won’t go away, much to the chagrin of TreVeyon Henderson truthers everywhere. He tallied 53 rushing yards and 75 receiving yards vs. the Chargers, becoming just the second Patriots’ running back in history with at least 50 rushing yards and 75 receiving yards in the same playoff contest. Who was the first?

Fantasy

Around The Watercooler

The latest fantasy and NFL gossip, news, memes and more from our merry band of football nerds …

👀 Ian and Dwain break down every matchup of the Divisional Round.

❓ Who’s Austin Ekeler drafting at 1.01 in the summer?

🐻 Sam Wallace is all-in on a Bears wide receiver in dynasty leagues.

☝️ Who did Matthew Freedman just move to the top of the 2026 rookie class?

🤔 Where would Kaleb Johnson rank in the upcoming running back class? Reddit is split.

✌️ ICYMI 2.0: Our Divisional Round DFS/best ball content is so nice, we do it twice.

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