🤦 What Could Have Been In Dallas...

Are we sure the Raiders didn’t flip a coin on their QB room, too?

In today’s Fantasy Life Newsletter presented by Masterworks:

The Dallas Cowboys stunned everyone when they didn’t select an RB in the NFL draft.

Since then, us fantasy drafters have been forced to plug our noses and decide between drafting the recently signed Ezekiel Elliott (Round 11 ADP) or the perfectly bland Rico Dowdle (Round 12 ADP).

The knife got twisted even further yesterday when ESPN insider Jeremy Fowler reported the team almost landed one of the most electric backs in the draft:

Fowler also mentions that the team liked MarShawn Lloyd, but decided to prioritize linebacker at pick No. 87 instead. Lloyd went one pick later to Green Bay.

Ugh.

I’ll be the first to admit that both Zeke and Dowdle are targets in drafts at their current prices. I prefer Dowdle, but both should be expected to rise in ADP over the course of the summer once it becomes clear that Derrick Henry or Jonathan Brooks isn’t walking through that door.

The best I can do for you on the Dallas hopium front is a Zay Jones rumor. People do forget that he was born in Dallas and played HS ball in Austin.

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⚖️ A prediction on the Rashee Rice suspension. A lawyer weighs in.

🏀 The first NFL player to sign a pro basketball contract. Very cool.

💀 What’s dead may never die. This journeyman WR isn’t done yet.

👛 Did the Raiders literally flip a coin to decide their draft pick? You be the judge.

💪 The Jets’ new rookie WR can bench 27 reps of 225lbs. That’s a lot.

🐬 The Dolphins add a veteran WR. Interesting signing.

🐶 Underdog dropped three new contests yesterday. Hop in this $5 one.

📺️ An NFL game on Netflix? Sounds like it could happen.

Jonathan Fuller dives into differences in trends and strategy from 2023 to 2024 best ball drafts, including positional trends, draft trends and more.

One of my favorite things about drafting best ball teams over the course of the offseason is that the market is dynamic. The ADP landscape is constantly shifting, and it's up to us to adjust accordingly. Drafting the best players is important, but proper roster construction is even more critical.

The best drafters are able to combine player evaluations with a strong understanding of how to navigate the draft board in order to build the best possible roster. This means understanding where the different pockets of value are and recognizing when a particular draft lets you build a team that isn't possible most of the time.

Let's take a look at how the current best ball landscape has changed from last season and how we can navigate these changes to build a team capable of winning $1.5 million.

📈 Best Ball Trends in 2024

📉 Elite QBs are cheaper in 2024

The top-tier QBs were pushed way up draft boards in 2023, but the market has swung back the other way in 2024. The top-eight QBs by ADP are all going meaningfully later than last season, which makes them much more attractive picks due to the lower opportunity cost. 

I'm not totally convinced that this trend will hold up all summer, as more casual drafters entering the best ball streets over the next couple of months may push up the cost of the elite QBs. I've been trying to exploit this in early drafts by almost exclusively building teams with two strong QBs. By spending just two picks on the QB position, I'm then able to allocate an extra roster spot to RB, WR, or TE, depending on where my roster feels thin.

My two most frequently-drafted QBs right now are Anthony Richardson (QB6) and Kyler Murray (QB8). After those top eight, the ADPs are actually a bit more expensive than they were in 2023. I think the top eight QBs by ADP accurately reflect the players with the most upside, so I plan to continue hammering the top QBs in best ball drafts until they rise up draft boards.

⛰️ The RB ADP cliff is real

Comparing 2023 RB ADP against 2024 RB ADP revealed an interesting difference. The top-11 RBs are going in nearly identical spots to where they were last season, but RBs 12 through 24 are being drafted about a full round later than they were in 2023. This suggests that drafters see a very clear tier break after the RB11 (Travis Etienne) and are willing to wait before selecting RBs from the next tier. 

I actually think this is incredibly sharp from the drafting public, and the current tier cutoff is in about the right spot. The top-11 RBs being drafted prior to the ADP cliff are all players who have talent and a confidently projected workload. 

The RBs after this ADP cliff generally all have question marks in at least one of those two categories. You could make a case that the next two RBs off the board (James Cook and Isiah Pacheco) could be closer to the group ahead of them, but the fact that they aren't makes them strong picks right now.

Excluding the rookies (who I think are just generally a bit underpriced), my most drafted RBs as of now are Jaylen Warren (RB28), Cook (RB12), Kenneth Walker (RB16), and David Montgomery (RB19), all of whom currently have ADPs between pick No. 48 and 94 overall. I'm often drafting my first two RBs in this range after having prioritized WR early, with occasional detours for an elite QB and/or TE.