😱 He Can’t Keep Getting Away With It

One lucky winner will receive roundtrip air to Arizona and the chance to play WR for the Chiefs...

In today’s Fantasy Life Newsletter presented by Zingeroo:

Patrick Mahomes had virtually no help in the AFC Conference Championship game. His starting WRs were dropping like flies and he was left throwing to guys named Marcus Kemp (apologies, Marcus, I’m sure you are a great guy, but you get my point).

Mahomes is truly special, but this string of wins with USFL-level WR talent is starting to feel like that Aaron Paul meme:

With the Super Bowl now only nine days away, it’s time to check in on the status of the banged up Chiefs WR room and try to forecast whether reinforcements are coming or not for this matchup with the Eagles.

Unfortunately, three key WRs have yet to practice his week:

🚑 Mecole Hardman (pelvis)

Things sound truly dire for Hardman. Here was Andy Reid’s direct quote yesterday:

Hardman is apparently going to get a second opinion on his core injury, but consider him firmly on the doubtful side of things.

🚑 JuJu Smith-Schuster (knee)

Smith-Schuster, on the other hand, seems more likely to play:

JuJu hasn’t cleared 50 receiving yards since December 18th vs. the Texans, but at this point the Chiefs simply need bodies and he is certainly that.

🚑 Kadarius Toney (ankle/hamstring)

The second Toney hit the ground after trying to cut up field in the Bengals game, you just knew it might be awhile until we see him again. The snakebitten WR has a CVS-receipt’s worth of injuries to his name.

Reid, however, did offer some optimism that Toney would play, but it’s getting hard to count on him to even make it through an entire game when he does.

🔮 So now what?

Assuming Hardman doesn’t play, it seems like the most likely scenario is Justin Watson returns to the lineup after missing last week with an illness to flank MVS and Smith-Schuster in most passing scenarios. One of Toney and rookie Skyy Moore will likely mix in as well, but this remains a total mess.

We’ll see if we get any more clarity over the next week.

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️⛳️ Aaron Rodgers rules out one team…while on the tee box.

🎱 Is Brady definitely retired? Gronk weighs in.

❓ It's Mock Draft SZN at The Athletic! Who is going to make a move?

🤣 Derek Carr is a funny dude. Lmao, so good.

🚫 Joe Mixon is not a good dude. Real crummy.

⏳ Will Brady retire as a Patriot? At least one person wants to make it happen.

📸 The uniforms are set for the Super Bowl. Fit check?

The NFL offseason will be in full swing before we know it, with coaching changes, free agency and the NFL draft reshaping the 2023 fantasy football landscape. With that in mind, the Fantasy Life squad is breaking down every NFL team to determine what went wrong in 2022 and identify paths to improvement. Geoff is here to tackle the Browns...

🐶 Team Summary

The duo of Jacoby Brissett (11 games) and a very rusty-looking Deshaun Watson (6 games) could only produce an offense in 2022-23 that ranked 17th in both points (21.2) and average scoring margin (-1.2).

The story for the Browns was even worse on the defensive side where they struggled mightily at times, allowing the fourth-most rushing TDs and the eighth-most rushing yardage against.

With the Browns having mortgaged the future in the Watson trade, the team is without a first-round draft pick for the next two drafts and will be hard-pressed to address positional weaknesses.

With the draft cupboard bare, the Browns path to improvement in 2023 is most likely going to have to come from within. It’s time to hunker down in Cleveland and find creative and low-key ways they can improve this off-season.

🚧 Fantasy Fixer Recommendations

🕰️ Get Deshaun Watson back in form

During the regular season, Watson played in six games and completed just 58 percent of his passes for 1,102 yards, seven touchdowns, and five interceptions. While he only played about 1/3rd of a season, Watson set career lows in yards per attempt, completion percentage, and TD rate.

Watson also took 20 sacks over those six games and his 10.5% sack rate would have ranked as the second-highest on the season if extrapolated over 17 games.

The good news is that Watson overcame the same issue in Houston, thanks mainly to an offense that used RPOs and lots of play action to get him outside the pocket. Last season the Browns attempted just 137 play-action passes – which ranked 16th in the league – and only 30 passes on RPOs (run-pass options).

While the idea of having Watson do more in 2023 sounds risky, the Browns can’t coddle their most valuable asset.

If the Browns can modify and mold around Watson’s strengths, this offense will have a much better chance of ranking out as a top-10 unit next season.

🏈 Pass the ball more (especially on first down)

In three years under Kevin Stefanski, the offense in Cleveland has never ranked higher than 25th in pass play percentage for a season and has also never ranked higher than 26th in first-down pass attempts. That plan has not led to a ton of success.

Since 2020, Cleveland has never ranked higher than 10th in point-differential, yardage-differential, points scored, or yardage gained. The Browns were also ranked just 17th and 21st in first-down success rate in 2020 and 2021.

A move to more early down passing would serve the Browns well in 2023. Of the teams who ranked inside the top-10 in first-down throw percentage in 2023, six of them ranked inside the top-10 in points scored last season. In 2021 that number was even higher at seven.

It’s a little simplistic, but teams that pass the ball more are, on average, better at scoring points and winning games. If the Browns want to win more, they need to stop being so predictable (especially on first down) and find efficient ways to pass the ball early on in games.

🚚 Load up at wide receiver

Getting a legit speedster into this offense would likely help clear out space for more passing on first down and also give Watson a better chance of creating more explosive plays.

Zay Flowers would be an excellent second-day target at the draft for the Browns who have the 42nd overall pick. Flowers projects as an inside-outside weapon that will be able to beat NFL corners consistently downfield with a projected 40-time in the 4.3 range.

If the cost on Flowers is too high, both DJ Chark and Parris Campbell would also make for solid free-agent targets. Cleveland can create cap space by restructuring Deshaun Watson’s contract and neither Campbell nor Chark would come with a huge premium.

The Browns don't have a ton to work with in terms of assets but they need to open up this offense in 2023. Adding more speed and talent at the WR position would help that cause immensely.

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When it comes to regression, it pays to be ahead of the curve. Each week on Regression Session, Jonathan will give you actionable insights on trends that are unlikely to continue so you can act before your leaguemates.

With the regular season over for nearly a month now, we have had time to dig into the data and figure out what lessons and trends are likely to carry forward into 2023, and what was just noise. With that in mind, I have picked a handful of themes or macro trends that I believe are prime regression candidates.

📈 Positive Regression

🩺 QB health and Well-being

Incredibly, 64 different QBs started a game in 2022.

Although the longer season boosts stats like this, NFL teams were still churning through QBs at an alarming rate. Whether through injuries or benching, we were treated to lots of backups in 2022.

Nine different teams had 3 or more different starting QBs this season which makes it very difficult to put an effective offense on the field. I expect a combination of positive injury regression and teams placing emphasis on QB stability to result in better QB play with less turnover next year.

Which leads me to my next point...

🏆 Total passing TDs

NFL teams only managed 1.38 passing touchdowns per game during the 2022 season, which is the lowest mark since 2008.

This is a sharp reversal for a league that continues to emphasize the passing game more each season. Whether you blame QB injuries, defensive schemes, or simply variance, it would be very surprising if we don’t see a rebound in passing scores next season.

🏫 2020 RB Draft Class

It was a tough year for pretty much every RB drafted in 2020.

Seriously, there were six RBs in the top two rounds that year and just look at these names: Clyde Edwards-Helaire, D’Andre Swift, Jonathan Taylor, Cam Akers, J.K. Dobbins, and AJ Dillon. Yikes.

But despite the disappointing season, there is plenty of talent in this group, and they will all be 25 or younger in the 2023 season. I like most of this group as buy low candidates relative to their value at this time last year.

📉 Negative Regression

🛡️ Minnesota Vikings

I could really go any number of directions with this.

From Minnesota’s ridiculous 11-0 record in regular season one score games to the fact that they had a player finish in the top 9 of fantasy scoring at every position, the Vikings are a team likely to be on the wrong side of regression next year.

After keeping all of their key skill position players healthy in 2022 and getting a 1,800+ receiving yard season from Justin Jefferson, there are several paths to the Vikings coming up short of expectations next year.

🐬 Dolphins WR efficiency

Miami’s offense was a revelation in 2022, and the top two pass catchers, Tyreek Hill, and Jaylen Waddle, combined for 194 receptions, 3,066 receiving yards, and 15 receiving TDs.

Both players ranked in the top three in yards per route run at the position, which is a testament to both their individual talent and the excellent scheme Mike McDaniel brought to South Beach.

The Dolphins should still be a good offense next season, but we can expect regression to hit one or both of their star receivers.

In addition to natural regression after posting career-best seasons, defenses will be more prepared for the McDaniel offense and will likely take away some of the easy YAC opportunities that allowed Hill and Waddle to torch opposing defenses all year long.

💪 Travis Kelce vs the TE field

Travis Kelce absolutely lapped the field in 2022, outscoring the TE2 by more than 80 points in half PPR scoring. This is the widest margin between the top two fantasy TEs since the 2013 season.

Even if Kelce repeats as the TE1 in his age-34 season, it is very unlikely he will dominate the field to the same degree. If the ADP gap between Kelce and the rest of the elite TEs prices in a similar level of outperformance for next season, I will probably be underweight on Kelce in 2023 drafts.