Can History Help Us In Drafts?

I’m not much of a history buff, but I do subscribe to the age-old adage of history repeating itself. And for fantasy purposes, the players themselves aren't as important as the patterns that have emerged over the years.

How can history help us in our drafts? Here are a few patterns from the last decade.

The TE Leader List is Tight

Historically speaking, there are usually only 1-2 TEs that can truly hang with the big dawgs (read: top WRs) in receiving stats each season.

In 2015, it was Rob Gronkowski, who finished 12th in receiving yards and seventh in TDs across all pass catchers. In 2020, Travis Kelce logged the second-most receiving yards in the league, tying in fifth for receiving TDs. Now, it's some combination of Brock Bowers (third receiving, eighth yards) and Trey McBride (fourth rec, 11th yards) hanging with the big dawgs (though our TE leaders in 2024 didn't need to score TDs to sustain elite levels of fantasy production … which was a change of pace).

If history repeats itself: Only a select few TEs will put up fantasy numbers that are worthy of early-round picks. It's why the "Elite TE" vs. "Late TE" debates exist. If you don't get a TE that can hang with the big dawgs, you may as well wait until later to draft the position.

The RB position is less forgiving

 "Woah! I forgot about that guy!" If you scroll back through the years, you'll find yourself taking a trip down memory lane with the long-forgotten RB leaders of the past.

Remember Doug Martin and Darren McFadden? They both finished in the top four in rushing yards in 2015. They also rushed for only 1,000+ yards just twice in their careers. But in 2015, they were fantasy heroes!

What about 2022’s rushing TD leader, Jamaal Williams? He scored more rushing TDs in 2022 (17) than he did across the rest of his career (15). But it sure was a fun year, wasn’t it?

If history repeats itself: You have to respect the volatility of the position. Sure, there have been consistent fantasy-producing machines like Derrick Henry, Christian McCaffrey, and Alvin Kamara. But fluctuations are common. Get excited about those late-round RB picks. But remember! Sometimes when a running back has an outlier year, it's just that … an outlier (sorry, Jamaal).

WRs Are Timeless

The landscape for WR is much more familiar. In WR land, you'll see the same names popping up throughout the years. Over and over and over again.

I mean, it’s 2025, and we are still having conversations about Tyreek Hill, Stefon Diggs, Mike Evans, and Davante Adams! These guys were fantasy leaders allll the way back in 2020 … and 2019 … and 2018 … and 2017 … 

You get the idea.

If history repeats itself: You can stop hyper-fixating on WR age, QB fluctuations, and team changes. If they’re a stud, they’re a stud. Draft the studs.

The bottom line: Those who don't learn from history are doomed to repeat it.

Just ask anyone who's drafted Kyle Pitts.