🎯 A Bounce-Back WR To Target

Don’t take Treylon from us. Not like this…

In today’s Fantasy Life Newsletter presented by BetMGM:

Tim Patrick is sadly done for the year.

KJ Hamler is dealing with a non-football illness designation and is likely out of the picture for 2023.

Greg Dulcich appears to be in a true TE committee with Adam Trautman.

We’re all very excited about Marvin Mims, but he’s still a rookie who is most likely to make an impact later in the season.

So who is going to step up for the Broncos this year alongside the expensive Jerry Jeudy (ADP 37)?

You see where I’m going with this, right??

🎯 A Bounce-Back WR To Target

Courtland Sutton—who possesses the size of a prototypical WR1 at 6’3” and 218 lbs—was a second-round pick in 2018 and flashed as a rookie. He then broke out in his sophomore campaign with 1,112 receiving yards and 6 TDs, which earned him a Pro Bowl appearance.

Since then, it’s been an underwhelming mixed bag with his career plagued by injuries (2020 surgery to repair his ACL) and subpar QB play:

But if you listen to anyone around Broncos camp, it sounds like things are truly different for Sutton heading into 2023…

Jeff Legwold, ESPN Senior Writer, noted that Sutton has changed “almost everything about his offseason regimen, from workouts to diet to how he approached each passing week of the summer.”

This is all very encouraging news. And the best part is that Sutton remains very affordable in drafts, going almost 60 picks after Jeudy:

Sutton falls in a WR range where upside profiles dry up quickly, which makes him a priority target for however long he hangs out in this range.

Grab him while you can.

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Fantasy football is supposed to be fun, but you know what’s not fun? Sucking at fantasy football. This brings us directly to today’s goal: Players to fade at ADP (average draft position). Take it away, Ian…

To be crystal clear: I am not fully fading ANYBODY. 

Every skill-position player in the league could feasibly become a ‘buy’ in fantasy land at the right price – and I’ve restricted qualifiers to those ranked inside of the top 100 players since nobody needs a reminder to fade the WR65 this season.

Long story short: These players are a bit too expensive for my liking.

Don’t hate the player; hate the ADP: And I am not a fan of these ADPs.

👋 Steelers RB Najee Harris

• ADP: RB13 (pick 40.3)

• Ian’s rank: RB16 (48)

I’ve drafted Jaylen Warren more than any other RB this year, thanks to his high-end handcuff upside inside of an offense that has historically been willing to leave one featured RB on the field.

This naturally raises the question: Why would I accordingly not be down to simply target the locked-in starter inside of said offense?

Answer: Because Warren did enough in 2022 to turn Harris into less of a bell-cow option as opposed to the every-down workhorse we saw in 2021:

• 2022: 14.9 expected PPR points per game (RB12)

• 2021: 19.7 (RB2)

This difference in opportunity dropped Harris from the RB7 to RB19 in PPR points per game; his inefficiency in both the run and pass game was far tougher to manage in 2022 without a legit every-down role.

Consider this: seven of Harris’ 12 least-used games in terms of offensive snap rate occurred during the final nine weeks of 2022.

The whole “Najee got a lot better after getting a steel plate removed from his cleat” storyline wasn’t true in terms of creating explosive plays, while the idea that Warren was only more efficient because defenses didn’t load the box the same way is also false.

Harris can make me look stupid by:

1. Presenting newfound elite efficiency behind an admittingly improved Steelers offensive line

2. Holding off Warren and seizing a more featured role (first-team preseason usage in Week 1 wasn’t a good start)

3. Getting a bit more lucky along the goal line (was stopped at the one-yard line and did NOT score on the same drive a league-high seven times last year)

Anything is possible – but I don’t like the idea of spending a late-third or early fourth-round pick to find out!

This is especially true when similar “inefficient RB in a likely bad offense with a big workload” archetypes like Cam Akers, James Conner and Rachaad White are available so much later in fantasy drafts of all shapes and sizes.

👋 Falcons WR Drake London

• ADP: WR24 (pick 45.1)

• Ian’s rank: WR27 (53)

London experienced a mini breakout down the stretch of 2022, ripping off 6-95-0, 7-70-0, 7-96-0, 5-47-0 and 6-120-0 receiving lines during the final five weeks of the season.

Some of the route-running and YAC moves that London put on tape were SCARY for a man standing 6-feet-4 and weighing 213 pounds.

The gargantuan-sized problem in the room: TE Kyle Pitts was sidelined during the final six weeks of 2022, undoubtedly helping London obtain a more consistent target share inside of the NFL’s single most run-heavy offense.

Overall, London had just one game with eight-plus targets in Weeks 1 to 11 with Pitts active vs. five-such performances during the final six weeks after. Their workloads were nearly identical when both were healthy.

Desmond Ridder starting the final four weeks of the season also played into this volume equation; just realize his small sample of work was actually worse than what Marcus Mariota put together during the first three months of the year.

Among 49 qualified QBs…

• Adjusted completion percentage: Mariota (67.3%, 46th), Ridder (68.5%, 45th)

• From a clean pocket: Mariota (72%, 44th), Ridder (66.5%, 48th)

• On deep passes (20-plus yards): Mariota (27.1%, 44th), Ridder (20%, 48th)

Last year’s offense was the second-most run-heavy group in pass rate over expected since 2016 … and they just drafted allegedly generational RB Bijan Robinson with the 2023 NFL Draft’s No. 8 overall pick.

Maybe London is simply too good to let a little thing like volume hold him back, but I struggle to pay the premium on him when someone with similar issues, like Michael Pittman, is going two-and-a-half rounds later.

🙏 A big scare in Tennessee. Thankfully, the worst-case scenario has been avoided.

🔥 Now this is a hot take! I’m sorry, but it’s not true.

🚑️ The Bucs lose a WR for the year. Tough break for a team who already projects poorly.

🥵 First look at Zeke in a Patriots uniform. Long sleeves in August?!

😥 Jameson Williams can’t catch a break. At least he has time to get healthy.

🤔 Can a WR be good in the NFL if he didn’t lead his college team in receiving? Apparently, yes!

🤝 Rodgers to Wilson. Get used to this.

🚀 Can I interest you in more Dalton Kincaid hype? Here ya go.

🤔 Can you trust Bijan? Uh oh, do not like this quote.

🧮 Have you played Weekly Winners on Underdog? Great data here.

Pat Kerrane won $2,000,000 after finishing first place in Underdog Fantasy’s Best Ball Mania III. He now has his own site—Legendary Upside—where he shares tips and tricks to help you win big bucks in your fantasy contests. Today he shares some valuable information on how to evaluate TEs in fantasy…

Pass-blocking assignments can cost tight ends valuable routes. That being said, we still want our fantasy tight ends to be competent blockers so that they see the field for play-action passing attempts.

Play-action is generally an efficient means of passing the ball. With linebackers forced to respect the run, the tactic can open up big plays in the passing game, and play-action passing is especially important for tight-end production.

In 2022, 33% of TE targets came on play action, and those targets produced 45% of all tight-end TDs.

On top of last season, the last five seasons bear out this overall trend. TEs benefit disproportionately from play-action passing...making it vital that they are on the field for run fakes.

Crucially, many of these play-action passes occur with just one tight end on the field. So, it’s no surprise that 44% of play-action TE targets were out of single-TE sets last season.

This reinforces my skepticism of tight ends in a "big slot" role. My initial skepticism came down to the simple fact that NFL teams don't tend to pass out of 2TE sets very much.

Last season, NFL teams deployed 12 personnel (1RB-2TEs-2WRs) on just 16% of passing snaps. The Ravens were the biggest outlier. But at just 35%, 2TE sets were still a clear minority of their dropbacks, as the Ravens were the only team above 30% last year.

"Big slot" snaps are fun, but they aren't enough on their own.

It's still vital for TEs to see starter-level snaps in traditional alignments, and 72% of 2022 passing attempts came out of 11 personnel (1RB-1TE-3WRs). We really want access to those routes.

For example, all seven of Cole Kmet's TDs last season occurred on play action. Kmet has been an underwhelming fantasy producer... but imagine how bad he'd be if he weren't a good run blocker.

If you're wondering why you know Brock Wright's name... it's because of play-action targets. Wright saw 15-of-23 targets and 4-of-4 TDs on play action last year.

Even Travis Kelce saw a massive boost from play action, with five of 16 TDs occurring on play action last season (including the playoffs).

We don't need run-blocking superstars to produce difference-making play-action production. Mediocre blocking is perfectly fine for our purposes. Since 2010, 86% of impact TE seasons have come from players who posted a PFF run-blocking grade of at least 55.

Coming off a season with a run-blocking grade of 70 and a position-leading 43 play-action targets, Mark Andrews is perfectly positioned to punish defenses for overplaying the Baltimore run game.