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Black Friday football, a sneaky start, and more!
Plus: Should we talk about that non-timeout?
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The Bears have some gut-wrenching losses this season, but the one on Thanksgiving was coaching malpractice. After an awful first half, the Bears rallied from a 16-point fourth-quarter deficit with a chance to tie or win it. Poor clock management resulted in one play in the final 32 seconds with a timeout remaining and the Lions won, 23-20. Bears coach Matt Eberflus didn’t see a problem with it. | Adam Ronis |
The Giants started their third different quarterback in three games, but Drew Lock didn’t change things. The Cowboys defeated New York, 27-20, in the middle game for their first home win of the season. In the nightcap, the Packers defeated the Dolphins, 30-17. Here is the Friday FAQ.
Outside of the Bears poor clock management, was anything encouraging?
There were some positives to take away. After a poor first half, Caleb Williams had an excellent second half. He passed for 256 yards with three touchdowns and rushed for 39 yards. He has at least 33 rushing yards in three straight games and is getting the ball to his receivers. DJ Moore had 16 targets and caught eight passes for 97 yards with a touchdown. He has at least 13 points in PPR formats in the three games since Thomas Brown took over as offensive coordinator. Keenan Allen has benefitted with his two best games of the season over the last two games. He scored two touchdowns on five catches for 73 yards. For the Lions, David Montgomery had 24 touches for 124 yards, while Jahmyr Gibbs only had 11 touches for 104 yards. It’s a rare game where neither scored.
Have the Cowboys finally committed to Rico Dowdle?
It sure seems that way. Dowdle had 22 carries for 110 yards with a touchdown and caught three passes for 11 yards. It was his first rushing touchdown of the season and Dowdle has 47 touches over the last two games putting him in RB2 territory. He took advantage of a good matchup against the Giants. CeeDee Lamb was a disappointment with two catches for 39 yards and three dropped passes. He was on the sidelines in the fourth quarter with a shoulder injury. For the Giants, Tyrone Tracy had nine carries for 32 yards with a score and caught two passes for 33 yards and Malik Nabers had 13 targets, catching eight for 69 yards. Drew Lock couldn’t unlock the offense. He went 21-for-32 for 178 yards, rushed for 57 yards with a score, threw an interception, and took six sacks.
Did Tua Tagovailoa change the narrative that he and the Dolphins can’t play in cold weather?
Once again, the Dolphins failed to get a win in the cold weather in Green Bay. The offense struggled most of the game. The explosive plays are lacking and Miami couldn’t convert in the red zone and committed 10 penalties. Tagovailoa had a solid fantasy game with 330 passing yards and two touchdowns. Jonnu Smith remains a must-start at tight end. He had 10 receptions for 113 yards on 12 targets. Tyreek Hill had good stats, but had one catch for two yards at the half and his touchdown came on a tipped pass. He had six catches for 83 yards. De’Von Achane only rushed for 14 yards on seven carries and added eight catches for 56 yards with a score. For Green Bay, Jordan Love passed for 274 yards with two touchdowns, Josh Jacobs had 117 total yards with a touchdown and Jayden Reed scored twice.
We have more football on the way. A Black Friday game, your regular Sunday fun. How about some …
What else is in today’s newsletter?
A sneaky Week 13 start: Why Devaughn Vele is worth a look
Watercooler: A massive CFB preview, 50% off FL, and more
WR MATCHUPS |
Devaughn Vele’s Matchup Leads to a Sneaky Start
By Chris Allen
Broncos WR Devaughn Vele vs. Browns
Trusting anyone outside of Courtland Sutton in Denver feels like a risky proposition.
Denver’s backfield rotates RBs on a week-to-week basis. Lil’Jordan Humphrey keeps mixing in for looks. The offense lacks consistency outside of Bo Nix creating with his legs and Sutton Moss’ing defenders. But let me make the case for Devaughn Vele.
One point is his steady integration into the offense. His target share has ticked up each week over his last five games. Alas, check out his aDOT. Nix is more of a conservative passer, primarily working the short area of the field. Vele’s 8.7-yard aDOT fits his QB’s style. Also, going up against the Browns isn’t as bad as you’d think.
Cleveland CB Greg Newsome splits his time between the perimeter and the slot. Since Week 9 (three-game sample), 52 of his 85 coverage snaps have been on the interior. In that same span, he’s given up the ninth-most yards per snap, plus a score. While a touchdown is tough to project, the opportunities and defensive matchup allow for Vele to continue his ascension as another trusty target for Nix in his rookie campaign.
Texans WR Nico Collins at Jaguars
Sometimes, WRs make my job easy.
Nico Collins’ return to prominence was inevitable. He had a long TD called back on a penalty the week prior. But the negated score wasn’t the indicator. Collins matched Tank Dell in targets while running a route on 55.0% of C.J. Stroud’s dropbacks. Without any news of an in-game setback, Houston’s WR1 would get a WR1 workload. And he did the following week.
Again, let’s ignore the touchdown (for now) and focus on the usage. Collins’ nine targets led the team, along with his 39.1% air yard share. Since returning, he’s been Stroud’s primary target on quick-game concepts, allowing Stroud to avoid pressure. And, of course, the two have linked up on deep shots down the field. The varying route depths cement him as a high-end receiver and part of why his aDOT sits at 10.9 yards over the last two weeks. Plus, his matchup against the Jaguars has been favorable for opposing WR1s.
Week 11: Amon-Ra St. Brown, 39.1 (PPR points)
Week 10: Justin Jefferson, 9.8
Week 9: DeVonta Smith, 18.7
Week 8: Romeo Doubs, 10.2
Collins already cooked Jacksonville for 151 yards in their first divisional meeting in Week 4. As he’s largely lined up on the left, he’ll see Jags’ CB Tyson Campbell, who has strictly played on the defensive right side. Campbell has allowed the second-highest passer rating to opposing QBs over the last month of action, along with the eighth-highest catch rate. Even with Stroud struggling under center, one part of the offense that does work is his attempts to Collins.
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AROUND THE WATERCOOLER |
The latest analysis and insights from our merry band of football nerds:
💰 There’s a Black Friday game today (Chiefs/Raiders)! Matt LaMarca has the best DFS plays, props, and bets.
🧠 If you love college football, Thor Nystrom’s Week 14 preview is for you.
🙃 If you have no idea what’s happening in college football this season, Thor Nystrom’s Week 14 preview is also for you.
🏈 There is still a lot of NFL football to be played this weekend. Check out Coach Gene and Laghezza’s Start/Sit to re-focus!
🎁 Fantasy Life has a fantastic 50% off Black Friday sale that would make a perfect gift for the fantasy player in your life. Use code: BF50 — Tell ‘em Ronis sent ya!
🕰️ Let’s go back to a simpler time (via The Athletic), when Matt Eberflus was a brilliant defensive coordinator.
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