💰 Bills vs. Rams: Top Plays & Best Bets

I've never been so excited to watch Ben Skowronek play football...

In today’s Fantasy Life Newsletter presented by BetMGM:

I know I shouldn't yell, but I don't think I can help myself:

FOOTBALL IS BACK, BABY!

I mean, honestly, what a time to be alive: Matthew is rubbing shoulders with Jimmy Fallon, our fantasy teams are drafted and tucked underneath the tree like presents ready to be opened, and we got a premium matchup on tap tonight between this year's Super Bowl favorite and last year's Super Bowl champion.

It doesn't get it any better than that.

If you're looking to get prepared for tonight's game before making some bets and playing a little DFS, you are in the right spot.

Luckily both squads are fairly healthy heading into the game, although the Rams will be without their WR3, Van Jefferson.

Here are our favorite plays for fantasy & DFS, as well as our favorite bets, props, and pick 'ems:

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Congratulations, you have finally made it to Week 1 of the NFL season! Let’s reward ourselves for getting through a long offseason by placing some bets for the Week 1 slates. All bets can be found at BetMGM. Take it away, Kendall...

💰 Dawson Knox: Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+157)

The Buffalo Bills and Los Angeles Rams kick things off on a Thursday Night Football matchup which has the Rams as rare underdogs at home. While the Rams finished 3-0 ATS (against the spread) as underdogs during the 2021 season, I want to start Week 1 off with a bang. And that is to bet on Knox finding the endzone tonight.

I like to lean into narratives: Knox had nine TDs last season, two coming in the AFC Divisional playoffs against the Patriots. He also reached an agreement Wednesday. on a four-year extension for $53.6 million and includes $31 million guaranteed, making him one of the highest paid TEs in the league. I am absolutely following the hype that QB Josh Allen will find one of his favorite targets during prime time.

💰 Eagles (-4) at Lions

Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts has been getting a lot of love this offseason. Matthew Berry even said he could finish the season as a top-5 fantasy quarterback. We are taking that narrative to the bank and hoping this run-first, talented offense comes out swinging on Sunday against the Detroit Lions.

We all fell in love with the Lions on Hard Knocks this season, but the fact is the team's defense is ranked 26th overall by Pro Football Focus for a reason. The potential is there, but there isn’t a ton of proven talent (yet). I expect the Eagles’ offense to shine in their first game of the season and give the Lions a loss to start their season.

🚑 Noteworthy players on the injury report. Nice rundown here if you want to get a jump on start/sit decisions. Keep an eye on Allen Lazard & George Kittle, specifically.

🤦 Patrick Mahomes apologizes to fantasy football players. Oh no.

🤐 Did Lamar Jackson slip up? Don't let J.K. Dobbins hear this.

❌ Is Zach Wilson hurt or did he get benched? This doesn't sound good at all.

📺 Why Matthew is now the world's biggest CMC fan. Please stay healthy, Christian.

🚀 Fantasy Life making moves. Let's give Dwain McFarland, our new Director of Analytics and Lead Fantasy Analyst, a huge welcome.

Who is going to win tonight? The Rams or the Bills?

We are super excited to announce a regular partnership with a premiere DFS content site, One Week Season. Each week, high stakes pro JMToWin will be sharing his thoughts on how to win at DFS. Take it away, JM...

"You play to win the game." — Herm Edwards

"Nobody said it was easy. No one ever said it would be this hard." — Coldplay

"I'm good at fantasy."

That was where it started for me.

"I'm good at fantasy. I'm sure I'll dominate DFS."

And I did.

The end.

But not really.

In fact, not at all.

My family has always loved games. Card games, board games, games with tiles, games with funny rules. It doesn't matter — we'll play. Every summer, it seems, there's a new favorite game in the mix.

But my wife would disagree with Herm Edwards. ("Hello! You play to win the game. You don't play to just play it.") She's happy to "just play games."

There are other members of my family, however, who might think they're playing to win — but who apparently, in all actuality, disagree with Herm. They're really just playing to play.

DFS is a strategy game.

If you open your inbox on Thursdays this year, these words will become tattooed on your brain.

DFS is a strategy game — and the majority of the field (unbeknownst to them) apparently disagrees with Herm. They might think they're playing to win, but they're really just playing to play.

▶️ DFS is not a game of maximizing points.

▶️ DFS is about maximizing paths to a first-place finish.

▶️ Once we understand this, our whole world changes.

What now?

You'll find me in your inbox on Thursdays this season, breaking down key strategy points around DFS.

If you would like to dive more deeply into what we mean when we say "DFS is a strategy game," you can hang out on One Week Season to start your journey (you can also pick up free DFS Education courses to help you on your way).

 Note 1: code LIFE saves you 20% on all OWS subscriptions.

 Note 2: all of our DFS tools, research, and strategy content are FREE Week 1 (no CC required).

Note 3: I'll see you in your inbox next week — and I'll see you at the top of the leaderboards this weekend.